投资者质疑西班牙经济数据造假

    西班牙政府是不是从它的银行那里学来了这一招，开始编造数据，让市场以为西班牙正处在复苏进程中？一些华尔街人士已经开始公开质疑西班牙政府乐观经济数据的真实性。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）首席投资官迈克尔•切巴莱斯特在最近的一份研究报告中提出，市场不打折扣地接受西班牙GDP数据是否明智？他指出了基于西班牙GDP数据的一系列不寻常信号——这些信号暗示，马德里的GDP数据可能不可靠。当年只有极少数银行投资官明智地拒绝将客户资金投入旁氏骗局（Ponzi）主谋伯纳德•麦道夫所操作的基金，切巴莱斯特就是其中之一。

    切巴莱斯特不是唯一的一个持怀疑态度的华尔街人士。主权债务交易员告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune），他们开始将经济合作与发展组织（OECD）等其他机构的数据与西班牙的官方经济数据做仔细的比较分析。OECD在上周三就西班牙经济状况发布了一份相当悲观的报告，预测西班牙2013年的失业率还会继续上升，并在明年达到28%的峰值，而且西班牙今年的GDP将下降1.7%，降幅是去年的4倍。

    主权债务投资者希望政府数据是真实的。与跟投资者耍花招的国家相比，经济数据透明稳固的国家虽然利率低，但能吸引更多的资本。班基亚银行股票配售交易失利使投资者怀疑西班牙政府是否对经济数据做了手脚。如果情况属实，这对欧盟以及它想解决主权债务危机的愿望来说可不是个好兆头。一旦投资者不再信任欧盟某个成员国政府，他们可能会对所有欧盟成员国政府持怀疑态度。这样一来，政府很难从市场借到资金，这对欧元来说将是一场灾难。

    西班牙政府有两个选择，它可以站出来并进行艰难的改革，驯服经济衰退这头野兽；也可以跟市场耍花招，得到一些缓冲的时间。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Has the Spanish government taken a page out of the banks' playbook and started fudging their numbers to try and fool the markets into believing that Spain is on the road to recovery? Some on Wall Street have started to openly question the validity of Madrid's rosy economic indicators. Michael Cembalest, the chief investment officer of J.P. Morgan (JPM), posited in a recent note as to whether or not it was wise for the markets to accept Spanish GDP data at face value. Cembalest, who was one of the only bank investment officers who refused to put his clients' money in funds run by Ponzi master Bernard Madoff, noted a number of strange economic indicators based on Spanish GDP numbers -- indicators that seem to show that the GDP numbers coming out of Madrid aren't to be trusted.

    Cembalest isn't the only one on Wall Street with doubts. Traders who deal in sovereign debt have told Fortune that they are beginning to take a closer look at Spanish economic data from other sources, such as the OECD, which came out with a pretty grim report on the state of the Spanish economy on Wednesday. It projects the unemployment rate in Spain will continue rising in 2013, peaking next year at 28%, and that Spanish GDP will contract 1.7% this year, four times as much as it did last year.

    Sovereign debt investors count on governments to report the truth. Those countries with transparent and solid economic statistics attract more capital and pay lower interest rates than those that play games with investors. Bankia's terrible share sale has investors wondering if the Spanish government is playing fast and loose with their economic data. If true, this doesn't bode well for the EU and its hopes of putting the sovereign debt crisis to bed. If investors no longer trust what one EU government says, they may decide to stop listening to all of them. That could spell disaster for the euro as governments again find it difficult to borrow from the markets.

    The Spanish government can either step up and make the tough changes needed to tame the recessionary beast, or they can play games with the markets and buy some time.