欧元可能不是拉脱维亚的福星

    “拉脱维亚是一个仍然没有完全摆脱过去阴影的小国——它曾被俄罗斯人占领，”德州农工大学（Texas A&M University）经济学教授加布里埃尔•马林•桑顿称。“它们更偏向于脱俄入欧。”加入欧元区正是实现这个目的的一条途径。

    拉脱维亚目前的经济可能向好，但问题仍然存在，比如拉脱维亚的银行业问题。全国约有一半的存款属于非居民存款，当中多数来自俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、乌兹别克斯坦和其他一些前苏联国家的储户，因为这些人觉得把钱存在拉脱维亚要比存在自己国内安全些。而且，许多拉脱维亚民众处于失业状态，全国失业率为12.8%，略高于欧元区的平均水平12.2%。

    加入欧元区将对拉脱维亚形成有效制约，令其无法独立调控本国经济。例如，一旦经济状况出现不利的情况，该国将无法自行设定国内利率。瑞德学院（Reed College）的经济学教授金•克劳辛称，这已经成为欧元区边缘国家如今所面临的问题。

    “这就好比让美国征求日本和加拿大能否同意它降息一样，失去了自主决策权，”克劳辛补充说。“因此拉脱维亚应当更加谨慎行事，除非它确信自己不会沦落为下一个希腊或者西班牙。”

    尽管拉脱维亚政府非常迫切地希望加入欧元区，但它对这一点并没有十足的把握，而许多拉脱维亚人也并不看好加入欧盟。民意调查显示，大概只有三成的拉脱维亚人支持加入欧元区。最终到底谁对谁错呢？（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    "Latvia is a small country still haunted by its past -- in this case, the Russian occupation," says Gabriela Marin Thornton, economics professor at Texas A&M University. "They prefer to be strongly tied to the West." And entry into the eurozone is one way of doing that.

    Latvia's economy might be doing OK now, but there are still issues. Latvia's banks are a concern. About half of all deposits represent non-resident deposits, much of them from Russia, Balarus, Uzbekistan, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. This is because they feel parking their money in Latvia is safer than at home. What's more, many in Latvia are jobless. Its unemployment rate is 12.8%, slightly above the eurozone average of 12.2%.

    Joining the eurozone would effectively keep Latvia from independently controlling its economy -- for instance, setting its own interest rates -- if things take a turn for the worse. Such have been among the problems of the eurozone's peripheral countries, says Kim Clausing, economics professor at Reed College.

    "It's as if the U.S. had to ask Japan and Canada if it could lower interest rates," Clausing adds. "Latvia should be more cautious until they're convinced they're not going to be the next Greece or Spain."

    While the government of Latvia doesn't seem very convinced given they seem so eager to join, many of its citizens aren't as excited about the euro -- polls show only about one-third of Latvians favor adopting the currency. In the end, who will be right?