斯洛文尼亚才是欧元区下一张倒下的多米诺

    很显然，从多个层面来看这都是不可持续的。不过，欧盟提出的一些方案也好不到哪里去。例如，欧盟正在向斯洛文尼亚施压，要求它尽快售出15家国家控股公司。在这样一个内需正在崩溃的国家里，又有谁肯为那些效率低下、资不抵债的国家控股公司埋单呢？就算会发生交易，也只会按超低价进行，结果只会雪上加霜了。此话怎讲？打个比方，如果一家美资企业收购了政府的国有控股百货店梅卡托尔（Mercator），他们必定会对后者进行大瘦身。这就意味着要裁员，要裁掉一大批人，也就等于将斯洛文尼亚的经济往悬崖边上推。

    要解决斯洛文尼亚的危机没有任何捷径可走。虽然欧盟坚持要求斯洛文尼亚实行国有企业私有化在理，但是这事急不得，要考虑周全，否则就会进一步向腐败和枉法的方向发展。看看1995年前后的俄罗斯吧——独裁者、黑手党、西方国家的剥削等等，不一而足。

    与此同时，斯洛文尼亚还必须控制政府开支。斯洛文尼亚五月份借到的一大笔资金于本周投入使用，为原来发行的9亿欧元国债（于2011年发行）进行再融资。由于债务延期时间紧促，斯洛文尼亚将需要越来越多的现金来避免违约。虽然斯洛文尼亚似乎有足够的现金渡过2013年，但如果经济仍然没有抬头的迹象，那么在2014年清偿债务可能会很艰难。

    可以非常肯定的是，斯洛文尼亚将无法独自渡过危机——国家本身或者国内银行最终会需要紧急援助。虽然表面上形势看似安全，但是可能眨眼功夫就会恶化。虽然斯洛文尼亚不会导致欧盟救助基金破产，不过任何主权违约，无论是小是大，从来都不是好兆头。因此，在这里，对形势的洞察很关键。欧盟越快把控形势，情况就越好。斯洛文尼亚不必等到没有偿债能力的时候才想起寻求帮助，它可以随时开口请求援助。如果斯洛文尼亚等到分奔离析的时候才向欧洲央行求助，可能又会促使投资者担心欧元区崩溃。以往，投资者可以选择带上资金去别处投资，而这次则有所不同，他们可能会把资金永远撤离欧元区。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    This is obviously unsustainable on a multitude of levels. But the solutions put forth by the EU aren't any better. For example the EU is pushing Slovenia to quickly sell off 15 state-controlled companies. Who would want to buy an inefficient and insolvent state-controlled company in a country where domestic demand is collapsing? Any transaction would be at fire sale prices, which will only serve to make a bad situation even worse. How? If, say, a U.S. company bought the nation's state-controlled grocer, Mercator, you can bet they will trim a lot of the government fat out. That means layoffs -- massive layoffs. That would send Slovenia's economy crashing.

    There is no easy way to solve Slovenia's crisis. The EU is right to insist on Slovenia privatizing its state-owned industries, but it needs to be done slowly and thoughtfully, or else the country risks becoming even more corrupt and lawless. Think Russia, circa 1995 -- oligarchs, mafias, Western exploitation, etc.

    At the same time, the government must also get control of its own spending. A good chunk of the money Slovenia borrowed in May was used this week to refinance 900 million euros of old state debt, which it issued back in 2011. With a short debt roll schedule, Slovenia will need more and more cash to stay afloat. While the country appears to have enough cash to make it through 2013, making good in 2014 could be a stretch, especially if the economy remains in the toilet.

    It's probably a good bet that Slovenia won't be able to get through this crisis on its own -- the state or its banks will eventually need a bailout. While it may look as if things are safe on the surface, the situation could go from bad to worse in a blink of an eye. To be sure, Slovenia certainly won't bankrupt the EU rescue fund, but a sovereign default, no matter how small, is never a positive indicator. As such, perception here is key, and the faster the EU can control the situation, the better. Slovenia doesn't have to wait to be insolvent to ask for help -- it can do so at anytime. If Slovenia waits to go to the ECB when it is in ruins, investors will again associate dismal failure with the eurozone. But unlike the past, they may choose to take their money and put it elsewhere -- this time, permanently.