风险投资不成功怎么办？

    早期风投很像棒球运动：如果你作为击球手每三次就能击中一次，你就有望进名人堂了。回顾我的职业生涯，以及我曾经参与管理的公司和基金的投资记录，所见击中率基本上就是这样。这里的“击中”是指投资回报率达到5倍或更高。当然，很多投资会达到10倍，甚至偶尔还会超过百倍。

    那么，其余2/3呢？创业界很少谈到这部分。有时候，创业者会选择提前退出。他们已经获得了一小部分外部资金，他们将继续掌控这家公司，获得一个他们无法拒绝的出价。这是创业者的成功，不是风投。但无论如何，这对于每个人都是一个好结果。这种情况可能占到总数的10%。因此，至少有50%的结果对于风投或创业者都算不上成功。

    那么，如果不成功，又会怎样？通常有两种情况。

    一是“苦干到底”。这种情形最痛苦。它意味着这块业务不是不能做，但不会给风投带来多少利润，而且由于需要大量的时间和金钱“苦干到底”，创业者也不会赚很多钱。很多情况下，创业者会选择离开，公司不得不招聘外部人士来管理。

    在“苦干到底”的情况下，包袱往往都丢给了风投公司。它们已经投入了很多，必须想办法走出困境。有些创业者会留下来，与风投一起“苦干到底”。对于那些曾和我一起“苦干到底”的创业者们，我怀有深深的敬意。这种情况对他们而言基本没什么好处。他们这么干主要是出于责任。这样的“苦干到底”可能会持续很长时间。我参与的一些企业已经“苦干到底”20多年了，可能还会持续到30多年。

    我听说有些人称这些公司被称为“僵尸公司”或“行尸走肉”。这么说有点不公平，因为一家公司如果不能自己养活自己，绝不可能持续20年或30年。风投不会持续向这样的公司注入资金，也许在最初的5年会，之后就不会了。这些“苦干到底”的公司最终会转变成真正的公司，但由于缺乏高速成长轨迹或战略性地位，也难以成为有吸引力的收购目标。

    第二种情况是“撞墙”。在这种情况下，公司现金用尽，再也不能从投资者那里拿到更多的钱。公司难以为继，两条出路。要么廉价出售或人才收购(acqui-hire)，要么关门歇业。

    廉价出售是首选，近几年很多风投和创业者都为团队找到了好的归宿。由于市场上人才匮乏，廉价出售的安排很多时候都是着眼于标的公司的人才。但如果无法安排廉价出售，公司就不得不关门大吉。如何有序地关门歇业，这事往往还是得风投公司操心。关门歇业前，必须通知员工，同时支付歇业前的薪水。所有税款都必须缴纳。房租、银行贷款等债务也要妥善安排。如果情况特别糟糕，可能还要提交破产申请。

    Early stage venture capital is a lot like baseball: If you get a hit one out of every three times, you are headed to the Hall of Fame. And if I look back over my career, and also over the track records of the firms and funds I have helped manage, that is pretty much the hit rate I have seen. By "hit" I mean an investment that returns 5x or better. But of course, many of these hits return 10x or even 100x every once in a while.

    So what happens with the other two-thirds? Well that is the part of the startup world that we don't talk too much about. Sometimes an entrepreneur will take an early exit. They will have raised a small amount of outside money, will still control the company, and will get an offer they can't refuse and take it. That's a win for the entrepreneur but not for the VC. But it is a happy outcome for everyone anyway. That's maybe 10% of the total outcomes. So at least 50% of the outcomes are not a win for the VC or the entrepreneur.

    So what happens when things don't work out? There are generally two scenarios.

    The first is the "slog it out" scenario. This one is in many ways the most painful. It means that there is a business that can be built, but it won't be one that makes the VCs much money, and because it takes so much time and money to "slog it out," it doesn't make the entrepreneur much money either. And in many cases, the entrepreneur chooses to leave, and the company has to recruit outside management to operate the business.

    In the "slog it out" scenario, the VCs are often left holding the bag. They have a lot invested in the business and have a responsibility to figure out how to get it out. In some cases, the entrepreneur sticks around and slogs it out along with the VCs. I have great admiration for the entrepreneurs I have worked with who have slogged it out. There is very little upside for them in this scenario. Mostly they do it out of a sense of responsibility. These "slog it out" businesses can go on for a long time. I am involved with some that are well into their second decade, and I am afraid that they may be headed into a third decade.

    I have heard these kinds of companies called "zombie companies" and "the living dead." That's a bit unfair, because there is no way a company can operate for two or three decades without being able to sustain itself. VCs do not keep pouring money into these businesses, maybe they do that for the first five years, but not after that. These "slog it out" companies turn into real companies eventually but just not companies that have the growth trajectories or strategic profiles that make them great acquisitions.

    The second scenario is "hit the wall." In this scenario, the company runs out of cash, and there is no more coming from the investors. The company cannot sustain itself and one of two things happens. There is a fire sale or an acqui-hire, or there is a shutdown.

    The fire sale is the preferred outcome, and VCs and entrepreneurs have gotten pretty good at finding homes for the teams in recent years. There is such a vacuum of talent out there that a fire sale can often be arranged just for the talent that a company has assembled. But often the fire sale cannot be arranged, and the company has to be shut down. Again, the responsibility for an orderly shut down often falls onto the VCs to manage. In a shut down, the employees must be notified and paid through the date of the shut down. All required tax payments must be made. Liabilities such as leases and bank borrowings must be managed. In particularly messy situations, a bankruptcy filing is required.