全球最大对冲基金2012失手之谜

    如果债市下跌，达里奥投资的股票理论上应该能平衡风险。真正的问题在于，债券投资的安全性已经今非昔比。贝莱德（Blackrock）基础债券投资组合的首席投资官瑞克•莱德称，去年30年期债券的波动率事实上比股票还要高。

    因此，2012年达里奥真正的押注（即债券风险低于股票）完全押错了宝，而且看上去，当前处于历史低点的利率可能还会再延续一段时间。

    这个分析很简单化。事实上，达里奥只是用了不到一半的管理资产进行风险平价配置。2012年桥水有一只基金的表现就优于Pure Alpha，那就是All Weather基金。而且，ZeroHedge提供的数字显示，Pure Alpha也进行了其他几十种押注，涉及各类投资。从中各位也可以看到这种变迁。近来其投资组合中变动最大的头寸是欧美债券。股票投资波动相对较小。

    大多数人认为，达里奥的成功过去是建立在他对宏观经济精准判断的基础上，总能比全球经济领先一步。虽然Pure Alpha不像All Weather那样高度多元化，但其它出色的回报率也是得益于达里奥同样的投资理论：传统上投资者承担了过多的股市风险，需要分散投资。

    这一直是达里奥成功的真正关键。在利率下降时代，这套理论非常管用。而且，可能继续如此。但在泡沫行将破裂之际，可能突然大热、被奉为福音的也正是这类说法，比如提高投资组合的杠杆比率购买债券是安全的选择。（财富中文网）

    译者：早稻米

    If bonds do drop, Dalio's bets on stocks in theory should balance that out. The real problem is bonds are no longer the safe bet they once were. Rick Rieder, who is chief investment office of fundamental fixed income portfolios at Blackrock (BLK), says 30-year bonds were actually more volatile than stocks last year.

    So Dalio's real bet -- that bonds are less risky than stocks -- is what was really off in 2012, and with interest rates at all-time lows that looks likely to continue for some time.

    This is a simplistic analysis. Dalio only really practices risk parity with a little less than half of the money he manages. It's called the All Weather fund, which actually did better than Pure Alpha in 2012. Pure Alpha, on the other hand, as you can see from the numbers from ZeroHedge makes dozens of bets on all types of investments. But here too you can see the shift. Among the biggest movers in its portfolio recently are investments in US and European bonds. Its stock market investments, by comparison, have been less volatile.

    Most people believe Dalio's success was built on his great macro calls, a swashbuckler able to stay one step ahead of the global economy. But while Pure Alpha is not the fully diversified All Weather, its outsized returns have been driven by the same general Dalio investment thesis: That investors have traditionally taken on too much stock market risk, and need to spread their bets.

    That's been the true key to Dalio's success. And during a time of falling interest rates, it has worked great. And it may continue to. But it's also just the type of talk - that something like levering up your portfolio is safe as long as you use that leverage to buy bonds - that always pops up, and gets taken as gospel, just as bubbles are about to burst.