英国的欧盟小算盘

    欧元区迅速回归强势增长和全面的财政稳定将会是很困难的事情，这已成事实。在这种情况下，如果实行三步走的计划，不再考虑继续留在欧元区，英国在2017年所面临的选择将会很简单：要么留在欧盟，对参与的条件仅做小幅改动，并藉此在等级更为分明的欧盟中处于实际上较为边缘的地位；要么退出欧盟，谋求达成某种联合协议，以减少对本国经济增长和投资的冲击。

    就其本身而言，欧盟将在过渡时期采取措施，防止自己再次被倾向于区域整合倒退举措的国家绑架。确实，不管英国做出什么样的决定，对体制发展不同水平的看法将发生根本性的变化。

    从现在开始，英国希望通过接触欧盟以实现其成为这一小范围欧元区成员的强烈愿望，即成为欧盟内核成员。因为在核心外围所花的精力将难以为英国提供回旋的空间。为此，英国这十几年来费尽心机。然而，它看起来显然更像是一个臆想的、通往欧元区的跳板，而且需要持续不断地推动力才能向前走。

    不管人们怎么看待这件事，卡梅伦首相的举动实质上已经增强了以下这种可能性，即2017年之后，波兰将成为左右欧洲区域整合规模和范围的前三大经济实体，而英国则与此无缘。我们只是希望他能拿出备用方案，以应付此事可能对英国人民生活质量所带来的冲击。

    穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安是太平洋投资管理公司首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。奥巴马总统最近任命他掌管美国全球发展理事会。（财富值中文网）

    Already, it is hard to see the eurozone returning rapidly to robust growth and comprehensive financial stability. As such, and with full membership of the eurozone off the table, Britain will have a simple choice to make by 2017 if it adheres to the three-step plan: Stay in with only minor modifications to the terms of engagement, thus accepting de facto lower status in an even more stratified EU; or exit and seek some type of association agreement that limits the hit to growth and investment.

    For its part, the EU will take steps in the interim period to reduce the probability that it will again become a hostage to national preferences for backward movement on regional integration. Indeed, regardless of what Britain decides, there will be a fundamental change in how the different levels of institutional are viewed.

    From now on, expect access to the EU to come with much stronger expectations of full membership among the smaller eurozone, its inner core. The time spent in the outer core will no longer provide the wiggle room that the UK has exploited so skillfully for more than a decade now. Instead, it will be seen more explicitly (and contractually) as a presumed stepping stone to the eurozone, and one requiring consistent forward motion.

    Whichever way you look at this, Prime Minister Cameron has materially increased the probability that, beyond 2017, Poland rather than the UK will be among the three largest economies defining the scale and scope of European regional integration. Let's hope that he also has a Plan B that would limit the potential downside to Britain's standard of living.

    Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO. President Obama recently appointed El-Erian to head the U.S. global development council.