巴西如何重获投资者青睐

    同时还出现了其他一些情况。首先，过去两个月，从华尔街到伦敦的投资者都在大量抛售新兴市场债券。起初缓慢的抛盘已经逐渐演变成疯狂的出逃，整个新兴债券市场都受到重创，尤其是巴西。第二，美国联邦储备委员会（US Federal Reserve）上个月表示，可能打算在不远的未来上调利率，这个表态让抛售变得更加疯狂。未来美国可能加息以及由此美国投资的回报率可能上升，这样的前景吸引投资者纷纷退出新兴市场，重返美国市场。

    巴西财政部迅速展开行动，防止该国债券和股票市场的外国资本大失血。它首先取消了外国人投资巴西当地债券必须缴纳的6%税率。这项税收是2010年巴西政府为防止巴西货币剧烈波动而实施的。如今取消这个税种后，巴西国内外投资者已经获得公平竞争地位，应当能引来新的投资者。此外，巴西政府最近还将外汇衍生品的税率降低了1%，希望能推高巴西雷亚尔的汇率。

    通常情况下，这样的举措至少应能让抛售稳定下来。曾经由于“外国人附加税”而不愿进入巴西市场的投资者在听到这项税收已经成为历史的那一刻肯定会进入巴西市场。但取消这项税收还不足以吸引投资者回头，原因是巴西大城市的街道上正在爆发抗议和骚乱。

    最近的市场大跌过程中一直站在巴西一边的基金经理们发现，现在更难坚守下去了，因为数百万的巴西人走上街头、关闭港口、造成交通混乱，同时也让巴西政府惶恐不安。对于政府提高车费（这已被取消）的愤怒已演变成一场无领导、无明确目标、无明确议程的民众抗议。引发抗议的原因很多，包括：交通费、原住民印第安人的权力、政府为2014年足球世界杯和2016年夏季奥运会的投资、国家和地方政府腐败、巴西国会正在审议的一项批准医生识别、“治疗”同性恋的议案，等等。

    迄今为止，巴西总统迪尔马•罗塞夫领导的政府在遏制这些抗议活动方面非常失败，导致部分抗议活动已经演变为暴力和骚乱。比如，上周末，带着风帽的抗议者们用螺丝刀和弹弓为武器，四处放火，还攻击了里约热内卢联合会杯（Confederations Cup）足球比赛外执勤的警察。这起事件让巴西政府非常难堪。

    那么，政府该怎么做呢？引发抗议的原因众多，又没有一个真正的领导机构，看起来似乎很难控制。不过，引发抗议的原因虽然各不相同，但它们都有一个源头——腐败和中央政府管理失当。新生的巴西中产阶级受够了巴西恶劣的基础设施、糟糕的医疗体系、超高的税率和落后的教育。巴西经济的快速发展让政府收入持续增长，但这些钱没有进行有效地再投资。事实上，4,000万人能够脱贫是因为大宗商品价格上涨，推动了服务行业的繁荣。巴西政府基本没有采取什么行动来维系经济的繁荣，约40%的所得税也是迄今为止新兴市场经济体中最高的。

    显然，巴西政府需要实行重大改革。首先，巴西总统应当改组内阁，罢免表现欠佳的部长，借此向示威者表达她的善意。她还可以针对所有这些问题、排出一个行动计划，同时阐明解决这些问题的想法。她还可以向巴西民众解释称，这些抗议活动虽然在某种程度上上是可以理解的，但可能会让这个国家遭受经济重击。从里斯本到圣保罗的债券交易员们告诉《财富》杂志称，由于这些抗议活动相关的不确定性因素，他们害怕重返巴西债券市场。去年，巴西获得的外国直接投资约650亿美元，但这个数字在未来数周可能会大幅跳水。

    巴西的抗议活动不会消退，除非政府采取一些积极措施表示它“已经明白了”。巴西政府的老办法是袖手旁观，静观其变。但迄今为止，这套做法并不管用。巴西政府需要把目前的抗议活动看成是宏观社会改革的一部分，进而抓住问题的本质。投资者将在一旁静观其变，直到他们看到巴西采取真正一致的努力消灭腐败，同时以适合这个世界第七大经济体的方式来治理国家。（财富中文网）

    There are a few things going on here. First, there has been a mass sell-off in emerging market debt by investors from Wall Street to London in the last two months. What started out as a trickle of selling has since turned into a stampede for the exits -- with debt markets across the emerging market space taking a pounding, especially Brazil. Secondly, the rout was exacerbated by the US Federal Reserve, which signaled last month that it may be willing to raise interest rates in the not-so-distant future. The promise of higher rates, and, thus, potentially higher returns on U.S. investments, managed to lure investors away from the emerging markets and back to the U.S.

    Brazil's finance ministry has quickly sprung into action to prevent the hemorrhaging of foreign capital from the nation's debt and equity markets. It first eliminated a 6% tax foreigners had to pay to invest in Brazilian local bonds. The tax, put in place by the government in 2010 to supposedly prevent wild swings in the Brazilian currency, now levels the playing field and should draw in new investors. In addition, the government recently cut a 1% tax on currency derivatives in an attempt to boost the value of the Brazilian Real.

    Normally, such actions would have been enough to at least stabilize the sell-off. Investors who had hesitated to enter the Brazilian markets due to the "foreigners tax" would have jumped in the second they heard the news that the tax was history. But the tax changes haven't been enough this time around to lure back investors. That's because of what's going on in the streets of Brazil's largest cities -- protests and riots.

    Fund managers who had stuck by Brazil during the recent market rout will now find it even harder to do so with millions of Brazilians on the street, shutting down ports, creating traffic jams, and scaring the government. What turned out to be outrage at the government for raising transit fares (which had since been reversed) has now become a protest for everything by everyone with no clear leader or agenda. Among the dozens of causes that people are protesting include: transportation costs; Native Indian rights; government spending on the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics; corruption in state and local governments; and a bill in the Brazilian congress that would authorize psychologists to try and "cure" homosexuals.

    So far the government, led by President Dilma Rousseff, has failed miserably to contain the protests, many of which have become violent and chaotic. For example, over the weekend, hooded protesters armed with screwdrivers and slingshots set fires and attacked police outside the Confederations Cup soccer game in Rio de Janeiro. It was a terrible embarrassment for the government.

    So what is the government to do here? With so many different causes and no real leadership, it seems impossible to get control of the situation. But while there are many different causes, they all share a common root -- corruption and mismanagement in Brasilia. Brazil's new middle class is simply fed up with Brazil's shoddy infrastructure, terrible medical system, super high taxes and shoddy education. The government purse continues to expand thanks to the economic boom, but it has failed to reinvest that money in a productive way. Indeed, the 40 million people who pulled themselves out of poverty did so because of a surge in commodity prices that helped fuel a boom in the service sector. The government did little, if anything, to encourage the development of the boom and kept income taxes at around 40%, by far the highest such tax rate for an emerging market economy.

    It is clear that the Brazilian government needs major reform. For starters, the President could send a gesture of goodwill to the protestors by reshuffling her cabinet and firing ministers who have failed to perform. She can also create an action plan that addresses all the causes and sets forth ideas on how to address the problems. She should also explain to the Brazilian people that the protests, while understandably valid to some degree, could be setting the country up to take a big economic hit. Bond traders from Lisbon to Sao Paulo tell Fortune that they are afraid of jumping back into the Brazilian debt markets because of the uncertainty surrounding the protests. Foreign direct investment last year in Brazil was around $65 billion, but is set to take a big dive in the weeks to come.

    The protests in Brazil aren't going away without some proactive steps taken by the government to show that it "gets it." So far, the Brazilian government's usual plan of action, to do nothing and wait things out, isn't working. The government needs to see the protests as part of a larger social revolution and should get to the roots of the problem. Investors will be waiting on the sidelines until they see that Brasilia is making a true and concerted effort to stamp out corruption and govern in a way fitting for the world's seventh-largest economy.