黄金接近熊市

    黄金本轮牛市恐怕马上要到头了。

    直到去年，黄金价格已连续11年走高。投资者购买黄金通常有两个原因：要么是为了防范不确定的经济时期，要么是为了抵御通胀。金融危机过后，黄金价格连着几年飙升，而且随着欧洲处理债务问题持续上涨。金价在2011年9月登顶，交易价格超过每盎司1,900美元。

    随着上面提到的这些忧惧大大减弱，黄金价格现在已经开始稳步下降。本周二上午，黄金在纽约的交易价格为每盎司1,592.85美元，降幅差点就达到20％，而降幅20％一般被视为熊市的标志。

    本轮金价下调正值全球经济回暖初现端倪之际。尤其需要注意的是美国房价随着房市复苏的稳步上升。尽管批评人士担心美联储买入数千亿美元的承诺可能导致房价过快攀升，但通胀其实一直都在美联储的控制之下。

    这些因素导致投资者将资金抽离黄金等避险投资，转而买入风险较高的资产——股票。自今年年初以来，美股价格飙升，创下新高。上周，道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）创下了自2007年以来的最高记录。

    正如英国《金融时报》（Financial Times）指出，投资者正以前所未有的速度抛售黄金交易所交易基金。约有106吨黄金在2月被抛出——是记录在案的最高单月抛售额。继亿万富翁乔治•索罗斯等大投资者在去年底抛售持有的黄金交易所交易基金之后，黄金交易所交易基金的持有量1月份以来已经下降了140吨。

    分析师预测，这可能标志着黄金本轮牛市已经进入尾声。

    高盛（Goldman Sachs）上月发布了一份名为《黄金周期可能拐点将至》的报告。报告预测黄金价格将一路下跌至2014年。分析师将3个月、半年以及1年的（目标）金价从1,825美元、1,805美元以及1,800美元分别下调至1615美元、1,600美元以及1,550美元。此外，他们将2013年与2014年的预期金价从每盎司1,810美元和每盎司1,750美元分别下调至每盎司1,600美元以及每盎司1,450美元。

    达米安•库尔瓦林以及杰弗里•柯里撰写的这份报告称：“事实上，我们怀疑我们对金价进一步下跌的预测是否正确，黄金价格的下跌可能比我们预期的要更快、更狠。”

    It may not be much longer before the yellow metal says bye-bye to its bull run.

    Up until last year, gold prices traded higher for 11 consecutive years. Investors typically buy it for two reasons: Either to guard against uncertain economic times or to hedge against inflation. The precious metal soared in the years following the financial crisis and continued rising as Europe dealt with debt problems. Gold peaked in September 2011, trading at more than $1,900 a troy ounce.

    As much of these fears have subsided, prices have steadily fallen. On Tuesday morning in New York, gold traded at $1,592.85 an ounce, only a few percentage points away from a 20% decline, a benchmark that's generally defined as a bear market.

    This decline comes amid signs of a global recovery. In particular, U.S. home prices have steadily risen as the housing market heals. And although critics worry that the Federal Reserve's promise to buy up hundreds of billions of dollars would cause prices to rise too fast, the central bank has kept inflation under control.

    These factors have led investors to take their money out of gold and other safe-haven investments and park them in riskier assets -- namely, stocks, which have soared to new records since the start of the year. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) pierced through levels last seen in 2007.

    As the Financial Times noted, investors have sold gold exchange-traded funds at a record pace. About 106 tonnes of bullion was dumped in February -- the biggest monthly sell-off on record. Since January, gold ETF holdings have declined 140 tonnes, after big investors such as billionaire George Soros sold off their gold ETF holdings at the end of last year.

    From analysts' forecasts, this could mark the beginning of the end of gold's bull run.

    "The turn in the gold cycle is likely already underway," read the title of a Goldman Sachs report released last month. The report predicted prices for the precious metal would decline well into 2014. Analysts lowered their 3-, 6- and 12- month gold price to a respective $1,615, $1,600 and $1,550 an ounce from $1,825, $1,805 and $1,800. For 2013 and 2014, they lowered expectations respectively to $1,600 an ounce and $1,450 from $1,810 an ounce and $1,750.

    "In fact, we suspect that if indeed our forecast for further declines in gold prices proves correct, the fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than we expect," notes Goldman's report by Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie.