2013投资热点：华尔街看好中国

    福斯：前两天早上，我作为一些基金投资委员会的主席就遇到了资产配置问题。这些基金的股票配置上限是70%，债券下限是30%。我们目前的配置就是30%债券，70%股票。我得说，如果情况没有变化，就按上限投资股票，按下限投资债券。

    奥斯：华尔街如此悲观的一个原因是我说的标普500指数的双顶。没人愿意讨论这一点，但到我办公室的人全都相信我们可能翻不过双顶。我说的是2000年和2007年3月达到的1550点顶部。你知道，如果将今天标普500指数的估值与2000年触顶时相比，美国GDP规模增长率为50%，全球GDP已经翻番。我想，要翻过双顶可能会有一番挣扎，但当我们翻过去时，你会看到华尔街变得更乐观了。你知道，市场中有10年期的标普500指数期货。这是一个掉期市场。如果今天你出去买一份10年期的标普500指数期货，期货价格比当前指数点位低了10%。

    哇！

    苏博拉玛尼亚：我想很多人可能都被吓坏了，如果十年前你买了股票，可能根本就没赚到钱。但人们都忘了我们现在已处于尾端。如果回顾股市历史，投资十年亏钱的概率是6%。问题是我们现在就在这6%内，所有人记得这一点。但事实的真相是，现在概率已变得有利，估值也变得有利，企业利润继续创下新高。

    还有什么好的、我们没有谈到的想法要分享？

    奥斯：我要补充两只股票：中国国航（Air China）。这是另一只走势落后的股票。随着中国经济复苏，该股必将受益于复苏之势，它的市场份额在上升，在亚洲航空业仍具有巨大的增长潜力。我们还看好西门子（Siemens），这家大公司将受益于德国和全球经济复苏。

    赫罗：如果在股市中深挖，哪些领域价格最便宜？在日本，丰田（Toyota）、Daiwa、佳能（Canon）等公司是人们可以随意买入的蓝筹股。有些欧洲金融公司的股价还没有反弹，比如瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）。它的私人银行平台非常出色，产生像年金一样的优异现金流。其他看好的欧洲蓝筹股是像戴姆勒（Daimler）这样的全球性公司，它不仅生产梅赛德斯（Mercedes）这样的豪车，也有普通商用车。因此，我认为投资者应该关注的是这类目前被冷落的质优价廉股。

    译者：杨智

   Fuss: I was faced with asset allocation yesterday morning as chair of the committee that does that for some funds, where we have maximum 70% equities and minimum 30% fixed. We're at 30% fixed, 70% equities. I would say, all other things being equal, go max equities and minimum bonds.

    Auth: One thing that makes Wall Street so bearish is what I call the double top on the S&P. And no one wants to talk about it, but guys come to my office all the time, and they all believe that we can't get through the double top. I'm referring to the 1550 top in 2000 and then March of 2007. And, you know, if you look at the valuation of the S&P today compared with when it hit that top in 2000, the U.S. GDP is 50% larger and the global GDP is double. I think there's going to be a little bit of a battle to get through it, but I think when we do, you'll see Wall Street get more bullish. You know, there's a market in 10-year futures on the S&P. It's a swap market. And if you go out today and try to buy the S&P 10 years from now, you can buy it at 10% below current levels.

    Wow!

    Subramanian: I think that everybody is spooked by the fact that for the last 10 years if you bought equities, you would have made no money essentially. But what everybody forgets is that we're living in the tail right now. So if you go back historically and look at the equity market, you had a 6% chance of losing money over a 10-year time horizon. The problem is that we're living in that 6%, and that's what everybody remembers. But the truth of the matter is that you've got probability on your side, you've got valuations on your side, and earnings continue to hit new highs.

    Any more best ideas to share, if we haven't touched on them?

    Auth: I'll add two other quick names: Air China. That's another stock that's underperformed. As China does recover, it's levered to that recovery, and it's growing share, and that's still a big growth business out in Asia. We also like Siemens (SI) as a big German recovery story and a global player.

    Herro: If you dig down in equities, what are some of the cheapest areas? In Japan companies like Toyota (TM), Daiwa (DWHAY), and Canon (CAJ) are blue chips that people can easily buy. Some of the European financials that still haven't rebounded, like Credit Suisse (CS), which has a great private bank platform that generates good annuity-like cash flows. Another European blue chip to like is a company like Daimler, which has a global presence, not only with Mercedes luxury vehicles but in commercial vehicles. So I think these are the types of things investors should be looking at: quality that's out of favor and selling at low prices.