2013投资热点：华尔街看好中国

    通过投资美国股市可以成为一位相当国际化的投资者，有些人忽视了这一点。

    苏博拉玛尼亚：的确如此——美国公司40%或更多的销售额来自海外。这确实是一个全球多元化相当高的股票市场。

    福斯，债券是你重点关注的领域。一个大问题是：普遍观点一直认为利率会走高，但事实是没有。你认为什么时候会走高？

    福斯：我希望我知道。我的意思是，我们还是面对现实吧，债券的定价早已高高在上。按常识判断，一旦主要央行退后，利率很可能就会上升。有一些观点认为未来利率会下降，但最终结果（我认为这是最有力的论据）是利率上升。可能不会出现上世纪70年代末的状况（我希望不会），但利率会长期走高。现在，这是一个坏消息。但这也是一个好消息。只有当你与债券打交道的时间足够久，你才能知道该怎么做。你会说：“别再盯着今天的糟糕收益以及短期内可能令人心惊的亏损，多看看好消息。”而真正的好消息是，如果顺利的话，未来利率将上升，再投资回报也将上升；一切都取决于如何管理投资组合。与此同时，面临的风险也非常具体。这就是当前债市的本质。债市本质上就没那么激动人心。我的意思是，股市充满起伏，也更激动人心。但如果能提前打算，也能赚到不错的钱。

    利率是涨是跌，这个问题对于希望获得收益的很多投资者而言很重要。他们喜欢看到利率走高。奥斯，你怎么看？

    奥斯：我们一直告诉投资者，下一个可能出现大面积投资损失的领域就是美国国债。但时间可能是在几年之后，因为我们的美联储（Fed）决定在一段时间内保持利率低位。因此，我们认为短时间内不会出现债市抛盘，坦率说，2013年可能也不会。但会在某一时间出现。如果准备投资3年，我们认为可能不太适宜。会亏钱的。

    是的。苏博拉玛尼亚，这是你一直关注的另一个领域。

    苏博拉玛尼亚：没错。我认为利率回升事实上对股市是件好事，但对某些行业可能不利。在标普指数中，我最担心的是公用事业和电信类股，这些股票当前交易价格对应的市盈率已达到了荒谬的水平。“有点像是债券泡沫已经转到了股市，推高了类似债券股票的估值：管制类公用事业股票、电信和烟草股票。”这些股票全部都相当的昂贵。我估计，如果利率大幅上升，这些股票会遭到大举抛售。

    Some people overlook the fact that you can be a very global investor through U.S. equities.

    Subramanian: Exactly -- 40% or more of sales of U.S. companies are derived from overseas. They're actually a pretty globally diversified equity market.

    Dan, bonds are your focus. The big question: The conventional view has been that interest rates must go up, and they keep not going up. When will they?

    Fuss: Oh, I wish I knew. I mean, let's face it, bonds are priced in general higher than a kite. So common sense tells you that when and if the major central banks back off, rates will probably go up. There are some arguments for lower rates in the future, but the net outcome -- I think the strongest argument -- is for higher rates. Maybe not like the late '70s -- I hope not -- but a secular uptrend in interest rates. Now, that's the bad news. It's also the good news. You only know how to do this when you're out and about long enough, particularly with bonds. You say, "Take your focus away from the lousy income today and the horrifying capital loss that might be in front of you, and focus on the good news." And the good news literally, depending on how you run the portfolio, is hopefully interest rates will go up in the future and reinvestment returns will rise. And you're dealing with very specific risk in the meantime. And that's the nature of bonds today. Bonds by their nature are not exciting. I mean, stocks are exciting. But you can make darn good money in bonds if you think ahead.

    This issue of what's going to happen with interest rates is important for a lot of investors who want yield. They would love to have higher interest rates. Steve?

    Auth: We've been telling our investors that the next place you're going to lose a lot of money is inTreasury bonds. It's probably going to take a few years to get there, though, because you've got a Fed that is determined to keep rates low for a while. So we think the selloff of bonds is still out there somewhere, but probably not in 2013, frankly. But at some point. And if you take a three-year view, for us it's just not the place you want to be. You're going to lose money there.

    Right. Savita, this is another thing you've got to pay attention to.

    Subramanian: Oh, sure. I think a backup in rates would actually be good for the market, but it could hurt some sectors. The ones I worry about most in the S&P are utilities and telecom, which are actually trading at pretty ridiculous multiples at this point. I mean, it kind of feels like the bond bubble moved into the equity market and pushed up the valuations of the bond proxies, which are regulated utilities, telecom, tobacco stocks. These are all quite expensive. And I think that they could sell off pretty dramatically if we get a meaningful increase in interest rates.