法国成欧元危机隐形不定时炸弹

    2005年以来，法国单位劳动力成本（比如，生产一辆汽车或一根钢梁的费用）增长了17%，相比之下德国只增长了10%，西班牙增长5.8%，爱尔兰增长2%。如今，法国工人的每小时工资为35.3欧元，意大利只有25.8欧元，英国和西班牙则是22欧元。

    结果是法国制造业以及从咨询到物流的配套服务业都大幅下滑。企业利润在GDP中的比例已剧降至6.5%，仅及欧元区平均值的60%。这是因为法国出口商的市场份额在萎缩，那些存活下来的企业必须降低利润率，给出更有竞争力的价格。因此，它们也缺乏资金来建新工厂和投资新技术。法国的出口企业数量如今仅及德国或意大利（或许让人吃惊）的一半。德国工业得益于其19,000台机器人，这一数量是法国的5倍。过去4年，法国的研发支出也削减了50%。

    值得注意的是奥朗德政府正在打算通过加大企业负担来增加政府收入。去年9月，法国宣布了新法律以限制付息抵税和亏损结转抵税，事实上加大了企业税负。这些措施将导致本已微薄的企业利润进一步缩水，阻碍未来的投资。

    假如法国专长生产利润丰厚的高精尖产品，这样的成本差距可能还不会那么有破坏性。诚然，法国在时装、奢侈品和制药领域仍然具有相当的实力。这些行业是法国经济的亮点，但同时，这个国家也非常依赖汽车、纺织、钢铁、电信设备和其他中低利润率产品，这些产品在国际市场上对价格相当敏感。“法国在机床或高端电脑设备等高精尖产品方面一直都不具备强劲的实力，“巴黎Flash Economics的让-克里斯托弗·卡菲说。“即便是在高端市场，很多份额也被德国抢走了。”

    比方说，德国专长制造高品质汽车，奥迪（Audi）、梅斯德斯（Mercedes）和宝马（BMW）这些品牌就算价格涨一点，人们也愿意掏钱购买。相比之下，法国制造的雷诺（Renault）和标致（Peugeot）价格定位较低，如果不保持低价，潜在客户就可能被福特（Ford）或菲亚特（Fiat）抢走，因此只能满足于一点微薄、甚至近乎不存在的利润。

    法国也没有追随邻国降低劳动力成本的步伐，对潜在危机做出应对。21世纪头一个十年中期，德国迈出了一大步：批准第四阶段就业改革方案——哈茨四号（Hartz IV），降低企业社保负担。最近，西班牙将领取全额养老金的退休年龄从65岁上调到了67岁，并允许在公司层面进行工资谈判，独立于全国性的强制上调薪酬体系。意大利也将在未来六年内把女性退休年龄从60岁逐步提高到66岁。

    但2012年5月份当选的法国总统弗朗西斯·奥朗德则采取了温和的举措。法国政府承诺小幅减轻企业社保负担，但这项改革要到2014年才会启动，而且只会持续两年。

    竞争力问题直接导致法国经济未来可能缺乏增长，进而引发财政危机。值得注意的是，上世纪90年代中期，法国的失业率、预算赤字和债务/GDP比率都低于德国，而经济增速却几乎一致。如今，所有这些数据都倒了个。

    Since 2005, France's unit labor costs -- the expense of producing a single car or steel beam, for example -- has jumped 17% compared with 10% for Germany, 5.8% for Spain, and 2% for Ireland. Today, French workers earn an average of 35.3 euros per hour, compared with 25.8 in Italy, 22 in the UK and Spain.

    The result is a steep fall in French manufacturing and the services that support it, everything from consulting to logistics. Corporate profits have plunged to 6.5% of GDP, about 60% of the euro zone average. That's because French exporters are losing market share, and the ones that survive must lower margins to charge competitive prices. As a result, they lack the funds to invest in new plants and technologies. France now has half as many exporting companies as Germany and, amazingly, Italy. German industry benefits from 19,000 robots, five times the number in France. As for R&D spending, it's dropped 50% in the past four years.

    Remarkably, the Hollande government is raising revenue by heightening the burden on business. In September, France announced new laws that limit deductions for interest payments and loss carry-forwards, effectively heaping higher taxes on business. Those measures will shrink already meager profits, and crimp future investment.

    The cost-gap wouldn't be so damaging if France specialized in sophisticated, high-margin products. Indeed, the nation remains strong in fashion, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals. But though those offerings symbolize France's economic élan, the nation is heavily dependent on autos, textile, steel, telecom equipment and other mid-to-low margin products that are extremely price sensitive on world markets. "France has never been strong in high-end, sophisticated products like machine tools or high-end computer equipment," says Jean-Christophe Caffet of Flash Economics in Paris. "And even in the high-end, it's lost a lot of market share to Germany."

    Germany, for example, specializes in fancy cars, Audis, Mercedes and BMWs that folks are willing to keep buying if prices rise a bit. By contrast, France makes cheaper Renaults and Peugeots that risk losing sales to Ford or Fiat unless manufacturers hold down prices -- or settle for puny or non-existent profits.

    Nor is France reacting to the looming crisis by following its neighbors' campaign to lower labor costs. Germany made big strides in the mid-2000s with its Hartz IV reforms that lowered the social charges on businesses. Spain recently raised the retirement age for full pensions from 65 to 67 and allows wage negotiations at the company level, a departure from the centralized system of imposing mandatory nationwide increases in pay. Italy is gradually raising the retirement age for women from 60 to 66 over the next six years.

    But Francois Hollande, elected president in May, is taking far more tepid steps. The government is pledging to modestly lower social charges on businesses, but the reforms don't start until 2014, and last just two years.

    It's the prospect of a future without growth, a direct legacy of the competitiveness problem, that could unleash a fiscal crisis. It's remarkable that in the mid-1990s, France had a lower unemployment rate than Germany, smaller deficits, less debt to GDP, and approximately the same growth rate. All of those measures have now totally reversed.