法国成欧元危机隐形不定时炸弹

    迄今为止，有关欧元区的担忧一直都围绕着飞涨的债务和预算赤字。但这些财政问题的源头主要是竞争力丧失。如果产品制造成本过高，经济停滞不前、甚至倒退，即便小幅提高政府支出也会压垮那些预算赤字庞大、负债过多的国家。在这样零增长或负增长的情景下，情形通常都是一样的：私营经济萎缩，政府支出持续攀升。

    这种情形已经在意大利、西班牙和其他陷入困境的欧元区成员国上演。不同之处是，那些国家正在采取结构性改革重塑自身竞争力。法国没有采取任何类似的举措。因此，不断扩大的竞争力差距将很快引发一场财政危机。令人吃惊的是，这么庞大的一个经济体，这么广受尊重，可能也会这么快倒下来。

    全世界的投资者以及对欧元区持乐观态度者都应当意识到法国可能带来的威胁。危机正在逼近。

    最能体现法国经济走下坡路的是它对外贸易数据的迅速恶化。1999年，法国出口额占全世界出口额的约7%。如今，该比例仅略高于3%，而且还在迅速下降。冲击出口的高成本因素同时也在吸引德国、中国甚至南欧国家的产品不断涌入法国。这些进口产品正在从定价更高的法国制造产品手中夺取越来越多的市场份额。2005年，法国的贸易顺差为其GDP的0.5%。如今，法国的贸易逆差已经达到了GDP的2.7%，意味着法国进口已远超出口，贸易从经济增长引擎转变为了一大拖累因素。最能体现竞争力差距的是德国对华出口和法国对华出口数据的巨大差异。每年德国出口至中国的汽车、机床和其他产品达到700亿美元，是法国的7倍。

    甚至连法国旅游业也因为价格高昂而缺乏竞争力。越来越多游客来自亚洲、巴西、印度和俄罗斯，法国在吸引这些注重性价比的游客们方面显得力不从心。21世纪第一个十年中期，外国旅游者在巴黎香榭丽大街和蔚蓝海岸等地的支出比法国人海外度假支出高出了150亿欧元。如今，这个差额已缩水1/3至100亿欧元左右。

    造成法国成本劣势的主要原因是劳动力成本，劳动力成本在全球所有企业开支中约占70%。在法国，这个问题源于高工资、社保负担和僵化的法律规定，包括每周35小时工作制，法国雇员的工作小时数是发达国家中最少的一个。法国8,800万工薪族中有7,600万人享有“无固定期限合同“这样的长期雇用协议，使得裁员代价非常高，而且耗费时间。

    在法国，每支出100欧元就有42欧元用于社保。相比之下，德国为34欧元，英国26欧元，美国20欧元。

    当然，限制诸多的法律和敌对的工会不是什么新鲜事物。导致情形一发不可收拾的是近年来劳动力成本的快速上涨，而竞争对手却降低了劳动力在总成本中的比重。

    So far, the worries over the euro have centered on dangerously rising debt and deficits. But those fiscal problems are primarily the result of a loss of competitiveness. When products cost too much to make, the economy stalls or actually declines, so that even modest increases in government spending swamp nations with big budget shortfalls and excessive borrowings. In this no-or-negative growth scenario, the picture is usually the same: The private economy shrinks while government keeps expanding.

    That's already happened in Italy, Spain and other troubled eurozone members. The difference is that those nations are adopting structural reforms to restore their competitiveness. France is doing nothing of the kind. Hence, its yawning competitiveness gap will soon create a fiscal crisis. It's absolutely astonishing that an economy so large, and so widely respected, can be unraveling so quickly.

    The world's investors and the euro zone optimists should awaken to the danger posed by France. La crise est arivée.

    France's decline is best illustrated by the rapid deterioration in its foreign trade. In 1999, France sold around 7% of the world's exports. Today, the figure is just over 3%, and falling fast. The same high costs that are pounding exports draw an ever rising flow of goods from Germany, China and even southern Europe. Those imports are taking an increasing share of sales from pricier French-made products. In 2005, France's trade balance was a positive 0.5% of GDP. Today, it stands at minus 2.7% of national income, meaning imports now far exceed exports, turning trade from a growth-generator into a major drag. An excellent illustration of the competitiveness gap is the chasm between German and French exports to China. Germany sends $70 billion in cars, machine tools and other products to China each year, seven times the figure for France.

    Even tourism is suffering because of the France's high prices. France is now struggling clientele from a surging, bargain-seeking tranche of the market, travelers from Asia, Brazil, India and Russia. In the mid-2000s, foreigners spent 15 billion euros more visiting the Champs Elysees and the Riviera than the French paid to vacation abroad. That surplus has since fallen by one-third, to around 10 billion euros.

    The main reason for France's cost disadvantage is the burden of labor, a factor that typically accounts for around 70% of all corporate expenses worldwide. In France, the problem comprises a both high wage and social costs, and rigid laws, including a 35-hour work week that allows French employees the lowest number of working hours in the developed world. An astounding 76 million out of 88 million wage earners enjoy "contrats a durée indéterminées," permanent contracts that make layoffs extremely expensive and time-consuming.

    In France, 42 euros for every 100 euros in total expenses go to social charges, versus 34 euros in Germany, 26 in the UK, and 20 in the US.

    Obviously, the restrictive laws and hostile unions are nothing new. What's causing the crippling malaise is the recent rapid rise in labor costs when rivals are lowering or moderating the weight of weight of their workforces.