美联储抢走8国峰会风头

    因此，尽管卡梅伦首相尽了最大努力，但大多数人仍然预计本次峰会将再次出现雷声大雨点小的情况，特别是在经济事务上。他们都认为，在立即采取措施从而达到立竿见影的效果方面，本次峰会有可能基本上处于不作为状态。

    美联储会议则不同，即使结果平淡无奇，它也能让局势发生改变。

    所有西方国家的中央银行，特别是美联储，一直都活跃在恢复经济活力、创造就业机会和保持金融稳定的第一线。在其他决策机构未给予支持的情况下，它们总是勇敢地承担重大政策目标，而且会使用存在瑕疵、同时带有浓重试验色彩的工具。因此，对于今后它们在权衡成本-收益时会有哪些变化，以及这些变化对央行管理者保持现状的意愿及其目前和未来的工作成效有何影响，现在确实说不清楚。

    除了听取美联储对经济走势及前景的评估外，本周三还会有许多人把注意力集中在三个问题上，它们是：美联储是否仍打算削弱为市场和经济提供非常规支撑的力度；美联储官员对其试验性政策的“成本和风险”有多大顾虑；美联储在讨论货币政策时是否考虑到了它在全球范围内的不良副作用。

    我觉得美联储将设法重拾支持力度将减弱的论调；它会意识到自身试验性政策的附加危害和意外影响，但在这方面会轻描淡写；对于全球性不利作用，美联储几乎不会予以评述。

    我还觉得，美联储官员将在会议声明或随后的讲话中呼吁其他决策机构为它提供支持。但这样的呼吁将紧跟在G8峰会令人失望的公报之后，而这将是一个莫大的讽刺。

    本周的情况可能让人们再次意识到全球经济政策处于不平衡状态。各国央行忠于职守，但因工具不完整或不完善而受到限制。其他机构能应要求为央行提供补充性政策，但它们在国家和国际层面都受到了政治因素的束缚。

    除非这个根本性的不平衡问题得到解决，否则世界经济增速和就业水平就达不到所需的、而且原本有希望达到的高度；市场也将得不到强劲基本面的持续支撑。（财富中文网）

    作者是太平洋投资管理公司首席执行官兼联合首席投资官。

    译者：Charlie

    So, despite Prime Minister Cameron's best efforts, most expect that, especially when it comes to economic issues, this Summit will again be big on proclamation but risks being largely ineffectual when it comes to immediate measures that make a difference on the ground.

    Not so for the Federal Reserve where even a bland outcome can make a difference.

    Western central banks in general, and the Fed in particular, have been at the forefront of efforts to revive economic growth, create jobs, and maintain financial stability. Lacking the support of other policymaking entities, they have courageously taken on important policy objectives with imperfect and highly experimental tools. As such, there is genuine uncertainty today about the future evolution of the cost-benefit equation, and what this means both for the willingness of central bankers to stay the course and for their current and future effectiveness.

    In addition to listening to the Fed's assessment of economic developments and the outlook, many will look on Wednesday for three specific issues: whether the institution still intends to "taper" the exceptional support it provides markets and the economy; how concerned officials are about the "cost and risks" of their policy experimentation; and whether the negative global side effects are registering inside this important policy deliberating committee.

    I suspect that the Fed will attempt to walk back on its tapering narrative, recognize but downplay the collateral damage and unintended consequences of its experimental policy stance, and convey little about negative global externalities.

    I also suspect that, whether in the official statement or in the remarks that follow, officials will again call for support from other policymaking entities. And the great irony will be that this call well follow a disappointing communique from the G-8.

    This week will likely be another reminder of the world's unbalanced economic policy mix. Central banks are committed, but limited by partial and imperfect tools. Others that can deliver the required policy complement are politically constrained at both the national and multilateral levels.

    Until this basic imbalance is corrected, global growth and employment will fall short of what is both required and possible; and markets will lack the sustained underpinnings of strong fundamentals.

    Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.