怎么从欧洲赚到钱

各地区存在的投资机会

    德国：几乎没有人承认，截至目前欧洲共同市场以及随后出现的欧盟委员会和欧元区已经实现了它们的主要目标，也就是让法国和德国不再有理由发生争端。随着奥朗德成为法国总统，两国的关系已不再像默克尔-萨科齐时期那么紧张。不过，法德两国占欧元区经济产值的一半，它们的共同利益或利益冲突将继续主导着陷入僵局的欧元区政坛。

    我们看好德国，而且认为这对德国来说是个纯粹的有利因素。德国的文化以工作为导向——对于接受德国车间工人的培训，法国年轻人嗤之以鼻，由此产生的结果是，更多的德国人找到了工作，更多的法国人则继续觉得自己更胜一筹。

    目前欧元汇率较低，有利于德国的出口型经济，而且德国是欧元区失业率最低的国家之一。

    德国是个显著的亮点。同时，预期好转的欧元区成员国不多，而德国就是其中之一。它仍将是欧洲的“避风港”。如果今年秋天安格拉•默克尔实现连任，而且德国宪法法院批准OMT，德国经济应该会继续保持上升势头，我们认为这两个前提条件都非常有可能实现。

    投资思路：通过安硕（iShares）基金（EWG）在德国股市做多，通过PowerShares的DB German Bund Futures票据（BUNL）做空德国政府债券。

    法国：我们不看好法国。法国总统奥朗德显然对企业不利。目前他的支持率只有24%。今年第一季度法国经济陷入了衰退，而且只有5%的法国人认为情况会出现好转。他们说：“不至于说5,000万都错了。”对于他们的悲观展望，我们持赞同态度，而且将做空法国市场。人生就是这样。

    投资思路：通过安硕基金（EWQ）在法国市场做空。

    英国：英国是首先采取紧缩措施的国家，我们认为它也将第一个结束紧缩。除了第一季度经济增速确实提高之外，其他有利因素还包括英国央行新任行长马克•卡尼表示愿意提高透明度，卡梅伦政府倾向于为企业提供支持。英国在政治和货币政策方面都远离欧元区，给了它很大的灵活性；进口在英国经济中所占比重很大，大宗商品价格不断下跌将使英国受益。

    最近，英国消费品零售额和工业产值上升，储蓄率同时下降，表明英国经济更为景气——或者我们应该说“约翰•牛气冲天”（ 约翰•牛是英国人的代称）？此外，英国楼市也已已经开始出现上升趋势。

    投资思路：通过安硕基金（EWU）在英国市场做多。

Opportunities by Region

    Germany: It is all too rarely acknowledged that, so far, the Common Market and its descendants -- including the EC and the Eurozone -- have accomplished their primary objective, which was to remove incentives for France and Germany to go to war with each other. With the ascent of French president Hollande the détente is nowhere near so close as during the days of "Merk-ozy." Nonetheless, the two nations combine to represent half the Eurozone's economic output, and their joint -- or conflicting -- interests should continue to dominate the sclerotic policy scene.

    We see this as a net positive for Germany, where we are bullish. German culture is work-oriented -- French youths turn up their noses at the notion of becoming apprentices to German machine-shop operators, with the consequence that more Germans have jobs, while more Frenchmen continue to feel superior.

    Germany's export economy benefits from current weakness in the Euro, and it has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the Euro area.

    Germany is a particularly bright spot, and one of the few countries where expectations are on the rise. It will remain the European "safe haven." If, as we strongly anticipate, Angela Merkel is re-elected this fall and if, as we strongly anticipate, the German court gives the go-ahead for the OMT, Germany should continue very much in the ascendant.

    Investment idea: Long Germany through iShares Germany (EWG) and Short German government bonds through PowerShares DB German Bund Futures (BUNL).

    France: We are bearish on France, where President Hollande appears decidedly anti-business. He currently enjoys a mere 24% approval rating -- the country slid back into recession in the first quarter and only 5% of the French think things will improve. "Fifty million Frenchmen can't be wrong," they say. We agree with their dour outlook and would be short this economy. C'est la vie.

    Investment idea: Short France through iShares France (EWQ)

    Britain: The first economy to impose austerity, we think the UK will be the first to emerge. Bullish elements -- aside from an actual pick-up in growth in the first quarter -- include new central banker Mark Carney, who has expressed his desire for greater transparency, and the pro-business stance of the Cameron government. Its distance from the Eurozone -- both political and monetary -- give it great flexibility, and its import-heavy economy stands to benefit as the prices of commodities continue to deteriorate.

    Recent increases in retail sales figures and industrial production, together with a dip in the savings rate, signal greater bullishness -- or should we say "John Bullishness"? -- in the UK, and the housing market has turned up as well.

    Investment idea: Long the UK through iShares United Kingdom (EWU).