塞浦路斯：最坏的时候还没有到来

    但说真的，我们讨论的这笔钱不算多——然而我们却仍在讨论的原因是什么呢？有人认为，将来欧盟救助方案——比如说，西班牙和意大利预计会获得的救助——可能会援引塞浦路斯救助方案的模式。还有人说，这个救助方案可能会导致俄罗斯与欧盟关系趋于紧张。

    但有一个问题更严重，发人警醒。这个问题是：欧盟和欧洲央行对一个处境最为脆弱的成员国所表现出来的麻木不仁已经到了令人发指的地步。欧元区“三驾马车”竟然要求塞浦路斯凭空自筹58亿欧元资金，真是令人震惊。这笔资金相当于欧盟GDP总量的0.05%，但却相当于塞浦路斯GDP总量的30%。同样令人瞠目的是，欧洲央行负责人马里奥•德拉吉去年夏天曾经言之凿凿说要尽一切力量挽救欧元区，结果却只给塞浦路斯一周的时间来考虑是否接受协议，否则将停止向该国银行提供紧急拨款。换做是在美国，这无异于让美联储（Federal Reserve）主席本•伯南克警告美国政府一周之内必须拿出4.7万亿美元，否则他将关闭印钞厂。

    道德风险方面的诉求可以理解，但如果按照欧元区“三驾马车”的吩咐，摧毁塞浦路斯的金融业，鉴于它可能对塞浦路斯造成的破坏程度，这就不恰当了。我们现在讨论的是，一夜之间抹去该国GDP总量的大约一半，并使得该国债务负担增加100亿欧元（因为“三驾马车”会要回他们注入的资金）至250亿欧元，比这个国家GDP总量的一倍还略高。

    那接下来塞浦路斯如何偿还债务呢？去年该国税收收入19.5亿欧元，同比下降了3%。摧毁占该国GDP总量45%的一个行业；破坏另一个占该国GDP总量20%的行业，那么它的税收将会出现大幅下滑，从而使它的债务占GDP比例陡然上升。法国兴业银行（Society Generale）预测，到2017年塞浦路斯经济将会萎缩20%。这种预测乐观得可笑。所有这些即将失业的塞浦路斯人怎么安置？二战之后占该国出口60%的矿产到现在已经几乎开采殆尽。海底钻探天然气貌似前景可观，但并不是劳动密集型产业。无论如何，所有的工作都将需要依靠有经验的外资跨国公司来做。靠橄榄采摘和捕鱼业是不可能的，对吧？

    “三驾马车”竟然要将塞浦路斯置于这种地步已是匪夷所思；更有甚者，塞浦路斯政府竟会听凭摆布。事实上，退出欧元区，同时依靠自身力量寻求更多具有创意的方式来收拾这个烂摊子，可能更具意义。而那样的话则意味着主权债务违约，但能保全银行业。这个岛国制定的资本管制制度将最终导致“塞浦路斯欧元”的价值远低于欧洲大陆欧元的价值，因此一去不回头、最终与布鲁塞尔分道扬镳可能值得一博。它可以仅仅对欧盟“盟友”出现债务违约，却与俄罗斯、美国、中东甚至中国建立更为密切的关系。鉴于它的经济受损情况已经非常严重，未来将无法支付债务利息，何不就往前跨越几章？与其请求紧急援助以支付前一次的紧急援助，何不现在就实实在在地退出欧盟？

    我们现在才开始认识到塞浦路斯危机的后果，并且这场危机离尘埃落定还遥遥无期。上周末在磋商进行到第11个小时所达成的协议行不通，塞浦路斯民众不会全然不顾地接受它。这种紧急援助模式非但不可取，反倒很有可能为欧盟的最终消亡埋下种子。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    But seriously, this is not a lot of money we are talking about here - so why are we talking about it? Some believe the Cypriot bailout could be the model by which future EU bailouts are done - such as those expected in Spain and Italy. Others say that this could cause major strain in Russia-EU relations.

    While those are important, the big red flag here is the almost sickening degree of callousness the EU and the ECB has shown for one of its most vulnerable members. It is downright appalling that the troika would demand Cyprus come up with 5.8 billion euros out of thin air, while at just .05% of EU GDP is equal to 30% of Cypriot GDP. It is equally appalling that Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, who said he would do everything to save the euro last summer, basically gave Cyprus one week to accept the deal or else he would cut off emergency funding to the nation's banks. That would be like Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke telling the US government to come up with $4.7 trillion from somewhere in a week or else he would shut off the printing press.

    Moral hazard claims here are understood, but irrelevant given the level of the damage that will be inflicted on Cyprus if it goes ahead and does what the troika wants and guts its financial sector. We are talking about wiping out around half of the nation's GDP overnight while adding 10 billion euros (cause the troika wants their money back) pushing the nation's debt load to around 25 billion euros, or a little over 100% of GDP.

    How can Cyprus make their debt payments now? It only brought in 1.95 billion euros in tax receipts last year, 3% less from the year before. You wipe out an industry that contributes 45% to the nation's GDP and hurt another worth 20% you are going to see a major decrease in tax revenue and a subsequent spike in the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio. French bank Society Generale sees the Cypriot economy contracting by 20% by 2017. That seems ridiculously optimistic. What are all the Cypriots thrown out of work going to do? Minerals, which after the second world war made up of 60% of the nation's exports, have pretty much all been mined at this point. Offshore drilling for natural gas seems promising, but it is not labor intensive. In any case, all the work will need to be done by a foreign multi-national with experience. Olive picking and fishing seem out of the question, right?

    It is remarkable that the troika would put Cyprus in this position but it is even more remarkable that Cyprus would go along with it. Indeed it may make more sense to simply bail on the euro and find more creative ways to get through this mess on its own. While that would mean defaulting on its sovereign debt it would do so with some semblance of a banking sector still intact. Capital controls instituted by the island will eventually cause a "Cypriot euro" to be worth far less than a euro from the continent so it may be worth going all the way and saying goodbye to Brussels. It could just default on the debt held by its EU "friends" and forge closer ties with Russia, the US, the Middle East or even China. There is no way that it will be able to service its debts with its economy impaired so why not just skip ahead a few chapters. Instead of asking for a bailout to pay for the first bailout why not just literally bail on the EU now?

    We have just begun to see the fallout from the Cypriot crisis and it is far from over. The deal struck at the eleventh hour over the weekend isn't going to work and the Cypriot people aren't going to just lay down and take it. This is not a good model for a bailout; rather it seems like a great way lay the seeds of the EU's eventual demise.