雅芳缘何不再是买家眼里的香饽饽

    雅芳依然在接受《反海外腐败法》（Foreign Corrupt Practices Act）的调查。这项调查不仅让他们付出了高额的代价，还失去了许多潜在客户。检察官们一直在调查雅芳的高管们是否接受了来自海外市场的贿赂。面对质询和审查，公司已经花费了几亿美元支付法律费用和专家费用——这还不包括任何判决结果将导致的支出。伦敦大西洋证券公司（Atlantic Equities）的分析师维多利亚·科林称，雅芳的反腐败调查“可能会让它变成烫手的山芋”。

    历史情况也显示，雅芳对收购不感兴趣。公司董事会拒绝了科蒂按每股23.25美元出价的100亿美元收购要约，并很快从强生公司（Johnson & Johnson）挖到经验丰富的麦科伊就任首席执行官。【雅芳称会考虑科蒂在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）的支持下提出的更为优厚的报价，不过科蒂随后撤回了收购要约。】

    短短半年的时间，董事会的观念可能不至于转变到想要去接受收购——尤其是新一届首席执行官上任不久，还没来得及彻底实施重整计划。没有董事会的首肯，这类收购也就不会发生。

    以消费者为导向的私人股本公司旧金山股本合伙人（San Francisco Equity Partners）的任事股东斯科特·波特说：“在这样的情况下，私人股本也不会进行恶意收购。”

    私人股本交易最大的障碍是雅芳的现金流问题和高资产负债率。

    雅芳的运转资金在第三季度减少了2,700万美元，降至2.2亿美元。尽管首席财务官金伯利·罗斯说公司将积极减少开支，雅芳依然决心在商业上再次投资。尽管这些举措很有必要，但是无法缓解现金流的压力。

    晨星公司的拉什为了衡量雅芳的杠杆率，查看了雅芳的债务与税息折旧及摊销前利润之比，这一比率在过去五年的平均值为2.0。晨星预计在接下来的五年中，这一比率将会升至平均3.2。她指出，该比率已经远远超出其他化妆品公司，例如欧莱雅（L'Oreal）（比率分别为0.8和0.2）和雅诗兰黛（Estee Lauder）（比率分别为1.1和0.5）。

    拉什在一份电子邮件中写道：“雅芳债台高筑。部分原因在于，公司的资本支出和股息支出要高于其产生的营运现金流。我们认为，雅芳面临的高负债率会让想要收购该公司的私人股本望而却步。”想要增加杠杆率，私人股本公司将会举步维艰。

    旧金山股本合伙人的波特说：“我长期关注各种事物的发展，借此促进增长。一般情况下，债务是发展的大敌。”

    译者：严匡正

    Avon's costly and ongoing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act investigation could put off any potential buyer. Prosecutors have been investigating whether or not Avon executives accepted bribes in several overseas markets. The company has already spent hundreds of millions on legal and professional fees associated with the inquiry and compliance reviews—and that's even before any settlement costs. Atlantic Equities analyst Victoria Collin says that Avon's FCPA probe "probably makes it a little bit untouchable." 

    History also suggests that Avon (AVP) isn't interested in putting itself up for sale: The company's board turned down Coty's initial $10 billion bid at $23.25 per share and installed McCoy, a Johnson & Johnson veteran, soon after. (Avon did say it would consider a sweetened offer that included backing from Berkshire Hathaway, but Coty went on to withdraw the proposal.)

    It's unlikely the board's thinking has altered so significantly in half a year that it would jump behind a deal -- especially with a new CEO, who hasn't had the chance to fully implement a turnaround plan. And these kinds of deals don't tend to happen without the consent of the board.

    "You haven't really seen private equity go hostile in these types of situations," says Scott Potter, managing partner of San Francisco Equity Partners, a consumer-focused private equity firm.

    The biggest hurdle for a private equity deal is Avon's cash flow issues and high level of debt.

    Cash from operations fell $27 million to $220 million during the third quarter, and while CFO Kimberly Ross said the company will aggressively cut costs, Avon has also committed to reinvesting in the business. While necessary, these moves won't loosen the pressure on cash flow.

    Morningstar's Lash looks at Avon's debt to EBIDTA ratio as a measure of leverage, which over the last five years averaged 2.0 times. Morningstar forecasts it will increase to 3.2 times on average over the next five years. She noted that Avon's levels greatly exceed beauty companies L'Oreal (0.8 times and 0.2 times, respectively) and Estee Lauder (1.1 times and 0.5 times, respectively).

    "Avon's debt was amassed partly because the firm was expending more on capital expenditures and on dividends than it was generating in operating cash flow," she wrote in an email. "We think the high level of debt that AVP is already operating with would be an impediment to a private equity firm being interested in a deal."

    A private equity firm would have a hard time adding more leverage.

    "I tend to put my growth lens on everything," says Potter of San Francisco Equity Partners, "which is what can I do to get that thing growing again, and typically debt is the enemy of a growth thesis."