怎么从欧洲赚到钱

超级马里奥？

    欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉在口头影响市场方面已经取得了一定成功。有人也许会说，和美联储主席本•伯南克相比，德拉吉称得上成绩卓著。

    德拉吉已经向欧洲经济体系注入了更多流动资金，这种做法和伯南克类似。但更高的流动性水平并没有转化为大量的新增贷款，在这一点上欧洲和美国也同病相怜。但德拉吉手里还有一张王牌，那就是通过购买债券来执行名为“直接货币交易” （OMT）的大规模量化宽松措施。就在上周，德拉吉还将OMT称为最近一个阶段“最为成功的货币政策”。之前，他曾高调表示，OMT消除了那些“毫无根据的顾虑”，比如欧洲货币联盟“将出现系统性崩溃”，从而让欧元区变得“更稳定、更有韧性”。

    OMT真正引人注目的一点是欧洲央行从未采取过这项措施。实际上，上周德国正就OMT是否违反德国宪法召开听证会。我们预计德国将很快给OMT开绿灯，具体时间可能是在9月份或10月份。2012年9月，德拉吉宣布欧洲央行将推出OMT，光是这句话就提振了欧洲市场——债券收益率下降，大多数欧洲股市上升，从而结束了“恐慌性交易”主导市场的局面。

    欧元区恢复稳定还需要一段时间。中央银行管理层一直没有发挥积极作用，他们沉默寡言，让市场摸不到方向。调整利率效果有限，在欧洲，信用违约互换风险利差下降，但就算个人储蓄的回报率为负值也不足以推动全面复苏。

    在没有什么东西能让所有欧元区国家在政策上达成一致的情况下，德拉吉看来仍然有能力提振市场，手段就是时不时地提到一直没有付诸实践的OMT。

    查理•卓别林在他的电影《大独裁者》（The Great Dictator）中对紧缩理论（等一些概念）进行了嘲讽，尤其是把这个理论和一项伟大事业联系在一起的做法。随着欧洲一体化伟业失去光彩，执政者也越发不欢迎紧缩措施。欧盟委员会（European Commission）主席若泽•曼努埃尔•巴罗佐最近表示，社会和政治领域对紧缩政策的承受能力已经达到极限。言外之意就是，如果我们再进一步，他们就会通过投票把我们赶下台。

    这可能会带来更多温和型的政策——德国财政部长已经放出口风，称可能会在赤字目标方面给予法国和西班牙“一定的灵活性”。

    随着决策者开始预计经济将出现非常缓慢的复苏，海外需求增长将提高出口，同时人们将愿意在政府支持下促进私营经济投资，反对紧缩正在成为一股经济动力。

"Super" Mario?

    Eurozone central banker Mario Draghi has had a certain degree of success "jawboning" the markets. One might say that, compared to his U.S. counterpart Ben Bernanke, his record is astounding.

    Like Bernanke, Draghi has increased the flow of cash into his system. And like the U.S., the increased liquidity has not translated into massive new lending. But Draghi remains with an ace up his sleeve, in the form of a massive quantitative easing program called the "Outright Monetary Transactions" bond-buying program (OMT). Just this week Draghi called the OMT "the most successful monetary policy measure" of recent times. Last week he boasted that the OMT has made the Eurozone "a more stable and resilient place" by removing "unwarranted fears of a systemic collapse" of the monetary union.

    The truly impressive bit about the OMT is that it has never been used. In fact, this week a German is hearing arguments on whether the OMT would violate the German constitution. We expect the approval to be forthcoming -- probably in September or October. But the mere fact of Draghi announcing the OMT in September 2012 was enough to pop European markets -- bond yields retreated, and most European equity markets rose, with the effect that the "fear trade" no longer dominates.

    There remains some way to go before stability returns to the Euro area. Central bankers have not been helpful, saying little or nothing to give a sense of direction to the markets. Rate manipulation is of limited effect -- risk spreads on European credit default swaps are down, but there's not enough oomph in a negative return on consumer savings accounts to drive to a full recovery.

    In the absence of anything resembling policy agreement across the Eurozone, Draghi looks to retain his ability to lift the markets by occasionally referring to the – as yet untried – OMT.

    In The Great Dictator, Charlie Chaplin mocked (among other things) notions of austerity, particularly as it relates to a Greater Cause. With the bloom fading from the Great Cause that was European unity, austerity is becoming less popular with ruling politicians. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso recently said austerity policies have reached their limits of both social and political acceptance. Translation: if we push one more inch, they'll vote us out.

    This may lead to more moderate policies -- the German finance minister is already muttering that France and Spain may be granted "certain flexibility" in meeting deficit targets.

    The move against austerity is becoming a tailwind, as planners start prognosticating a very gradual recovery, export growth caused by growing foreign demand, and a willingness to promote government-bolstered private-sector investment.