欧元分家要趁早

    如果欧洲弱国继续留在欧元区内，两大问题就不可能得到解决。一是政客和监管机构讨论最多的巨额主权债务，像希腊和意大利等国的债务/GDP比率都已经超过了100%。第二个问题更严重，欧猪五国葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙由于生产成本过高（尤其是相对于德国），严重缺乏竞争力。西班牙和意大利的制造商们在与进口商品的竞争中纷纷败下阵来，倒闭无数。

    这种竞争力差距是十年来逐渐形成的，主要源于欧洲“核心”国家和“外围”国家间惊人的劳工成本差异。从1999年至2011年，西班牙单位劳动成本——生产一辆汽车或一部电脑所需的工资和福利——每年增长4.3%，意大利增长3.4%，爱尔兰增长4.1%，而德国每年仅增长0.9%。据布托估算，这使得外围国家的竞争力落后于核心国家高达30-40%。由此，意大利出口占全球比重已从上世纪90年代末的5%下降到了去年的约2%。

    如果继续留在欧元区，外围国家要解决竞争力问题就只能通过紧缩政策——让高失业率压低工资，加税以及缩减政府开支。“这个过程可能需要10年，”布托表示。更糟的是，这些国家的债务和付息仍以欧元计价并保持增长，但税收却在下降。这些国家出现债务违约后要留在欧元区，几乎是不可能的。“欧洲央行一直在向弱国的银行业提供支持，”伦敦政治经济学院（London School of Economics）的查尔斯•古德哈特称。“抵押品主要是这些国家的主权债券。如果这些债券违约，向银行提供的所有救助将中止，导致银行倒闭。”

    尽早退出，可以一石二鸟地解决债务和竞争力这两大问题。布托认为，有可能外围国家会逐一退出。他在研究中总结称，虽然退出的合法性尚不明确，但如果这对于一个国家的经济存亡至关重要，在国际法中是站得住脚的。退出前也不需要议会的批准。这很重要，因为事前必须保密。

    译者：早稻米

    The continent's weaker nations can't possibly solve their two big problems if they remain in the common currency. The first problem is the one the politicians and regulators talk about most: the huge overhang of sovereign debt, exceeding 100% of GDP in nations such as Greece and Italy. But the second is even more important. Europe's PIIGS -- Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain -- all suffer from a drastic loss of competitiveness because they face an excessive cost of production, especially compared with Germany. That disparity has decimated manufacturers in Spain and Italy struggling to compete with imports.

    The competitiveness gap was a decade in the making. Its main source is the shocking divergence in labor costs between Europe's two tiers, which we'll call the "core" and "peripheral" nations. From 1999 to 2011, unit labor costs -- the wages and benefits required to produce a car or computer -- rose 4.3% a year in Spain, 3.4% in Italy, and 4.1% in Ireland, compared with a 0.9% annual increase in Germany. That leaves the peripheral countries with a competitiveness gap of 30% to 40% vs. the core nations, by Bootle's estimate. As a result, Italy's exports as a share of the world total dropped from 5% in the late 1990s to about 2% last year.

    If they remain in the euro, peripheral countries must solve their competitiveness problem through austerity -- by letting high unemployment grind down wages, by raising taxes, and by slashing government spending. "That process could take 10 years," says Bootle. Worse, their debt and interest payments would remain in euros and keep rising, while tax receipts fall. It would be nearly impossible for those nations to default on their debt and stay in the eurozone. "The ECB has been supporting the banks in weak countries," says Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics. "The collateral is largely their sovereign bonds. If they default, all aid to the banks would cease, causing their collapse."

    An immediate exit could solve both the debt and the competitiveness problems in a single stroke. Bootle believes it's likely that peripheral countries will begin to split off one by one. In his study, he concludes that although the legality of an exit is fuzzy, it can be justified under international law as essential to a country's economic survival. Nor would it require approval of Parliament prior to departure. That's important, given the need for secrecy.