高盛CEO对欧洲判断失误

    雅典大学（University of Athens）雅尼斯•瓦鲁法克斯说，从基本面来看，看好欧洲的观点是完全站不住脚的。“这都只是烟幕，”瓦鲁法克斯说，“欧元区正走在瓦解的道路上。”他认为有关欧洲的前景正在大幅好转的幻觉建立在三个因素上。

    首先，所有的投资者都垂涎高收益率。这种对高收益率的追逐使得目前收益率处于4%左右的意大利或西班牙主权债券比整体收益率往往高出很多的一般债市要有吸引力得多。“垃圾级公司债如今大受追捧，而欧洲到处是垃圾级政府债，”瓦鲁法克斯说。投资者不愿长期持有这些主权债，但仍觉得把这些高票面收益率的债券握上几个月再卖掉不会有危险。

    第二个因素是允许希腊留在欧元区的意外决定。去年9月，德国总理安吉拉•默克尔访华寻求援助，为欧盟的一个银行业救助基金筹金。该基金旨在对行将倒闭的银行进行资本重组。中国政府同意出手救助，购买债券——条件是，据瓦鲁法克斯所说，将希腊留在欧元区。默克尔力挺希腊留在欧元区内，而围绕欧元区濒临瓦解的担忧情绪也随之消退。

    第三，欧洲央行（European Central Bank）行长马里奥•德拉吉承诺动用一切必要手段拯救欧元。德拉吉有效遏制了做空意大利或西班牙债券的交易。若短线投机者狙击这两国的债券，或是投资者出现恐慌情绪，德拉吉坚决表示要祭出新制定的直接货币交易计划（Outright Monetary Transactions plan，简称OMT），以不限量地收购主权债——进行将收益率推低。投机者应声撤退，西班牙和意大利国债承受的压力也随之减小。事实上，OMT并未动用，但它的潜在威力给当时动荡的主权债市场打了一剂定心针。

    这三个因素“冰封了金融界的危机”，瓦鲁法克斯说。但这些因素没能阻止从巴黎到马德里的工厂和店铺相继关张的危机。瓦鲁法克斯警告称：“随着经济形势的大陆板块漂移，发生危机动荡的可能性会越来越大。”

    使欧元瓦解成为可能（若不是必然）的因素是，整个南欧面临的不断加剧的信贷危机。意大利、西班牙和希腊的银行存款正流向德国，而且随着越来越多的公司破产，相关银行的资本也正在不断消失。因此，即使中小企业能筹措到资金，贷款成本也极高。“在德国，企业借贷资金利率为1.5%，而在南欧却高达7%，”瓦鲁法克斯说，况且企业获得资金极难。

    北欧充足的信贷和南欧匮乏的流动性形成了鲜明的对比。随着信贷的构造板块反向移动，欧元离崩溃越来越近。

    要预知经济灾难的触发因素和发生时间是不可能的，如同地震学家无法预测何时会发生地震。它可能会随着意大利或西班牙弱势政府的倒台而来临，或是随着另一波像上次希腊所遭受的银行挤兑潮而来临。

    让人吃惊的是，许多像布兰克梵这样的聪明人，在如此灾难性的数据面前仍选择看好欧元。别被表面的宁静所迷惑，欧元区有大麻烦。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    The euro-optimism is totally unjustified by the fundamentals, according to Yanis Varoufakis, an economist at the University of Athens. "It's all smoke and mirrors," says Varoufakis. "The eurozone is continuing on a path to disintegration." He credits three special factors with creating the illusion that that the euro's prospects are radically improving.

    First, investors everywhere covet high-yields. That makes the sovereign debt of Italy or Spain, yielding in the 4% range, far more attractive than in a typical market where overall rates are far higher. "Corporate junk bonds are a roaring trade, and Europe is full of government junk bonds," says Varoufakis. Investors don't want to hold those bonds for long, but still feel it's safe to grab the fat coupons for a few months, and then sell.

    The second dimension is the surprising decision allowing Greece to remain in the euro. Last September, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Bejing on a mission to raise money for an EU fund designed to recapitalize failing banks. The Chinese government agreed to buy bailout bonds -- with, according to Varoufakis, the proviso that Greece remain in the eurozone. Merkel strongly argued for keeping Greece in the fold, and fears that the eurozone was near collapse receded.

    Third, Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank, pledged to do everything necessary to save the euro. Draghi effectively promised to decimate traders betting against Italian or Spanish debt. The instant speculators attacked those bonds, or investors turned fearful, Draghi vowed to deploy the newly-created Outright Monetary Transactions plan (OMT) to purchase unlimited volumes of sovereign debt -- and push to hold yields back down. The speculators retreated, and so did the pressure on Spanish and Italian bonds. The OMT hasn't been activated, but its potential power created stability in the then-volatile sovereign bond markets.

    Those three factors "put ice on the crisis on the monetary sector," says Varoufakis. But they do nothing to stem the crisis that's closing factories and stores from Paris to Madrid. "The continental plates are shifting, creating an even greater possibility of an earthquake," he warns.

    What makes a euro collapse probable, if not inevitable, is the deepening credit crunch across southern Europe. Banks in Italy, Spain and Greece are losing deposits to Germany, and their capital is vanishing as more and more corporate customers become insolvent. Hence, small and medium-sized businesses are finding it extremely expensive to borrow, if they can find funding at all. "In Germany, companies are borrowing at 1.5%," says Varoufakis. "In southern Europe, it's costing them 7%." And that's if they can get financing.

    The ample credit in northern Europe stands in drastic contrast to the scarce liquidity in the south. As the tectonic plates of credit move in opposite directions, the euro moves closer and closer to fracture.

    It's impossible to predict what will unleash that economic cataclysm, or when it will happen -- any more than seismologists can forecast when an earthquake will occur. It could come with the fall of weak governments in Italy or Spain, or another run-on-the-bank scenario like the ones that have plagued Greece.

    What's amazing is that Blankfein and so many other smart people remain euro-fans when the data is so disastrous. Don't be deluded by the calm. The euro is in big trouble.