“金砖先生”继续看好中国股市

    印度和巴西让你担心的问题是什么？

    印度人似乎就认定他们不用做什么，就可以达到8%的经济增长率。和中国不同，印度要改变政策非常困难。印度亟需批准更多外国投资来提高生产率。

    巴西的一个基本问题是本币估值过高。第二个问题是除了大宗商品行业，巴西其他行业不是很有竞争力。除非他们能做些什么来振兴非大宗商品行业，否则，巴西经济可能继续不景气。不过，我要补充一点，今年他们都已经采取了措施来降低货币估值。这些举措有相当的风险，但让人印象深刻。

    人们将墨西哥、印尼、韩国和土耳其的英文首字母缩写“MIST”（迷雾四国）也归为你的创造。迷雾四国的表现会好于金砖四国吗？

    我看不出来。但我知道这是现在很流行的一个概念。

    那么，你根本不信这个据说是你创造的流行概念？

    这个字母缩写的出现是因为我们有一次在写到发展中经济体时提到了金砖四国和其他这四个国家。有些韩国记者抓住了这一点，就写我又创造了一个新词，这时我才第一次听到这个词。这四个国家都很有意思，可能也会表现不错。有些可能在短时期内可能经济增速还会快于中国，但我认为这种可能性很小。韩国的人口结构还不如中国。墨西哥、印尼和土耳其的人口结构确实很好，但它们有很多其他问题。

    你说中国正在从一个出口型经济转向一个消费型经济。哪些国家将从中受益？

    我认为，墨西哥将是真正的大赢家，因为中国在低附加值行业上的竞争力将不如过去15年。过去，墨西哥曾屡屡处于下风。意大利的奢侈品制造商们将继续受益，德国公司也是如此。投资这些公司正当时，因为中国消费市场是这个十年最大的投资主题。很可能美国也会受益。中国市场已占到苹果公司（Apple）销售额的20%。如果它能继续维持一家超级大公司的地位，原因就是是因为中国。

    What's your fear about India and Brazil?

    The Indians just sort of assume they can grow at 8% without doing anything. Contrary to China, they find it really difficult to change policies. India badly needs to allow more foreign investment to boost productivity.

    Brazil's basic problem has been that their currency became far too overvalued. That added to their second problem, that the noncommodity sector of their economy is not very competitive. Unless they can do something to boost their noncommodity industries, Brazil might continue to struggle. But I add that they've done things to reduce the strength of their currency this year that are risky but quite impressive.

    People have been attributing another acronym -- MIST, for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey -- to you. Will the MISTs do better than the BRICs?

    I can't see why, though I know it's a very fashionable story at the moment.

    So it's a fashionable story attributed to you that you don't even buy into?

    The acronym came about because we wrote about growing economies, which mentioned the BRICs and the four others. Some South Korean journalist got hold of that and wrote that I had created a new acronym, which was the first I'd heard about it. All those countries are interesting places and will probably do well. And some may have brief periods where they grow more strongly than China, but I think it's very unlikely. South Korea has worse demographics than China. Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey do have very positive demographics, but they have lots of issues as well.

    You say China is changing from an export economy to a consumer economy. Which countries will benefit?

    I think Mexico is a really big winner, because China can't compete in the low-value-added industries that it did the past 15 years. And Mexico suffered badly from that. Italian luxury-goods makers continue to be winners, as do German companies. It's the right play because the Chinese consumer is the biggest investing story of this decade. And it's quite possible the U.S. will benefit. Apple (APPL) already has 20% of its sales in China. If it's going to continue to be a powerhouse, it will be because of China.