欧洲已经放弃了吗？

    和类似于暴发户的外围国家相比，核心欧洲国家面临着截然不同的经济问题，因此可以理解为什么有些国家要谋求另外一种解决方案。但核心国家仍然需要采取紧缩措施，只是紧缩力度不必达到希腊等国所需的水平。核心国家的主要难点是历史遗留问题，也就是养老金和退休福利，它们在税制和就业方面也缺乏效率。但除非这些国家对支出加以控制，否则就永远无法找到解决这些长期问题的可行方案。

    法国尤其需要全面调整经济，但法国政府拒绝就此采取任何行动。2012年法国的预算赤字占GDP的4.8%，远高于3%的上限。但本周欧盟并未向法国开出罚单，也没有迫使法国政府改变行为方式，反而给了法国两年的宽限期。按目前情况推算，法国的赤字将再次超标，预计2013和2014年的预算赤字/GDP比例分别为3.9%和4.2%。

    欧盟斥责了法国现任总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德，原因是他取消了前任总统尼古拉•萨科齐对养老金法律的调整。萨科齐在任时将领取养老金的年龄从60岁提高到62岁。而奥朗德将这项规定还原后，预计到2020年法国将出现约200亿欧元（1,600亿元人民币）的养老金缺口。奥朗德虽然表示他的政府将在今年晚些时候公布养老金改革计划，但他提出的方案是否足以消除法国经济体系中的这个不确定因素仍然令人感到怀疑。

    本周因预算赤字超标而遭到欧盟斥责的不仅是法国，但在重新稳固本国经济基础方面，法国似乎是唯一没能拿出可靠行动方案的国家。奥朗德说紧缩不起作用，试图借此为自己的不作为开脱。但不幸的是，只在心头期盼增长同样无效。如果愿意，法国能很轻松地让自己的财政保持稳健状态，但法国政府选择不这样做。法国仍然是欧盟范围内社会福利最好、失业保障水平最高的国家之一，本周，欧盟也强调了这一点。法国如果想和周边国家保持一致，可谓不费吹灰之力，而且这样的福利水平仍远高于美国。提高养老金领取年龄，同时改革过时的就业法律将大大增强法国的竞争力。通过这些措施来促进增长，同时削减预算赤字的可能性要远高于取消养老金改革或对最富裕的国民按75%的税率征税。

    欧盟也许无力贯彻它所制定的法规，但市场不会永远容忍这样的嚣张行为。法国以及其他违反预算赤字规定的欧洲核心国家都在玩火。如果政府铁了心想破产，一条道走到黑，投资者有什么理由继续把自己的资金放在他们手里？

    不能因为目前融资成本低，就以为情况会一直如此——市场变化多端，而且我们已经看到，利率会在一夜之间急剧上升。希腊和爱尔兰出现这种情况时带来了很大的麻烦，而如果这种情况发生在意大利和法国，那将导致一场巨大的灾难。根本没有哪种援助资金或印钞机能够维持意大利和法国等经济体的长时间运转。但如果市场看到欧洲核心国家正在采取具体措施来纠正自身在预算方面的失误，它将给重新建立信任带来很大帮助，进而有助于避免另一场危机。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    The core European nations have far different economic problems than that of their nouveau riche neighbors on the periphery so it is understandable why some are jockeying for a "different" solution. But austerity is still needed in core nations, just not to the extent as was needed in, say, Greece. The core's main problems are legacy issues, namely that of pension and retirement benefits, and inefficiencies dealing with taxation and employment. But unless they get their spending under control, they will never be able to create workable solutions to those long-term issues.

    France, in particular, is in need of a total economic makeover, but its leaders refuse to do anything about it. France had a budget deficit of 4.8% in 2012, well above the 3% threshold. But instead of fining or forcing Paris to change its course, Brussels this week gave it a two-year grace period. As things currently stand, France will bust through that 3% threshold again, posting budget deficits of 3.9% in 2013 and 4.2% in 2014.

    Brussels has chastised François Hollande, France's President, for reversing changes to the pension laws instituted by former President Nicholas Sarkozy, who raised the pension age from 60 to 62. As a result, France is expected to have a pension deficit of around 20 billion euros by 2020. While Hollande says his government will reveal pension reforms later this year, it is doubtful that he will propose anything that will go far enough to address this dangerous overhang in the system.

    France was just one of the nations taken to task by Brussels for violating the budget deficit rules this week, but it seems to be the only one that lacks a credible plan of action to put the country back on sound economic footing. Hollande has tried to excuse his inaction by saying austerity doesn't work. Unfortunately, praying for growth doesn't work, either. France can easily maintain fiscal prudence if it wanted to, but it is choosing not to. It still has one of the most generous social welfare systems and unemployment schemes in the EU, something that Brussels highlighted this week. Bringing the country in line with its neighbors, which by U.S. standards are already super-generous, is a no-brainer. Raising the pension age and reforming archaic employment laws would go far to increase French competitiveness, which has a much better chance of boosting growth and lowering budget deficits than by reversing pension reforms or taxing your richest citizens at 75%.

    Brussels may be too weak to enforce its own rules, but the markets aren't going to stand for such arrogance indefinitely. The governments of France and other core European nations who are violating budgetary rules are playing with fire. Why would investors continue to park their money with governments that are on a one-way trip to insolvency?

    Just because funding costs are low now doesn't mean it will stay that way forever -- the market is fickle, and as we have seen, rates can explode overnight. While such a scenario was deeply troubling when it played out in Greece and Ireland, if it were to play out in Italy and France the results would be catastrophic. There simply isn't a bailout fund or a printing press big enough to keep the likes of Italy and France going for very long. But if the markets see the core nations taking concrete steps to correct their bad budgetary behavior, that will go a long way to rebuilding trust, helping to avoid yet another "crisis."