黑石高管预言中国A股今年上涨20%

    黑石顾问合伙人公司（Blackstone Advisory Partners）副主席拜伦•维恩发表了2013年预测报告。拜伦每年都会对来年的经济、金融市场和政治局势进行预测，今年已是第28个年头。普通投资者认为发生概率仅有三分之一的事件，拜伦会将其定义为“意外”；一旦他表示“可能”，则意味着他认为事件的发生概率大于50%。

    早在1986年，拜伦担任摩根斯坦利（Morgan Stanley）首席美国投资战略家时就开始每年发布这项报告。2009年9月，拜伦加入黑石，担任高级顾问，为公司及其客户分析经济、政治、市场与社会趋势。

    以下为拜伦的2013年十大预言：

    1. 伊朗宣布拥有足够制造一枚核导弹的浓缩铀，国际原子能机构（International Atomic Energy Agency）也将确认这一说法。制裁、货币贬值、经济状况疲软和外交手段均无法阻止伊朗的核武进程。国际社会必须将伊朗视为核威胁来对待，而不是无休止地谈论如何避免伊朗拥有核能力。美国和以色列将政策从预防转变为遏制。

    2. 由于利润空间遭到挤压，收入增长有限，导致2013年标准普尔500（Standard & Poor's 500）的收益下降到100美元以下，失望情绪在投资者当中蔓延。标普500指数跌破1,300点。公司对于在全球经济增长缓慢、竞争愈加激烈的情况下依然实行限制性定价权抱怨不已。

    3. 经过2012年的增长，金融类股票的形势急转直下。商业银行与投资银行业面临的激烈竞争以及低迷的交易量都带来了巨大的利润压力。裁员仍在继续，补偿金蚕食着银行业。监管力度加大，法律诉讼仍是银行业面临的巨大负担。

    4.通过一次出人意料的逆转，民主党发起一项强有力的项目，将使美国在2020年不再依赖中东的石油进口。西德克萨斯轻质油的价格下跌到每桶70美元。当局建议放松对在人口密度较低地区通过水力压裂开采石油与天然气的限制，并允许在美国联邦土地上进行更多钻探活动。美国当局认为，2013年主要的就业机会将由能源生产、基础设施和住房业创造。

    5.通过一次出人意料的逆转，共和党付诸巨大努力成为移民政策的主导者。共和党提出一项法案，为非法移民获得美国国籍创造了条件。法案提到凡在美国居住十年的非法移民，只要没有犯罪记录，接受过高中教育或曾在美军服役，并通过英语能力考试，则可申请成为美国公民。共和党的目标是至2016年赢得拉丁裔美国人的选票，他们认为拉丁裔群体具有天然的保守主义倾向，民主党正是依靠拉丁裔选票才在2012年大选中获胜。

    6. 中国新领导班子似乎下定决心实行改革，以根除腐败，使经济保持7%以上的增长速度，并开始制定更利民的医疗保险与退休计划。2013年，上海证交所（Shanghai Composite）终于起死回生，A股涨幅超过20%。之前一年，中国股市持续下跌，而其他发展中国家股市，尤其是印度市场，则节节攀升。

    Byron Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of Surprises for 2013. This is the 28th year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a "surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is "probable", having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

    Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone (BX) in September 2009 as a Senior Advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.

    Byron's Ten Surprises for 2013 are as follows:

    1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.

    2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor's 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.

    3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.

    4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.

    5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.

    6. The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the "A" shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.