全球经济担忧加剧之际，金价缘何大跌

    在金价跌至两年新低之际，一个悖论也随之出现：金价下跌反映出美国经济方面的好消息，但它也意味着来自世界其他地区的坏消息，而黄金作为避险投资品种正失去往日的光彩。

    经过连续11年的上涨后，黄金价格于去年10月份开始稳步下降。近来金价跌势加剧，上周五跌幅达到5%，正式陷入熊市。周一投资者继续抛售黄金头寸，金价一度跌至每盎司1361.70美元，跌幅超过9%。

    历史上，许多投资者在经济形势严峻时期偏爱投资黄金。在全球金融危机爆发后的几年里，金价持续飙升，之后欧洲出现债务危机，金价继续攀升。

    金价在2011年9月触及峰值，报每盎司逾1900美元，但之后已经累计下跌了24%，受美国经济出现复苏迹象影响。与此同时，美国住房价格稳步攀升。自今年年初以来，美国股市屡创新高，因投资者风险偏好升温。不过，尽管美国经济形势似乎较好，但是中国和欧洲经济的一些迹象令人不安，以至于投资者不那么相信投资黄金可以让他们免受损失。

    上周金价大跌，因市场担心身陷债务危机的塞浦路斯将会大举出售其黄金储备。根据欧盟的救助计划要求，塞浦路斯需要自行筹集一部分资金。这促使投资者担心其他债台高筑的欧元区国家可能也会抛售部分黄金储备，尤其是意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙。

    在周一中国公布弱于预期的第一季度经济增速后，黄金抛盘继续。中国和印度都是世界上首屈一指的黄金消费国。数据显示，今年第一季度中国经济同比增长7.7%，低于政府8%的增速目标，与曾经长达三十年的两位数增速相差甚远。投资者担心手头现金缩水的中国消费者可能会减少黄金消费。更重要的是，如果中国经济增速继续显著放缓，那将影响全球经济并打击原材料出口国。过去十年里，由于中国需求激增，原材料出口国受益匪浅。

    在上周的一份报告中，高盛（Goldman Sachs）将其对黄金的三个月目标价由1615美元每盎司下调至1530美元每盎司，并将12个月目标价由1550美元每盎司下调至1390美元每盎司。此前，法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）在4月2日发布的研究报告中称金价存在“泡沫”。法国兴业银行以及巴克莱银行（Barclays）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）等机构均预测2014年黄金均价将低于今年。

    可以肯定的是，看跌前景也有可能被夸大了。虽然德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）上周将其2013年目标金价下调至1637美元每盎司，该行仍然预计明年黄金均价能达到1810美元每盎司。

    经济形势差的时候，金价往往会走高。但考虑到中国和欧洲的经济形势，目前情况并非如此。金价未来的走势可能会更复杂。皮特森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）资深研究员雅各布•芬克•柯克加德说，投资者也许因为塞浦路斯抛售黄金储备的计划而担心其他欧洲国家也会效仿，但是这不太可能发生。

    柯克加德说：“它们目前都不存在像塞浦路斯那样的严重财政压力。”他还说，不可否认的是，某个国家可能会决定宣布一个长期的、预先安排好的黄金出售计划，时间跨越5到10年，和几个欧盟（European Union）国家在几年前的做法相似，但即使那样似乎也不太可能。若要筹集迫切需要的现金，大多数欧洲国家有其他资产可以出售或私有化。

    最终，金价是否会继续下滑很可能取决于中国以及部分欧洲国家是否能够很好地应付任何新的重大问题。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    As gold plunges to new two-year lows, a paradox has emerged: The decline reflects better news in the U.S. economy, but it also suggests bad news in other parts of the world as bullion loses its luster as a safe-haven investment.

    After rising for 11 consecutive years, the price of gold started falling steadily in October. Its downward spiral has intensified, with prices falling by 5% on Friday, officially entering bear market territory. The sell-off continued Monday, as prices dropped by more than 9% to $1,361.70 an ounce.

    Historically, many investors think of gold as an alternative investment when economic times get tough. The precious metal soared in the years following the financial crisis and continued rising as Europe dealt with its monstrous debt problems.

    Gold peaked in September 2011, trading at more than $1,900 an ounce, but prices have since fallen 24% on signs that the U.S. economy is recovering. Home prices have steadily risen. And since the start of the year, the U.S. stock market has soared to record highs as investors turned to riskier investments. But while the U.S. appears to be doing better, signs in China and Europe look so troubling that investors don't seem very convinced gold will guard them from losses.

    Last week, gold plunged on worries that debt-troubled Cyprus would sell a big chunk of its gold reserves to foot the bill for portions of a bailout. This has spurred fears that other European countries struggling with high debts, particularly Italy, Spain, and Portugal, might also sell some gold reserves.

    And on Monday, the sell-off continued after China -- the world's biggest buyer of gold besides India -- reported slower-than-expected growth. During the start of the year, the Chinese economy grew 7.7%, lower than the government's targeted 8% growth rate and by far a big drop from the double-digit annual growth it had seen over three decades. Investors worried that Chinese consumers, faced with less cash, may buy less gold. What's more, if China's economy continues to significantly slow, it will affect economies across the world and hurt exporters of raw materials that have come to demand on surging Chinese demand over the past decade.

    In a report last week, Goldman Sachs (GS) cut its three-month price target for an ounce of gold to $1,530 from $1,615 and lowered its 12-month forecast to $1,390 from $1,550. This followed Societe Generale's April 2 note calling gold a "bubble." The bank, along with Barclays (BCS) and Credit Suisse (CS), are among those forecasting lower average prices in 2014 than this year.

    To be sure, the bearish outlook could be overblown. While Deutsche Bank (DB) last week lowered its 2013 gold forecast to $1,637, it still expects prices to average $1,810 next year.

    Gold usually rises when economies aren't doing so well, but it's clear that hasn't been the case when factoring in China and Europe. And the direction of prices could get more complicated.Cyprus's plans to sell off gold reserves might have spawned investor worries that other European nations might follow, but that's unlikely to happen, says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    "None of them are in the acute fiscal stress that Cyprus is at the moment, and it would send a signal of desperation to go out and suddenly sell gold," Kirkegaard says. Admittedly, he adds, a country might decide to announce a long-term program spanning five to 10 years of prefixed gold sales, similar to what several European Union countries did years ago, but even that seems unlikely. Most European countries will have other things they can sell or privatize to come up with desperately needed cash.

    In the end, whether gold will continue its downward slide could very well hinge on how well China and parts of Europe might withstand any more major problems.