2013投资热点：华尔街看好中国

    说得更具体一点。莱维伦茨，为什么你这么看好中国？

    莱维伦茨：人们对中国有很多的误读，包括政治和经济的误读，人们担心中国信贷如此迅猛的增长可能造成严重后果，担心中国房地产市场存在泡沫。这种误读掩盖了中国已经、并将继续取得的巨大成就。中国未来十年的年复合增长率将达到5%、6%或7%，即GDP规模再增5,000亿美元，这是世界上任何其他国家都难以企及的成绩。

    赫罗，在大多数人都认为要尽一切可能回避欧洲银行的时候，你投资欧洲银行的举动引起了关注。现在这些投资的情况怎么样？

    赫罗：由于法国、西班牙和意大利可能出现债务违约，人们一度认为这些银行一文不值。现在，我也从不认为希腊将走出困境，谁又知道葡萄牙会怎样呢？但爱尔兰的情况看起来正在好转。意大利将违约的假设是不正确的。对于很多优质的欧洲银行而言，它们唯一的过错就是总部设在欧洲，可能还持有一些意大利或西班牙的主权债券。你本可以按账面价值的25%或30%买入。 以意大利北部的联合圣保罗银行（ Intesa Sanpaolo）为例，该行的按揭贷款违约率极低。由于对主权债务危机的整体担忧，这些业务安全而乏味的银行股价一度被推至难以置信的低位。要进行这项投资，你必须相信这些相对安全的主权债券不会违约，这正是我们笃信的。你知道，过去四、五个月，它们的股价已经回升了50-60%。危机还没有结束，但我相信欧洲已经基本上脱离了险境。

    奥斯，有别于收益，你认为投资者应该从哪里寻找增长？

    奥斯：我们关注的一个领域是美国工业类股，我们认为美国正在出现某种程度的制造业复兴。未来三年我们的优势是，美国的能源价格相对低于世界其他地区。美国劳动力相对而言也已变得不那么昂贵了。因此，我们看好像卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）这样的公司。这是一家具有全球竞争力的大公司，但是也已经受到了中国经济放缓的影响。如果2013年下半年全球状况开始好转，我们相信这类股票将攀升。因此，我们看好拥有新兴市场业务的全球性周期类股。在美国，我们相信楼市将出现强劲复苏，看好拥有大量按揭贷款业务的银行。比如，太阳信托（SunTrust）就很有吸引力，它当前的估值很低。

    苏博拉玛尼亚，你认为增长在哪里？

    苏博拉玛尼亚：目前有个行业有点重现90年代末的高增长，但现金流更好，增长更稳定，这就是科技业。这是我看好的行业之一。该板块现在比年初时便宜。一些蓝筹科技股和蓝筹医药股也是如此。它们拥有丰富的后续产品线。股价非常便宜。而且，如果利率开始回升，股息投资者将撤出公用事业和电信股，届时这些板块就是他们想要进入的板块。因此，我们喜欢那种派息成长股：比如辉瑞（Pfizers）和礼来（Eli Lillys）。

    因此在科技股中，我们谈到的是微软（Microsoft）、谷歌（Google）和思科（Cisco）这样的公司吗？

    苏博拉玛尼亚：没错，正是这样。就是这些估值不断走低的大型老牌科技公司。人们担心它们未来将没有增长，但你知道，我想它们会和任何其他公司一样参与到周期性复苏之中。

    Let's get a little more specific. Justin, why are you so bullish on China?

    Leverenz: There are a lot of misconceptions about China -- political and economic misconceptions -- and the sense that there's got to be consequences associated with a very rapid increase in credit, that there's got to be a property bubble there. But that obscures the enormous progress that China has made and will continue to make. It will grow 5, 6, 7% compounding for a decade, and that means an additional half a trillion dollars of output, which no other country in the world can offer.

    David, you've gotten attention for investing in European banks, which most people thought were to be avoided at all costs. How's it working out?

    Herro: There was this assumption that these banks were worthless because France, Spain, and Italy were going to default on their debts. Now, I never thought that Greece was going to make it out of the woods, and who knows about Portugal? But Ireland looks like it's making progress. And to assume that Italy would default was just incorrect. For a lot of the quality European banks, their only crime was that they're based in Europe and they may have held sovereign debt of Italy or Spain. You could've bought them at 25% or 30% of book value. Take Intesa Sanpaolo in northern Italy, which has mortgages with extremely low defaults. These were safe, boring banks that were driven to unbelievably low prices because of the whole fear of the sovereign debt crisis. In order to make that investment, you had to believe that the relatively safer sovereigns weren't going to default, and that was our belief. You know, in the last four or five months, they've bounced 50, 60%. It's not over yet, but I think Europe is almost out of the woods.

    Steve, where would you guide investors looking for growth, as distinct from yield?

    Auth: Well, one place we look to is U.S. industrials, because we think there is a kind ofmanufacturing renaissance going on in the U.S. The advantage that we have over the next three years is relatively cheap energy relative to the rest of the world. U.S. labor has gotten relatively less expensive. So we like companies such as Caterpillar (CAT). That's a big, globally competitive company, which has been affected by the slowdown in China. And when the world starts to look like a better place in the second half of the year, we think stocks like that could run up. So we like global cyclicals for growth with that emerging-markets exposure. In the U.S. we like banks with heavy mortgage exposure because we see the housing business coming back pretty strong. For instance, SunTrust (STI) is pretty interesting and trading at a very cheap valuation.

    Savita, where do you see growth?

    Subramanian: Right now one of the sectors that has kind of morphed from the über-growth sector of the late '90s to more of a cash-return, stable-growth vehicle is technology. That's one of my favorite sectors. It's cheaper than it was at the beginning of the year. So some of those blue-chip techs -- and also blue-chip pharma. Their pipelines are refilling. The stocks are very cheap. And the dividend investors that are going to have to come out of utilities and telecom when rates start to go back up -- that's the place they're going to go to. So we like that sector as a kind of dividend-growth play: the Pfizers (PFE) and Eli Lillys (LLY) of the world.

    So in tech, are we thinking Microsoft (MST), Google (GOOG), Cisco (CSCO) -- those names?

    Subramanian: Yeah, sure, exactly. Big-cap, old-fashioned technology companies that have gotten cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. There are fears that they're ex-growth, but, you know, just like anything else, I think they'll participate in a cyclical recovery just as much as any other stock.