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怎么从欧洲赚到钱

怎么从欧洲赚到钱

Matt Hedrick/Moshe SilverHenry 2013-06-18
欧洲许多地区的失业率仍将高的惊人,负债也将继续处于不合理水平。但这并不是说对多方和空方而言这个问题缠身的市场完全没有任何投资机会。因此,Hedgeye公司逐一分析了德国、法国以及主要的外围国家目前存在的投资机会,为投资者的投资决策提供了一些值得参考的建议。

    葡萄牙:葡萄牙刚刚成功发型了一批10年期政府债券,这让所有人都感到意外,也让很多人都松了一口气。曾经有一段时间,人们曾把葡萄牙视为欧元区最为薄弱的一环。

    葡萄牙政府的债务仍是GDP的122%左右,在欧洲排名第三。它的发债成本仍然较高,只是不像以往那么高。本次发行债券的票面利率为5%-6%,有了明显的好转。葡萄牙有可能希望加入OMT机制。虽然现在就下定论还为时尚早,但葡萄牙政府确实已经展现出了积极姿态。它正在设法削减自身开支,而且仍然在考虑采取紧缩措施。

    在此,我们用这样一个例子进行类比:1999年葡萄牙政府在全国范围内开展了戒毒运动。他们不再把吸毒看作刑事犯罪,而是将吸毒者视为需要接受一系列治疗的病人。虽然这种做法并不会“治好”毒瘾,但外界普遍认为,这项措施是打击毒品犯罪的另一条可行途径。通过在更大范围内减少毒品的危害,再加上积极的治疗后护理,同时让吸毒人员重新融入社会,吸毒对葡萄牙社会的影响明显减弱,包括艾滋病的传播。

    和消除广泛出现的毒瘾类似,治愈全球金融痼疾不实一朝一夕的事,而且也许永远也无法成功。但一定有更为有效的办法来控制毒瘾,同时限制它对社会的危害。毕竟,有志者事竟成。

    我们依然在等待欧洲展现出它的意志力。(财富中文网)

    译者:Charlie

    Portugal:To everyone's surprise -- and to the relief of many -- Portugal just successfully sold a 10-year government note issue. This, in a country that was for a time viewed as the basket case of the Eurozone.

    Portugal still has government debt at around 122% of GDP -- the third-highest in Europe. Its bond issues are still costing it, though not so much as in the past. Coupons are in the 5%-6% range, which is a meaningful improvement. Portugal will likely want to join the OMT mechanism. While it is too early to make a decisive call, the government is showing real initiative, taking steps to cut government spending and still considering austerity measures.

    We leave you with this analogy: in 1999 Portugal adopted a national strategy to fight drug addiction. Drug users were no longer treated criminally, but as clinically sick persons requiring a range of treatments. While it has by no means "cured" drug use, Portugal's program is widely considered a viable alternative to the War on Drugs. The expansion of harm reduction efforts, coupled with aggressive after-care and social reintegration programs, have dramatically reduced the social impact of drug abuse, including HIV infection.

    Like widespread drug addiction, the global financial malaise is not going to be "fixed" – not overnight, and maybe not ever. But there are surely more effective ways to contain the addicts and to limit the harm they do to society. After all, where there's a will, there's a way.

    We are still waiting for Europe to show some willpower.

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