塞浦路斯：最坏的时候还没有到来

    多亏岛上一系列有利的投资法规，加之有4万名俄罗斯人在此定居，塞浦路斯因此吸引了更多俄罗斯人。塞浦路斯与俄罗斯两国之间有一个双重课税条约，对许多投资项目征税税率予以限制，比如利息税仅为5%，而对股息以及特许使用金则免于征税。

    由于该岛与俄罗斯相距不远，再加上它所有具有的欧盟成员国地位、国民友好待人的品质、共有的东正教传统以及宜人的气候，塞浦路斯成为俄罗斯人在国土之外存放资金的首选之地。

    但是，如果塞浦路斯对这些存款征税40%甚至100%的话，所有上述优势就将变得无足轻重。俄罗斯人不会欣然接受塞浦路斯政府的打劫；而且，塞浦路斯能这样攫取资金而不付出代价吗？这一点让人高度怀疑。俄罗斯肯定会采取行动撕毁双重课税条约来保护俄罗斯人，使之不再继续往塞浦路斯多存哪怕一卢布。俄罗斯人会卷走他们存放的一切资本，大批出逃的俄罗斯资金无疑会一夜之间摧毁塞浦路斯银行业。如果俄罗斯人提取资金，那么100亿欧元的救助基金会被形成的存款空洞瞬间吞没；继而导致成千上万的人一夜之间失业，使这个国家陷入难以想象的经济衰退。

    而且远不止此。随着俄罗斯资金的撤离，塞浦路斯的另一主要支柱产业，占塞浦路斯GDP 20%的旅游业也会受到一定冲击。假使你的钱被洗劫一空的话，你不可能还有心思端着迈泰鸡尾酒在沙滩上优哉游哉，也没有心思窝在星散于全岛的某间五星级海滩度假村每晚一掷千金、甚至是万金。很多度假村，尤其是在享有“利马索尔格勒”之称的利马索尔附近的度假村，都是专以富有的俄罗斯旅游者为目标游客而建设的。大多数度假村都有讲俄罗斯语的工作人员；精品店都主打花里胡哨的名牌服饰以吸引俄罗斯新贵。

    根据塞浦路斯政府的调查报告，去年11月，俄罗斯游客人均每天在塞浦路斯花费约115欧元，高于其他任何国籍的游客。这个金额几乎是来自相对富有地区，比如英国等地游客人均日消费金额的两倍，超过来自荷兰和爱尔兰旅游者来此度假时人均日消费金额的两倍。俄罗斯超级富豪不会住酒店，他们在此拥有宽敞、且通常是花哨的海景别墅。然而，他们依然每晚在迪斯科和餐馆招待宾朋，或者在觥筹交错、衣香鬟影的VIP区洽谈业务，挥金如土。

    毫无疑问，塞浦路斯的旅游业也许不会就此衰亡。但鉴于俄罗斯资金的撤出，游客们每天的消费总额很有可能会下滑。尽管与高级度假区相距甚远，发生在塞浦路斯首都尼科西亚街上的暴动仍然足以令来自俄罗斯或者其他地区经验丰富的旅行者们望而却步。

    我们不妨退后一步，从更宏观的角度来看这场危机。当考虑到我们在此讨论的这笔救助基金时，与欧元区危机这最新一章有关的各种戏剧性演变和国际阴谋看起来有点不真实的感觉。塞浦路斯人曾请求约170亿欧元帮助纾困。这笔资金听起来数额巨大，但与意大利高达两万亿欧元的负债总额规模相比只是九牛一毛。塞浦路斯人需要的170亿欧元，实质上能挽救这个岛国的整个经济免于崩溃，又能避免银行业危机的恐慌情绪在整个欧洲蔓延，却仅相当于欧元区12.1万亿欧元GDP总量的0.14%。这个比例低到有点不真实。（德国总理）安吉拉•默克尔每年花在啤酒和椒盐脆饼上的支出恐怕都比这多。

    Russians are drawn to the island thanks to a range of favorable investment laws and the fact that 40,000 Russians call Cyprus home. Cyprus and Russia have a double-taxation treaty that limits taxes on a number of investments like a 5% rate on interest and 0% rate on dividends and royalty payments.

    The island's close proximity to Russia, EU status, friendly people, shared Christian Orthodox traditions and great weather made it one of the best places for Russians to store their cash outside of the country.

    But all of that means nothing if Cyprus taxes those deposits at 40% or even 100%. Theft is something Russians don't take kindly to and it is highly doubtful that Cyprus can get away with this cash grab. Russia will surely move to cancel its double-taxation treaty with Cyprus to protect Russians from parking one more ruble in Cyprus. A mass exodus of Russian money will basically destroy the Cypriot banking industry overnight as it would drain whatever capital they had left. That 10 billion euro bailout would be eaten up in a flash filling the hole left by the Russian withdrawals. Thousands of jobs would be lost overnight, plunging the nation into a recession of unimaginable proportion.

    It gets worse. With Russian money out you can bet that the nation's other main industry, tourism, which makes up 20% of Cypriot GDP, will also take a bit of a hit. Having your money stolen doesn't make you want to relax on the beach with a Mai-Tai or spend hundreds or even thousands of euros per night to stay at one of the five-star beach resorts dotted around the island. Many of those resorts, especially those around Limassol (nickname "Limassolgrad"), were built specifically for the well-off Russian traveler in mind. Most have Russian speaking-staff complete with boutiques featuring flashy designer clothes meant to attract Russia's nouveau riche.

    The average Russian traveler spent around 115 euros per day on holiday in Cyprus last November, more than any other nationality surveyed by the Cypriot government. That is nearly double that of holiday goers from relatively well-off places like the United Kingdom and more than double what tourists from the Netherlands and Ireland dropped on their vacation. The super rich Russians don't stay at hotels; rather, they own large, usually gaudy, beachfront estates. Nevertheless, they still drop thousands of euros per night at discos and restaurants entertaining friends and business contacts in the VIP area complete with bottles and models.

    To be sure, tourism in Cyprus will probably never die. But the amount spent per day will probably fall given the pullout of Russian cash. Riots on the streets in Nicosia, Cyprus' capital, while far from many of the posh resorts, is still close enough to deter even the most seasoned of traveler, Russian or not, from making the voyage.

    Let's take a step back for a moment and try to put some perspective on all this mess. The amount of drama and international intrigue associated with this latest chapter of the Eurozone crisis seems a bit unreal when you consider the amount of money we are talking about here. The Cypriots asked for around 17 billion euros to basically get back on their feet. While that sounds like a lot of money it is really a pittance when compared to the size of, say, Italy's total debt load of around two trillion euros. The 17 billion euros needed by Cyprus to essentially save the island's entire economy from collapse and avoid contagion fears of a banking crisis spreading across Europe was equal to roughly 0.14% of the EU's GDP of 12.1 trillion euros. That's so low it's sort of unreal. Angela Merkle probably spends more on beer and pretzels on an annual basis.