法国成欧元危机隐形不定时炸弹

    2012年，法国经济增速仅0.2%；过去3年的平均实际增长率为1.2%，不到德国2.7%的一半。对于2013年，法国ODDO Securities的分析颇有说服力，它预计2013年法国经济可能出现负增长。目前，法国失业率处于14年高点10.9%，显著高于德国的6.7%，而且还在继续上升。债务/GDP比率正在接近危险区域90%，2013年则可能会达到97%。

    这倒不是因为法国毫无节制地提高政府开支。问题是一个原本支出水平就高、缺乏经济增长的国家现在已经没有余地去继续增加支出和负债。另外，不寻常的一点是，从2004年至2012年，法国私营部门经通胀调整后基本没有增长。八年来，法国GDP累计增长仅7.3%，全部都来自于政府支出。正是私营经济支撑这些政府支出，私营经济将继续萎缩，把法国一步步拖入债务泥潭。

    如今，法国政府支出占GDP比例为57%，比德国高出12个百分点，并且还在继续增长。可资比较的是，德国的私营部门表现出增长的活力，政府支出在GDP中的占比呈现下降。情况与它的长期伙伴法国截然相反。

    将法国经济增长低迷归咎于“紧缩”根本说不通。紧缩的通常定义是大幅削减预算赤字，主要通过降低政府支出形式。但剔除通胀因素后，法国的实际支出呈现增长趋势。2011年和2012年，法国预算赤字一直保持在较高的5%左右，今年也可能维持同样的数字。

    不知道这场投资者和奥朗德政府基本上还没有意识到的危机何时会激发恐慌。法国将劳动力成本降低20%-30%以恢复经济增长的概率基本上是零。改革时机只能出现在经济扩张、民众对未来有良好预期之时，而不是像法国现在这样被萧条所笼罩的时候。

    法国正向经济巴士底狱进发。它在这条路上走得越久，它百般努力打造的欧元区走向瓦解的可能性就越大。

    译者：早稻米

    In 2012, the French economy expanded at just 0.2%, and its real growth rate for the past three years averaged 1.2%, less than half Germany's 2.7% performance. For 2013, France's ODDO Securities makes a persuasive case that the economy will actually shrink. The unemployment rate stands at a 14-year high of 10.9% and rising, compared 6.7% for Germany. Debt to GDP is nearing the danger zone of 90%, and could hit 97% in 2013.

    It's not that France has been raising government spending at an outrageous rate. The issue is that a nation with already high spending levels and no growth has run out of room to keep lifting spending, and debt, at all. It's extraordinary that from 2004 to 2012, the private sector in France showed no growth whatsoever, adjusted for inflation. The entire rise in GDP, a mere 7.3% over eight years, came from government spending. It's the private economy that supports that spending, and it will keep dwindling, driving France further and further into debt.

    Government spending now accounts for 57% of GDP and increasing, 12 points higher than Germany. By the way, Germany's private sector is growing briskly as public expenditures drop as a share of national income. The opposite dynamic is plaguing its long-time partner.

    It's totally implausible to blame "austerity" for France's poor growth. Austerity is generally defined as large reductions in budget deficits, mainly driven by falling government spending. But France's spending has increased in real terms, and its deficits have been remained at a substantial 5% or so of GDP in 2011 and 2012, with the same figure likely for this year.

    It's unclear when the crisis that's going mostly unacknowledged by investors and the Hollande government will erupt into a panic. The chance that France will lower labor costs by the 20% to 30% needed to restore growth is practically zero. Reforms can only happen when the economy is expanding and citizens feel good about the future, the antithesis of the gloom now enveloping France.

    France is heading towards an economic Bastille. The longer it stays on that path, the more possible that the eurozone regime it labored so hard to create will crumble.