法国成欧元危机隐形不定时炸弹

    由于投资者对法国的主权债务抱有信心，法国素来又是德国在欧元区“北部坚定的同盟军，你可能会认为法国将一直作为欧元的共同守护人。确实，目前10年期法国国债的利率仅为2%，只比德国国债高一点点。浏览一下收支数据，法国没有像葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙那样被戏称为”欧猪五国“（PIIGS），法国没有承受很多压力。迄今为止，法国的债务和预算赤字趋势没有像欧猪五国那么严重，甚至还赶不上英国和美国。

    法国对于创立欧元、以及推动欧元初期的成功功不可没，这也强化了法国经济的光环。1989年，时任法国总统弗朗西斯·密特朗说服德国总理赫尔穆特·科尔支持这一货币联盟以换取法国对德国统一的支持。实际上，法国、德国还有荷兰的做法是将法国法郎和德国马克纳入一个货币联盟，将货币间汇率保持在一个狭窄区间内，成为1999年欧元诞生的前奏。在21世纪第一个十年中期经济繁荣增长之时，法国基本上与德国并驾齐驱，成为欧元区（由17个经济欣欣向荣的成员国组成）两大增长引擎。

    细细看来，法国正在陷入不亚于经济衰退的困境之中。这个欧元区第二大经济体（2012年GDP为2万亿欧元）面临的竞争力下降问题，比欧元区其他任何成员国都要严峻。 简言之，法国产品（汽车、钢铁、服装和电子产品）的成本远远高于亚洲和欧洲邻国的竞争性产品；这些邻国不仅包括德国，甚至还包括西班牙和意大利。因此，法国出口呈现急剧加速下降，制造业及配套服务业也显著下滑。

    法国产业事实上已经濒临崩溃，但分析师和专家们却视而不见。他们认为，欧元区已经躲过一劫，进入了一个更加稳定持续的全新经济阶段。事实上，如今对欧元存亡构成最大威胁的不是希腊和西班牙，而是法国。法国是欧元所面临问题的缩影：那些生产成本高昂并持续增长的国家无法通过调整本币汇率来保持产品在国际市场上的竞争力。

    Given investors' confidence in its sovereign debt, and its image as Germany's principal partner in the sturdy, sensible "northern" eurozone, you'd think that France endures as the co-guardian of the endangered single currency. Indeed, the rate on France's ten-year government bonds stands at just 2%, just a few ticks above Germany's. From a quick look at the headline numbers, France doesn't appear nearly as stressed as the derisively titled "PIIGS," Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. So far, the trajectory of its debts and deficits isn't as distressing as the figures for the PIIGs, or even the U.K. and the U.S.

    France's vaunted role in the creation and initial success of the euro enhances its aura of solidity. It was President Francois Mitterrand who in 1989 persuaded Chancellor Helmut Kohl to back monetary union in exchange for France's support for German reunification. In fact, France and Germany, along with the Netherlands, dramatized their commitment by effectively uniting the franc and deutschemark in a currency union that held their exchange rates in a narrow band, and heralded the euro's birth in 1999. In the boom years of the mid-2000s, France virtually matched Germany as the twin growth engine of the thriving, 17-nation eurozone.

    A deeper look shows that France is mired in no less than an economic crisis. The eurozone's second-largest economy (2012 GDP: 2 trillion euros) is suffering more than any other member from a shocking deterioration in competitiveness. Put simply, France's products -- its cars, steel, clothing, electronics -- cost far too much to produce compared with competing goods both from Asia and its European neighbors, including not just Germany but even Spain and Italy. That's causing a sharp and accelerating fall in its exports, and a significant decline in manufacturing and the services that support it.

    The virtual implosion of French industry is overlooked by analysts and pundits who claim that the eurozone had dodged disaster and entered a new, durable period of stability. In fact, it's France -- not Greece or Spain -- that now poses the greatest threat to the euro's survival. France epitomizes the real problem with the single currency: The inability of nations with high and rising production costs to adjust their currencies so that their products remain competitive in world markets.