2013投资热点：华尔街看好中国

    奥斯：关于苹果（Apple），我有一点要说。你知道，这是一只很有争议的股票，在它不断向国际市场和其他行业扩张的过程中未来有如此之多的增长引擎。这是一家非常出色的公司。在我看来，苹果的问题是，它大多数利润都来自手机部门，利润率极为亮丽。因此，我认为，你或许可以分析苹果作为一家公司是成功的，但它的利润率存在压力，特别是随着三星（Samsung）等公司不断拓展智能手机市场。因此，我们在科技行业看好的一只股票是高通（Qualcomm），我把它叫做“军火制造商”，向正在酣战的苹果和三星出售弹药。它左右逢源，我不必担心最终谁会赢得智能手机之战。

    莱维伦茨，你现在看好哪些公司？

    莱维伦茨：我想印度软件公司已不再像10年前那样属于结构性成长型公司，它们更大程度上已是周期性公司。我持有印孚瑟斯（Infosys）和PCS Technology科技公司。它们都是很出色的公司，有巨大的机会可以沿着产业链扩张，与埃森哲（Accentures）和IBM等公司竞争。

    在中国，我要提到的公司是百度（Baidu）。我认为，它是一个极佳的投资机会。这家公司和世界上所有搜索引擎公司一样，具有天然的垄断倾向。百度这家公司，如今你能以明年预期每股收益的15倍买入。我想未来五年这家公司的年复合增长率可以轻松达到25%-30%，因此从数字上看非常诱人。

    赫罗，除了投资大银行，你还投资了很多海外的小公司，大多数美国人可能都没听说过。你看好哪些？

    赫罗：是的，在我们投资的小盘股中，比如就有一家日本公司广濑电子（Hirose Electric），专门生产消费电子产品的连接器。公司利润非常不错。他们很懂资本配置。目前股价较低。需要说明的是，在日本很容易获得偏低的估值。

    苏博拉玛尼亚，我想问问你关于资产配置的问题，对于今天的个人投资者来说，这好像不是个大问题。

    苏博拉玛尼亚：目前我非常看好股市。这与今天所有华尔街策略师的建议正好相反。我们定期跟踪华尔街平衡型基金的策略师们的平均股票配置权重。令人吃惊的是，从过去30年的数据来看，华尔街策略师们总体而言从未像今天这样看淡股市。他们建议给予股票44%的权重，远远低于过去几十年60-70%的基准。

    Auth: I'd just throw in one point on Apple (AAPL). You know, it is a controversial stock because it has so many growth drivers ahead of it in its expansion into the corporate world and into the international world. And it's a wonderful company. The issue for me on Apple is that most of its profits come from the phone division, and the margins are just spectacular. So I think you could have a case where Apple as a company is successful, but they get margin pressure, particularly with the Samsungs of the world coming into that smartphone market. And so one of our stocks in tech that we like is Qualcomm (QCOM), which I kind of view as the arms manufacturer selling bullets to companies in a shooting war -- Apple and Samsung. They win either way, and I don't have to worry about who wins the smartphone war.

    Justin, what are some companies that you like now?

    Leverenz: I think the Indian software companies have become not structural growth companies like they were 10 years ago but much more cyclical. I own Infosys (INFY) and PCS Technology. They're wonderful companies with massive opportunities in terms of expanding up the value chain and competing with the Accentures (ACN) and the IBM Globals (IBM) of the world.

    In China, the company I would mention is Baidu (BIDU). I think it's a really terrific opportunity here. It is a business like all search businesses around the globe that's got natural monopoly tendencies. Baidu is a company that you can acquire today on 15 times next year's earnings. I think it could easily grow 25% to 30% compounded in the next five years, so the math is reasonably compelling.

    David, besides investing in big banks, you invest in a lot of small, global companies that most Americans have never heard of. Who do you like?

    Herro: Well, in our small-cap strategy, for instance, there's a Japanese company called Hirose Electric. It makes connectors for consumer electronic gadgets. It's very profitable. They're good capital allocators. It sells at a low price. And again, being in Japan is conducive to low valuation.

    Savita, I want to ask you, then, about the asset-allocation question, because for individual investors today it is really a huge issue.

    Subramanian: I'm a big fan of equities at this point. That's basically the exact opposite of what all of the Wall Street strategists are recommending today. One of the things that we track on a regular basis is the average equity allocation of Wall Street strategists to equities in a balanced fund. And what's remarkable is that, if you look over the last 30 years, Wall Street strategists have never been, in aggregate, as bearish on equities as they are today. They're recommending an allocation of about 44% to equities, where the benchmark has been roughly between 60% and 70% over the last few decades.