西班牙有话要说

    如果在西班牙救助协议上食言，德国在投资者中间的信誉可能受损，未来再推动达成协议可能会受到质疑。但这是德国的强硬姿态，很多投资者相信这是引起西班牙注意的唯一办法。毕竟，周二西班牙又公布，今年前8个月联邦政府赤字同比增长近5%。西班牙保守党政府曾承诺将今年的预算赤字降至GDP的6.3%，低于2011年的8.9%。随着预算赤字上升，西班牙稳定赤字显然无望，更别提降低赤字了。在这种情况下，人们可以将德国的施压视为合理，因为德国同意如果西班牙迈向稳定财政体制之路，就能获得这笔救助资金。

    如果西班牙想得到1,000亿欧元的救助资金，它在宣布预算时可能就做出更大幅的削减。西班牙政府或许认为自己受到了威逼，但它对威逼并不陌生。毕竟，西班牙在面对负债累累的各省区时，状况是相似的。周二， 西班牙历来较穷的省区安达卢西亚就暗示称，可能需要从联邦政府获得50亿欧元的救助资金才能收支相抵。

    长时间以来，像安达卢西亚这样的贫穷省区和埃斯特雷马杜拉等其他省区从联邦政府获得的税收收入比例与它们对西班牙总体GDP的贡献不成比例。换言之，像加泰罗尼亚、巴利阿里群岛和马德里这样的省区对整个体系的贡献高于它们所获得的。虽然这听起来不公平，但通常联邦安排就是这样，如果欧洲考虑构建一个更紧密的财政联盟，就需要效法这样的制度。

    但从西班牙身上，我们也可以看到在互异的省区间实现财政集权可能产生的一些问题。拥有西班牙第二大城市巴塞罗那和第二语言卡泰兰的西班牙省区加泰罗尼亚的领导人们已威胁要退出西班牙联邦，除非它能获得更多财政自主权。他们还声称，将财富转出加泰罗尼亚是导致该省当前预算赤字达8%上下的原因。

    西班牙保守党领导人不像自由党人，强烈反对给予省区更多自治。他们谴责加泰罗尼亚领导人，称这只会让情况雪上加霜。他们指出，加泰罗尼亚不能合法退出，即使退出，将来它如果作为一个独立国家申请加入欧盟，西班牙也会“无限期”地投反对票。事情可能根本不会到这一步，据报道，依然非常保守的西班牙军方已暗示，如果加泰罗尼亚投票退出联盟，他们将出兵占领该省区。目前的西班牙军方沿袭自西班牙内战时期，当年弗朗西斯科•佛朗哥将军曾推翻政府并建立了长达36年的独裁统治。.

    但所有这些退出讨论可能只是谈判筹码。与西班牙其他17个省区一样，加泰罗尼亚完全被债券市场拒之门外。这意味着它需要联邦政府代其出售债券，最近这也变得很难。两周前，加泰罗尼亚要求从180亿欧元的省区救助基金中获得50亿欧元。它告诉联邦政府，他们希望这些资金不附加任何先决条件。但联邦政府已经拒绝并指出，继巴塞罗那房地产崩盘后债务大增的加泰罗尼亚基本上需要缩减开支，才能使其财政回到正轨上来。

    虽然退出对于某些人可能只是谈判筹码，也有真正的卡泰兰民族主义者将此视为一次最终从西班牙独立出去的机会。去年在加泰罗尼亚生活的人中仅25%投票支持退出，但本周发布的最新民意调查显示，支持率已增加了一倍刚刚超过50%。

    By potentially reneging on the Spanish deal, Germany could damage its credibility with investors who may come to doubt its word when brokering future deals. But this is Germany's way of playing hardball, which for many investors is the only way to get Spain's attention. After all, Spain reported Tuesday that the federal government's budget deficit is up nearly 5% in the first eight months of the year compared to the same time last year. Spain's conservative government promised to cut the nation's budget deficit to 6.3% of GDP this year from 8.9% in 2011. With the budget deficit up, it is clear that Spain will fail to get anywhere close to stabilizing its deficit, let alone reducing it. In that case one can interpret the German pressure as justified as they agreed to let Spain have the money thinking that it was on its way to stabilizing its fiscal regime.

    Spain will probably need to make more impressive cuts when it announces its budget if it wants its 100 billion euro. The Spanish government may think it is being bullied about, but it is no stranger to bullying. After all, it has to deal with a similar situation with its own provinces, which are drowning in debt. Yesterday, Andalucía, which has traditionally been one of the poorer provinces in Spain, hinted that it may need a 5 billion euro bailout from the federal government to make ends meet.

    The poorer provinces, like Andalucía and others like Extremadura, already receive a disproportionate level of taxes based on their contribution to Spain's overall GDP. That means the richer states like Catalonia, the Balearic Islands and Madrid usually pay more into the system than they get out. While that sounds unfair, it's a normal federal arrangement, something that Europe should look to emulate as it considers forming a closer fiscal union.

    But Spain offers a glimpse of some of the troubles that come with the centralization of fiscal power among disparate states. The leaders of the Spanish province of Catalonia, home to Spain's second city, Barcelona, and second language, Catalan, have threatened to secede from the Spanish federation unless it is given more control over its finances. It believes that the transfer of wealth out of Catalonia was the reason why it is currently running a budget deficit of around 8%.

    Spain's conservative leaders, who, unlike their liberal counterparts, are vehemently against granting provinces further autonomy, have criticized Catalonia's leaders, saying that it has basically made a bad situation even worse. They noted that Catalonia cannot legally secede but if it did, Spain would veto its eventual application to the EU as an independent nation "indefinitely." It might not even get that far as the Spanish military, which remains very conservative, has reportedly hinted that they stand ready to invade and occupy Catalonia if it votes to secede from the union. The current Spanish military, after all, descends from the days of the Spanish civil war where General Francisco Franco overthrew the government and set up a dictatorship that would last for 36 years.

    But all the talk about secession may just be a bargaining chip. Catalonia, like the rest of Spain's 17 provinces, is totally shut out of the debt markets. That means it needs the federal government to sell bonds on its behalf, which has been difficult lately. Two weeks ago, Catalonia asked the federal government for 5 billion euros from the 18 billion euro provincial bailout fund. It told the federal government that they wanted the money with no preconditions. But the federal government has refused, noting that Catalonia, which has racked up major debts following the property crash in Barcelona, basically needs to cut spending to put its finances on the right track.

    While secession may just be a bargaining chip to some, there are real Catalan nationalists that see this as an opportunity to finally win independence from Spain. Last year only 25% of people living in Catalonia would vote for secession, but recent polling out this week show that support has doubled to just over 50%.