市场波动性可能进一步加剧

    正是这两个因素造成了市场波动加大，个别细分市场的流动性失调。此外，我们还发现中间商和一些大投资者的风险承受能力正在下降。

    它或许只是市场的一种临时现象。毕竟，日经指数在过去七个月反弹了57%，最近的下跌又能产生什么特殊的影响？而且，美国十年期国债基本保持了去年的幅度，所以国债当前的水平有什么奇怪的？

    临时现象确实是一种可能，但它是可能性最高的解释吗？对此，我表示怀疑。相反，市场可能正在发出更深层次变化的信号。

    我们希望最近的市场变化是代表了我们期待已久的两个转变：从辅助式增长向真正的由私营行业引领的增长转变；从以政府购买实现的金融稳定向结构稳健的稳定转变。

    如果这两种转变得以实现，它将意味着风险市场未来将不再依赖央行的高度试验性政策。相反，日益改善的经济与金融基本面将稳定风险市场，进而稳定当前人为的价格，同时推动价格进一步上涨。

    可问题是，目前的数据无法为这种假设提供充分的支持。

    美国经济正在继续恢复，但经济逃逸速度依然令人难以捉摸。欧洲继续处于衰退之中，增长引擎没有显示出任何改观的迹象。日本刚刚宣布促增长的结构改革。中国增长速度放缓。全球环境这么不稳定，因此，其他新兴大国（如巴西）也在努力管理各自国家的经济。

    我担心，最近的变化并不代表积极的转变，而是代表着投资者对于央行能力和效率的信任正逐渐受到侵蚀。如果这种现象最先出现在日本，并不意外，因为日本面临一系列艰难的初始条件，而且政策的可信度正处于历史最低水平。

    如果我的担心变成现实，只能期望在未来几个月内，央行在努力恢复话语权的时候，能够更加积极。日本央行和欧洲央行将继续推出非常规政策，而许多人预测，美联储在即将召开的政策会议上不会对QE3政策实行减速。

    这些额外的措施是否能够带动风险资本的新一轮强势反弹，我们仍需拭目以待。但有一点非常明确，如果没有稳定的增速回升，这些政策将带来更大的市场波动，甚至威胁央行在更长时期内的可信度。（财富中文网）

    本文作者默罕默德•埃尔-埃里安为美国太平洋投资管理公司CEO兼联合首席投资官。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Together, these two factors have contributed to higher market volatility and more patchy liquidity in certain market segments. We are also seeing a reduction in risk tolerance among intermediaries and some large investors.

    All this may be nothing more than a market blip. After all, what is particularly special after the recent drops in the Nikkei given that this index has returned 57% in the last seven months? And what is so peculiar about the current level of the 10-year Treasury given that it is still broadly consistent with the range of the last year?

    A blip is certainly a possibility, but I doubt it is the most probable interpretation. Rather, markets may be signaling a deeper shift.

    The hope is that recent market behavior is indicative of two eagerly-anticipated handoffs: from assisted-growth to genuine private-sector led growth; and from purchased financial stability to structurally-sound stability.

    These two shifts, if and when they materialize, would mean that risk markets no longer depend on the highly experimental policies of central banks. Instead, they would be solidly anchored by improving economic and financial fundamentals – which would validate currently-artificial prices and allow them to go higher.

    The problem is that recent data do not sufficiently support this hypothesis as yet.

    The U.S. economy continues to heal, but economic escape velocity remains elusive. Europe is in recession and shows few signs of revamping its growth engines. Japan is still to announce growth-enhancing structural reforms. China has slowed. Some other large emerging countries (e.g., Brazil) are struggling to manage well their economies in the context of such a fluid global environment.

    I worry that, rather than signal positive handoffs, recent changes are indicative of a gradual erosion in the trust that investors have placed in the power and effectiveness of central banks. It would be natural for this phenomenon to start in Japan as the country faces a difficult set of initial conditions and the lowest historical level of policy credibility.

    Should this indeed be the case, look for central banks to be even more aggressive in the next few months as they try to regain control of the narrative. The Bank of Japan and the European Central bank would go further down the road of unconventional policies, and the Fed would not taper QE3 in its upcoming policy meeting as some expect.

    It remains to be seen whether these additional steps would be sufficient to launch yet another robust rally in risk assets. But what is clear is that, absent a solid pickup in growth, they will fuel greater market volatility and threaten even more the longer-term credibility of central banks.

    Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.