股市抛售潮刚刚开始

    现在，我们将注意力转向世界其他地区：真是一场灾难啊。亚洲哀鸿遍野。回顾过去，我们已经警告了一段时间。上周三亚洲股市全线溃退，日经指数（Nikkei）以1.7%的跌幅“领先于”其他亚洲市场指数（但我们仍然不看好日本）。

    至于中国股市，就一个字，烂。我不知道你还能找出什么词来形容它。与此同时，香港恒生指数自1月底来下跌了14.4%。现在，它虽然没有巴西或俄罗斯市场那么烂，但也相当烂。印度股市下跌2.9%；印尼股市下跌3.7%。虽然我们看好菲律宾股市（在遍及新兴市场的这场灾难中，菲律宾是我们感兴趣的一个市场），但我们也卖出了菲律宾股票。我们意识到，这里的研究结论将让位于风险管理需要。

    大家不能固执己见。当宏观趋势占据主导，放弃原有的观点吧。

    欧洲？那里看起来也不好。这不是什么新消息。现在，如果德国综合指数（DAX）突破8013点趋势线，肯定会是一大新闻。这是一个关键点位。欧洲的大部分趋势线都已被突破。富时指数（FTSE）刚刚破了趋势线。因此，如果德国综合指数突破趋势线，我们跟踪的86个国家股市（除了美国）将全部失守趋势线。

    投资者将没有什么地方可以安放资金。因此，在某种意义上，标普500指数将是最后一枝独秀了。盯紧标准普尔500指数的1583点。

    现在的问题是，在什么点位上，股票价格将反映增长预期？我不知道这个问题的答案。这是我们近来试图传达的内容。我们一直在说，第一：不要购买债券，也不要购买大宗商品或者其他6个月来我们不看好的投资。第二：降低股票敞口。这是当前风险管理的要求。

    现在，我的任务不再是宣扬6个月来已为人所知的东西。这已经成为历史。现在，大家需要深吸一口气，等待观望。

    我们将买进的首批投资将包括金融股。我们看好金融股。特别是因为，收益率利差已经达到211个基点，而且还在继续扩大。这是强烈看涨金融类股的一个信号。大家的购买清单应该包括很多金融公司。其次，我们将重拾旧爱——医疗保健和消费行业等侧重消费的公司。

    关注标准普尔500指数1583点的水平。这是关键。如果跌破这一点位，就和最后的这一枝独秀说再见吧。（财富中文网）

    Turning our attention to the rest of the world: What a disaster. Asia is a bloody mess. Go back to the tapes, we've been sounding the alarm here for a while now. Asian markets overnight were a debacle with the Nikkei "outperforming" its peers by only declining 1.7% (no, we still don't like Japan).

    As for China -- just nasty. I don't know what else you would call it. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng is down 14.4% since the end of January. Now it's not as nasty as Brazil or Russia, but it's pretty darn nasty. India is down 2.9%; Indonesia down 3.7%. Even though we like the Philippines, (it's an interesting micro story within the broader disaster which is Emerging Markets) we sold that as well. We realized the research there was going to be trumped by the risk management signal.

    You can't be dogmatic in your stance. When the macro flows take over, get out of the way.

    Europe? It doesn't look good, either. That's not new. Now if the DAX trend line at 8013 breaks, that would definitely be news. That is a critical line. Most trend lines in Europe are broken. The FTSE just broke its trend. So if the DAX breaks, there will not be one -- not one -- out of the 86 countries whose equity markets we follow that will have held its trend line, other than the U.S. stock market.

    Investors are running out of places to put their money. So in a sense, the S&P 500 is the last of the Mohicans. Keep a close eye on the 1583 level on the S&P 500.

    Now the question is at what point do growth expectations in equities get prices in? I don't know the answer to that. That's what we've been trying to convey recently. What we have been saying is No. 1: Don't buy fixed income and don't buy commodities or anything that we haven't liked for six months. No. 2: Take down your equity exposure. That's the risk management order of the day.

    Ranting and raving about what has transpired these last six months is no longer my task. It's history. Right now you take a deep breath. You wait and you watch.

    One of the first things we'll be buying is Financials (XLF). We like the Financials. Particularly with the yield spread at 211 basis points wide and climbing. That's a very bullish indicator for the group. Your buy list should have a lot of financial names on it. After that, we'll go to the old bailiwick which is consumption-oriented names in health care and consumer itself.

    Keep an eye on that 1583 level on the S&P 500 (SPX). It's key. If that breaks, it's bye-bye to the Mohicans.