谷歌Vs.苹果：股民该买谁？

    且不考虑苹果本周将推出备受期待的iPad Mini，那些关注苹果的顶尖分析师们认为，在2013财政年度中，苹果的净收益有望达到630亿美元，收入有望达到2,300亿美元。这意味着比起2012财政年度，苹果的净收益增幅将高达47.3%，而收入增幅高达43.75%。所以直说吧，这家市值最高的公司今年的收入增幅为43.75%。

    相比之下，根据华尔街分析师们的共识，谷歌的净收益增长率大概为18.7%。分析师们预计，修正过后谷歌的净收益为168亿美元，收入为536亿美元。与苹果不同，谷歌的表现很少大幅超出分析师的预测。比如在过去四个季度中，谷歌的业绩分别比预测值低出9.5%，高出4.50%，高出0.80%，低出15.20%。

    另一方面，在大多数季度中，苹果的表现都会超出预期。实际上，分析师们还有一年的时间来提高自己的预期，以适应苹果屡屡惊人的表现。随着时间的推移，苹果还会不断推出创新的产品和服务，所以目前预计的630亿美元净收益和2,300亿美元收入届时还会水涨船高。

    苹果不仅在事实上赢得了2009至2012年的竞争，还极有可能在明年继续赢下去。不过也许从某些方面来看，谷歌会比苹果更适合投资呢？以下是预计将在2013年上演的谷歌和苹果的对决形势。

    我们不妨换个角度思考。如果有一位投资者的银行账户上有1万亿美元，按照目前的市值，她可以直接收购苹果或者谷歌。那么，只有根本不在乎钱的人才会花2,235亿美元去收购谷歌，而不是花5717亿美元去收购苹果。为什么呢？因为苹果不仅拥有1,300亿美元的现金（根据上周五的报道），而且苹果的股本回报率也远高于谷歌。

    明年，苹果将偿还所有净市值的14.5%，而谷歌则会偿还9.4%。这意味着如果这两家公司都停止增长，苹果需要6年半的时间来偿还所有净市值，谷歌则需要超过11年的时间。

    鉴于苹果在全球手机市场的霸主地位，苹果至少还可以维持3年爆炸性放任增长，之后还能维持3-5年的中速增长。

    那些认为苹果将会抵达某个高峰，然后像1999年那样开始衰败的人，并不明白这个道理。即使苹果的股价仅仅维持现在的水平，在接下来的四年内，它的所有市值也可以转变为现金。就算苹果真如某些人预计的那样垮掉了，它也能转为私有化。这就是为什么苹果股价今天还在继续走高，并将持续走高的原因；也是为何在接下来三年内，投资苹果显然比投资谷歌更加明智的原因。

    作者安迪•扎基是Bullish Cross资产管理公司的基金经理，该公司在多个不同的投资组合中持有重量级的苹果股票。本文仅代表作者个人观点。

    译者：严匡正

    Without taking into account the highly anticipated introduction of the iPad Mini on Tuesday, top analysts covering Apple expect the company to report roughly $63 billion in net income on $230 billion in revenues for the 2013 fiscal year. That would represent roughly 47.3% earnings growth and 43.75% revenue growth when compared to Apple's fiscal 2012. So just to get this straight, the largest market cap company is about to grow its earnings by 43.75% this year.

    Google, by contrast, is expected to grow its net income by roughly 18.7% according to a consensus of Wall Street analysts. The analysts are looking for Google to report roughly $16.8 billion in adjusted net income on $53.6 billion in revenue. Unlike Apple, Google very rarely surprises analyst expectations by any large degree. Over the past four quarters, for example, Google missed by 9.5%, beat by 4.50%, beat by 0.80% and missed by 15.20%.

    Apple, on the other hand, tends to decimate expectations in most quarters. In fact, there has yet to be a year where analysts haven't had to scramble to adjusted their estimates higher as Apple comes in and destroys expectations. So that $63 billion in net income on $230 billion in revenue estimate is likely to move up as the year progresses and as Apple introduces new innovative products and services.

    Apple has not only objectively won the debate from 2009 to 2012, it is largely expected to win next year. But somehow and based on some measure Google is supposed to be a better investment than Apple? Here is what the Google v. Apple story looks like going ahead to 2013:

    Here is another way to think about all of this. If an investor had $1 trillion in her bank account and had the ability to buy Apple or Google outright in cash at their current market capitalizations, only someone who didn't care about money would buy Google for $223.5 billion over Apple at $571.7 billion. The reason? Given that Apple not only already has $130 billion of that market cap in cash (as of this Friday's report), Apple's return on equity is much larger than Google's.

    Next year Apple will return 14.5% of its entire net market capitalization while Google will return 9.4%. That means if both companies stopped growing, it would only take Apple about six and a half years to completely pay off its entire net market capitalization while it would take Google more than 11-years to accomplish the same feat.

    Apple still has at least 3-years of explosive growth ahead of it based on where it stands in the global handset market, and another 3-5 after that of moderate growth.

    That's what all of these people who think Apple is going to hit some major peak and then collapse like its 1999 don't quite understand. If Apple merely just remained at this current price-level, it would have its entire market cap in cash over the next four years. If it collapsed as some believe that it will, the company would simply be able to take itself private. That's why Apple continues to push higher, why it will continue to push higher and why it is clearly a much better investment opportunity than Google going into the next three years.

    Andy M. Zaky is a fund manager at Bullish Cross Asset Management, which owns a significant position in Apple as a core holding across several different portfolios. The opinions expressed here are his own.