谷歌Vs.苹果：股民该买谁？

    2009年，苹果的净收益有史以来首次超过谷歌。三年以后，苹果的净收益已经是谷歌的三倍。预计到2013年，苹果的净收益会达到谷歌的四倍，增长率则会是谷歌的两倍。通过这组数据，可以看出智能手机市场和广告市场在规模上的巨大差距。这还能算是势均力敌的竞争吗？以下这张表格有力地说明，过去的三年中，苹果的表现究竟比谷歌好上多少。

    如果你觉得看起来简直不可思议，不妨再看看这两家公司的收入对比图。iPhone面世之前，苹果的销售额仅比谷歌稍多一点。实际上，那点差距不足挂齿。不过到了如今，苹果的销售额已经把谷歌远远甩在了后头，差距之大令人咋舌。预计等到今年的账目公布时，苹果的收入可能会接近谷歌的四倍。

    做个对比，2007年苹果的收入仅比谷歌多出50%。也就是说，2007到2012这五年间，这个差距被放大了8倍。而且，种种迹象表明，到了2013、2014和2015年，当苹果朝着单季销售2亿部iPhone的目标持续迈进时，这种差距还会继续扩大。据估计，明年iPhone的销售量可达到每季度约4,000万到5,000万部。而早在2009年，当时苹果单季售出800万部iPhone的年代，谷歌的收入就已经无法赶上苹果了。

    以上事实已经证明，在2007年之后，任何试图辩称谷歌的买入时机比苹果更好的人都是大错特错。他们不仅没有看到近年来苹果的股市表现比谷歌好上三倍，还弄错了净收益的增长和估值的情况。以下的图表对苹果和谷歌的收入增长速度进行了对比。我们可以看到，即使苹果的收入达到谷歌的四倍，净收益是谷歌的三倍，苹果在这两项指标上的增长速度依然比谷歌快上一倍——而且外界普遍预测，苹果在2013年依然能够保持这样的增长势头。

    尽管在收入和净收益方面，苹果都把谷歌远远甩在后头，但是苹果在交易估值上却远低于谷歌。所以，苹果不仅在收入、增长率、市场规模、提升潜力上都力压谷歌，相对估值也更低：它的市销率、市盈率、市现率都远低于谷歌。

    In 2009, Apple earned more than Google in net income for the first time in its history. Three years later, Apple reported three times as much in net income as Google. In 2013, Apple is expected to quadruple Google's net income and report twice Google's growth rate. That gives you a sense of the size of the smartphone market relative to the ad market. Can this even be remotely characterized as a close contest? This chart below tells a very powerful visual story of how much Apple has outperformed Google over the past three years.

    If you think that looks dramatic, take a look at the revenue comparison of these two companies. Before the advent of the iPhone, Apple had maintained a small lead on Google when it came to sales. It was never really anything very significant. Today, it's mind-boggling how much Apple has pulled away from Google in terms of sales. When the books are closed on the year, Apple will likely have reported nearly four times Google's revenue.

    In 2007, by contrast, Apple only reported 50% more in revenue than Google. Thus, the gap in sales between Google and Apple has widened by a factor of eight between 2007 and 2012. And everything points to that gap widening even further in 2013, 2014 and 2015 as Apple gets closer to selling 200 million iPhones a quarter. Apple is expected to sell roughly 40 to 50 million iPhones per quarter next year. Google still hasn't been able to surpass what Apple made in revenue when it sold only 8 million iPhones a quarter back in 2009.

    What this all demonstrates is that anyone who has argued that Google was a better buying opportunity than Apple in any year since 2007 has been dead wrong. They have been dead wrong not only from a stock performance perspective given that Apple's stock has outperformed Google by a factor of 3-1 over the past several years now, but they have been wrong from a pure earnings growth and valuation perspective as well. The chart below compares Apple's revenue growth to Google's. Notice how even though Apple reports four times Google's revenue, and even though Apple reports three times as much in net income as Google, Apple still grows at twice the pace of Google on both the top and bottom-line on a percentage basis — and it is widely expected it will do so in 2013 as well:

    Despite the fact that Apple has been able to far outpace Google's top and bottom-line growth, Apple still trades at a far lower valuation than Google. So Apple not only makes more money than Google, grows its earnings faster than Google, operates in a larger market than Google, has much greater upside earnings potential than Google, but it also trades at a substantially lower valuation. Apple's price-to-sales ratio, price-earnings ratio and price-to-cash ratio are currently much lower than Google's.