巴菲特股东大会见闻：苹果重新受到追捧

    Gardner Russo & Gardner公司的汤姆•罗素称，他认为人们多多少少夸大了提高美国天然气产量和降低物价的新技术在提振经济方面的作用。格林沃德表示认同。在一个服务驱动型的经济体中，能源价格不再那么重要。“美国制造业重生的希望与让美国倒退至农业经济一样渺茫，”他说。“因为这在成本结构上行不通。”

    对盖伯里来说，他最担心的是美联储的债券收购计划，这个计划会压低利率。他说：“美联储能够在不威胁到市场和经济的情况下退出货币刺激措施吗？我认为不可能。”

    包括冬青基金（Wintergreen Fund）经理戴维•温特斯在内的这批投资者似乎都担心债券市场的潜在泡沫。库珀曼称，未来三年，债券投资者的损失可能高达20%。他说，高收益率债券尤其缺乏吸引力。格林沃德说，美联储是一个需求巨大的投资者，但这些需求不是由基本面推动的。一旦形势好转，美联储就会改变想法。“问题是你是否想要与美联储并肩投资，”格林沃德说。“我的回答肯定是：不要。”

    虽然宴会上的投资者都是巴菲特长期以来的忠实追随者，但是这次伯克希尔公司在宴会上并没有获得投资者的青睐。库珀曼表示不会持有伯克希尔的股票。他说，今年8月就满83岁的巴菲特很难找到能够像他这样成功执掌伯克希尔公司的继任者。伯克希尔公司业务规模庞大，拥有的资产从跑鞋制造公司到铁路不一而足。罗素和温特斯说，伯克希尔的股票去年上涨了33%，如今看上去不再具有良好的投资价值。

    盖伯里是宴会上唯一一位仍然看好伯克希尔股票的投资者。他说，他认为未来五年，这家公司股价每年可上涨10%。但他表示，再接下去，他也很担心接班人问题。

    罗素和温特斯都认为最好的投资标的在欧洲市场。他们说，投资欧洲综合企业集团是追新兴市场增长概念的一种好策略。更重要的是，由于投资者担心欧洲形势，现在欧洲上市公司的估值要比美国跨国公司估值便宜。罗素看好雀巢（Nestle）。库珀曼的首选股包括美国国际集团（AIG）、高通公司（Qualcomm）和卡路驰（Crocs）。他还说，Facebook的移动业务收入增长比市场预期强劲得多。

    价值投资者对苹果公司表现出比过去更浓厚的兴趣。过去的六个月中，苹果股价下跌了23%。莱格曼森（Legg Mason）著名价值投资者比尔•米勒在希尔顿酒店拥挤的大堂酒吧里说，目前股市上最好的投资标的就是苹果。他最近一直都在为他的基金买进股票。米勒还说，相比迈克尔•戴尔和银湖资本（Silver Lake Partners）的收购报价对戴尔公司（Dell）的估值，苹果公司目前估值要便宜一半，而后者目前还在增长。

    对冲基金经理惠特尼•蒂尔森在酒店会议室举办了一个鸡尾酒会。他说他购买苹果股票有一阵子了，他认为苹果股价将会升至550美元。蒂尔森和米勒都很赞成苹果最近宣布的发债及增派股息的计划。

    “我认为这对了一半，”蒂尔森说。“这已经足够了，再加上一些创新，足以推动股价在当下上涨。但是如果要让我成为他们的长期股东的话，他们还需要拿出更好的资本计划和更多的创新。”（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Tom Russo of Gardner Russo & Gardner said he thought people were overstating how much new technologies that were boosting natural gas production in the U.S. and driving down prices would help the economy. Greenwald agreed. Energy prices don't matter as much in a service-driven economy. "A manufacturing rebirth in the U.S. is just as possible as us going back to agriculture based economy," says Greenwald. "The cost structure doesn't work."

    Gabelli, for his part, was most worried about the Fed's bond buying program, which has held down interest rates: "Will the Fed be able to exit without undo risk to the economy and market? I don't think so."

    All of the investors on the panel, which also included David Winters of the Wintergreen Fund, seemed concerned about a potential bubble in the bond market. Cooperman said investors could lose as much as 20% in the bond market in the next three years. He said high yield bonds were particularly unattractive. Greenwald said the Fed is an investor with lots of demand that's not driven by the fundamentals, one that will change its mind just as things are getting better. "The question is whether you want to invest along side that," says Greenwald. "My answer is definitely not."

    Even Berkshire didn't garner a lot of enthusiasm among the investors at the dinner, all of which have been long-time Buffett fans. Cooperman, who said he wouldn't own the stock, said Buffett, who is turning 83 in August, will have a hard time finding someone else who can run such a large stable of businesses. Berkshire owns everything from railroads to a company that makes running shoes. Russo and Winters say Berkshires shares, which are up 33% in the past year, no longer look like a good value.

    Gabelli was the only investor at the dinner who was still bullish on Berkshire's shares. He said he thought they could rise 10% a year for the next five years. After that, he said he too was nervous about the succession issue.

    Russo and Winters both thought the best investments were in Europe. They said large European conglomerates were a way to play the growth in emerging markets. What's more, because of the fears about Europe they are trading at a discount to U.S. multi-nationals. Russo likes Nestle (NSRGF). Cooperman's top picks included AIG (AIG), Qualcom (QCOM), and Crocs (CROX). He said Facebook's (FB) moblie revenues are much stronger than people think.

    One company getting more interest from value investors than in the past is Apple (AAPL). The company's shares are down 23% in the past six months. Famed value investor Bill Miller of Legg Mason, who was hanging out in the crowded lobby bar of the Hilton, said Apple was the best investment in the market right now. He said he has recently been buying shares for his fund. Miller says Apple's shares trade at half the valuation of the proposed Dell deal, and it is still growing.

    Hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, who was holding a cocktail reception in a conference room at the hotel, says he has been buying Apple shares for a while. He thinks the stock can go to $550. Both Tilson and Miller like the recently announced deal to borrow money and pay out more dividends to shareholders.

    "I think it is half right," Tilson said. "It's enough, along with a little innovation, to make the stock go up for now. But they need a better capital plan and more innovation for me to be a long-term shareholder."