2013投资热点：华尔街看好中国

    不确定性四处弥漫。投资者在哪里能找到一些安心？

    赫罗：这样的不确定性事实上对股票投资者是件好事，特别是像我们这样的价值投资者。我们倒是愿意在低价时买进股票。而且，谈到买进质优价廉的股票，经济不确定性和宏观经济不稳定实际上帮了我们大忙。因此，如果你打算中长期投资——我得说，所谓投资就得中长期——现在是非常好的时机。

    莱维伦茨，你对新兴市场颇有研究。你认为投资者可以安心投资新兴市场吗？

    莱维伦茨：争议代表着投资机会，我同意这一点。现在真正是投资者（而非投机者）入市的时机。我认为，这一点对于新兴市场不能一概而论。中国市场可能是争议较多的一个时长。人们对它的权力交接交接有很多担忧。人们对于中国经济经过十年的两位数增长后，长期均衡增长率将何去何从有很多的担忧，对于中国的会计问题和企业治理也有很多疑虑。而中国也的确有一些出色的公司。因此，新兴市场中我看好中国。

    奥斯，如果普遍来看，你认为投资者可以放心投资的地方在哪里？

    奥斯：目前我没有看到哪里可以让人很放心。我们事实上是短线看空——这也是2008年以来我们首次回避投资股市。我们担心美国经济正在放缓。而与此同时，中国经济已经放缓，而欧洲经济即将步入衰退。因此，短期内我们告诉投资者要谨慎。但我们依然相信，我们正处于一个长期牛市之中，预计2013年下半年股市表现会相当不错。假如华盛顿最终就税收政策和减税措施达成长期协议，美国经济中大量被抑制的需求将得到释放。欧洲可能已经进入了复苏模式。而且，我们已经两年来首次开始买进中国股票。

    苏博拉玛尼亚，美国股市是你重点关注的领域。它的情况怎么样？

    苏博拉玛尼亚：在美国，过去一年，几乎所有有海外业务（不论比重大小）的股票都遭到了相当的抛售，目前估值极有吸引力。因此，我认为，现在确实是买入一些全球周期性股票的好时机，它们的估值比一、两年前便宜了很多。

    Uncertainty abounds. Where can an investor turn for a little comfort?

    Herro: This uncertainty is actually good for an equity investor, especially one who has a value bent, as we do. So we'd rather be buying stocks at low prices. And in order to get quality at low prices, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic instability are actually very good for us. So if you have a medium- or long-term investment horizon -- which, I would argue, is what investing is all about -- this is a very good time.

    Justin, the emerging world is where you spend a lot of time. Do you find comfort for investors there?

    Leverenz: I agree that controversy represents meaningful opportunity. It really is an entry point for investors rather than speculators. I think that that's not broadly true in emerging markets. I think China is perhaps the one really significant area of controversy. There is a lot of concern about political transition. There is enormous concern about where normalized growth will be after a decade of double-digit growth and a lot of concern about accounting difficulties, corporate governance in China. And there are some really wonderful companies. So I like China within the emerging world.

    Steve, you look broadly at everything that's available. Where do you find a little comfort for investors?

    Auth: Well, right now I don't find a lot of comfort. We're actually fairly near-term bears -- the first time we've pulled back on equities since 2008. We are nervous that the U.S. economy is slowing. It's coming at the same time that you've got a slowdown in China and Europe heading into recession. So near term, we're telling people to be cautious. However, we still think we're in a secular bull market for equities, and we think the second half of 2013 could be pretty good. We're going to have a lot of pent-up demand released on the economy, presuming Washington finally comes to a long-term agreement on tax policy and entitlements. Europe probably enters a recovery mode. And we've started to buy China for the first time in two years now.

    Savita, U.S. equities are your focus. How do things look to you?

    Subramanian: In the U.S., equities with any width of foreign exposure have sold off significantly over the year and are now trading at a pretty attractive valuation. So I think this is actually a good entry point for buying some of the global cyclicals that could be a lot cheaper than they were a year or two ago.