怎么从欧洲赚到钱

    外围国家：被称为“外围国家”不会是件好事。问问葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利就知道了。

    这些国家仍面临诸多风险，欧洲央行则在推出新政策方面受阻。这几个国家的政府已经接受了各种各样的紧缩及援助方案，但实际情况可能表明，它们无法兑现在这些方案中向欧盟委员会做出的承诺。无法解决的大规模失业问题可能引发严重社会骚乱——意大利一半的年轻人都打算到别的国家去寻求更好的生活。主权银行风险尚未消失——爆出牵连首相的重大高层腐败案后，西班牙银行体系依然不透明。

    另一方面，刚刚加入欧盟的斯洛文尼亚看来相对稳定——这个国家似乎有能力控制自身的风险；而且如果需要援助，规模也可能很小，而且高度可控。简而言之，斯洛文尼亚和塞浦路斯的情况不同。

    确实，就连塞浦路斯也不再是原来的那个塞浦路斯。再次出现塞浦路斯式危机的风险很小。塞浦路斯已经确认，加入欧元区后它绝没有打算退出——尽管德国对实力较弱的成员国抱怨连天，而且不断加以责难，但它也无法承受任何一个成员国退出所产生的后果。

    就不利因素而言，这些国家极其缺乏信心，年轻人失业情况异常严重，整体经济处于落后位置。它们的政府不是没有号召力，就是不稳定。不过，金融服务及研究机构Hedgeye对它宏观经济的解读尚未释放出确定的多空信号。我们不排除外围国家的发展趋势从不利走向稳定的可能性。如果德国经济增长够快，而且法国的情况不再恶化，有利局面就可能在这些国家之间扩散开来。

    投资思路：用安硕基金（EWP）在西班牙市场进行操作；用安硕基金（EWI）在意大利市场进行操作。决定在这两个市场做多还是做空为时尚早。我们将继续观察它们的经济状况，以判断其宏观发展趋势。

    The periphery: It can't be nice being called "the Periphery." Just ask Portugal, Spain and Italy.

    Broad risks remain in these countries, one hold-up to the ECB launching new policy initiatives. These governments may prove incapable of honoring commitments to Brussels under the variety of austerity and bail-out packages they have taken on. Incurable mass unemployment may lead to severe social unrest -- half of Italian youth are ready to leave the country to look for a better life. And sovereign bank risk is not out of the question -- Spain's bank system remains opaque even after significant high-profile corruption cases that even touched the prime minister.

    At the other end of the periphery, Slovenia looks like a relatively stable newcomer -- its risks appear self-contained, and if it does need assistance, it is likely to be small and highly manageable. Slovenia, in short, is not Cyprus.

    Indeed, even Cyprus is no longer Cyprus. The risk of another Cyprus-style crisis is minimal. Cyprus has confirmed that, once it gets in, no one wants to leave the Eurozone – and for all its complaining and chastising of weaker members, Germany can't afford to have anyone flee the currency union.

    On the negative side, these countries suffer from dreadful sentiment, crushing youth unemployment, and broad economic underperformance. Their governments range from unappealing to unstable. Still, Hedgeye's Macro readings have not yet flashed a definite Long or Short signal. We don't rule out the possibility that negative trends in the Periphery could stabilize. If Germany recovers fast enough -- and if France doesn't lose more ground -- there could be a positive contagion effect.

    Investment ideas: For Spain, we would use the iShares Spain (EWP); for Italy, the iShares Italy (EWI). It's too soon to call a Short or Long in these markets. We continue to monitor these economies to see which way the Macro cookie will crumble.