斯洛文尼亚才是欧元区下一张倒下的多米诺

    要想得到经济学家情况良好的判定，斯洛文尼亚还有一堆问题需要解决。可惜的是，其中某些问题异常棘手，要独自应对似乎不大可能。斯洛文尼亚需要越过的最大障碍之一，即其他东欧邻国早在上世纪90年代所处理过的问题，也就是向自由市场经济的过渡问题。

    虽然斯洛文尼亚与其他邻国几乎在同时摆脱了共产主义，但该国经济急速发展，从而使得它有力地跳过了自社会主义国家向资本主义国家迈进时所必须经历的许多痛苦步骤。比如说，国家仍然对许多生产资料实行控制，控制力度几乎涉及国内经济的一半。国有企业任人唯亲、管理不善，致使经济运行低效。而且腐败猖獗。又如，安永公司（Ernst and Young）近期开展的一项研究发现，94%的斯洛文尼亚人认为行贿属于正常商业惯例。逃税漏税似乎也是这个国家面临的重大问题。事实上，斯洛文尼亚总理雅奈兹•扬沙（上周锒铛入狱）早在年初就被迫下台，原因是他被人发现在报税问题上弄虚作假。

    斯洛文尼亚的经济危机已经归类为“银行业”危机，同西班牙和爱尔兰的遭遇一样。但是，西班牙和爱尔兰的危机根源集中于向私营部门提供的不良房产贷款，而斯洛文尼亚银行业危机的根源却集中于腐败以及有组织的盗窃活动。事实证明，斯洛文尼亚的银行的确在给人们借钱，但毫无疑问全是在给政府官员的“亲朋好友”借钱，以方便他们持有国家控股公司的股权。此外，银行还为人们进行管理层收购提供贷款，当然这些人还是政府官员的这帮亲朋好友，他们已经持有国家控股公司股权。这些银行同样直接向斯洛文尼亚的企业出借大量资金，用以企业扩大规模，或者只是让企业苟延残喘。如果效率低下的工厂没法付工资怎么办？向银行伸手借吧。

    这些贷款每一笔都是有后果的。欧盟发布的报告称，斯洛文尼亚（非金融）公司部门的平均债务股本比约为200%，是欧盟范围类遥遥领先的最高水平。分析师们称，约有50%的尚未偿还的银行贷款的借方为斯洛文尼亚企业，其中30%为不良贷款。斯洛文尼亚上周公布，银行贷款余额中，约有20%为不良贷款。也就是说，国内每五笔银行贷款中就有两笔属于不良贷款。大致可以肯定的是，这个数据还是保守估计。

    通过出售政府债券从投资者手中借取资金来填补银行资产负债表中的漏洞，这是斯洛文尼亚政府当下正在设想的法子。为使得这项计划成功落实，斯洛文尼亚政府必须要借到足够多的资金来完成下面三件工作：1）对银行进行资本重组；2）弥补预算赤字；以及3）偿付其原先发行的债券（其中大量债券在未来几个月内很快到期）。

    斯洛文尼亚政府这项举措成效如何呢？四月份，政府拟发债筹集1亿欧元资金，不过仅仅售出价值约为5千万欧元的债券。因为投资者对此毫无兴趣。接着到五月份，穆迪（Moody's）将斯洛文尼亚信贷评级下调至非投资级别（即垃圾级债券）。但是两天后，斯洛文尼亚奇迹般地声称，已向积极申购的投资者们卖出价值35亿欧元的债券。主要买家是谁呢？答案是斯洛文尼亚的银行。因此，从根本上讲，向政府借出资金的正是斯洛文尼亚的国家控股银行，然后政府又拿着这些资金来填补自身资产负债表中的漏洞。真是这样吗？是的，没错。

    Slovenia has a lot of issues it needs to resolve before economists can give it a clean bill of health. Unfortunately, some of them are so monumental that it seems impossible for the country to resolve on its own. Among the biggest hurdles Slovenia needs to jump over is a problem that its other Eastern European neighbors dealt with in the 1990s -- transition to a free-market economy.

    While Slovenia broke free of communism at pretty much the same time as the rest of its neighbors, its economy boomed to such a degree that it was able to skip many of the painful steps a country must go through when moving from a socialist to a capitalist state. For example, the state still controls much of the means of production, around 50% of the economy. Cronyism and bad management at the state-run firms have led to an inefficient economy. Corruption is rampant. For example, a recent study conducted by Ernst and Young found that 94% of Slovenes think bribes are a normal business practice. Tax dodging seems to be a big problem in the country, as well. In fact, the country's Prime Minister, Janez Jansa, was forced to step down earlier this year after it was found that he cheated on his taxes (he was sentenced to jail this week).

    Slovenia's economic crisis has been categorized as a "banking" crisis, a la the likes of Spain and Ireland. But while the roots of the crisis in Spain and Ireland centered on bad property loans to the private sector, the roots of Slovenia's banking crisis centers on corruption and organized theft. It turns out the banks were lending money to people -- no doubt close "friends" of the government -- to buy stakes in state-controlled firms. It also did the reverse, finance management buyouts for people, again close friends of the government, who had stakes in state-controlled firms. The banks also loaned lots of money directly to Slovenian companies to either expand, or in some cases, to simply keep the lights on. Can't make payroll at the inefficient factory? Just borrow it from the bank.

    All this borrowing has its consequences. The EU reports that the Slovenian (non-financial) corporate sector has an average debt-to-equity ratio of around 200% -- far and away the highest level of corporate indebtedness in the EU. Around 50% of the bank's loans outstanding were made to Slovenian companies, 30% of which are non-performing, analysts say. Slovenia reported this week that in total, around 20%, or one out of every five, of the nation's bank loans are non-performing. That number is almost certainly a conservative estimate.

    The government is attempting to fill the hole in the banks' balance sheet by borrowing money from investors through the sale of government bonds. For this scheme to be successful, the government must be able to borrow enough money to: a) recapitalize its banks; b) cover its budget deficit; and c) to cover its old bonds -- much of which are rapidly coming due over the next few months.

    How are they doing with that? Well, in April the government went to the market to raise 100 million euros but only managed to sell around half that much. No one was interested. Then in May, Moody's downgraded Slovenia's credit rating to non-investment grade (i.e. junk). But miraculously, two days later, the country said it sold 3.5 billion euros of debt to eager investors. Who was the main buyer? Slovenian banks. So Slovenia's state-controlled banks essentially loaned money to the government which will be used to fill the hole in their own balance sheet. Really? Yes, really.