全球局势动荡，美国金价逆势下跌之谜

    最近的一系列抗议活动是因该国政府计划拆毁伊斯坦布尔中心地区的一个广受欢迎的公园引发的。这是每年纪念现代世俗化土耳其国家创始人凯末尔•阿塔图尔克遗产的活动场所。世俗派的土耳其人（其中许多是支持政教分离的虔诚的伊斯兰教信徒）担心随着埃尔多安采取措施控制公民的私人生活，宗教将会侵入到政治事务中。

    斯诺登。政府应该扩大我们认为可接受的范围——媒体应该发现这些极限，同时加以挑战。这样才能营造自由辩论的氛围。爱德华•斯诺登对于美国的情报能力可能并没有造成多少持久的损害，但我们猜测，这起事件的一个连锁效应实际上可能是，危险分子正在设法深入搜寻信息的时候,他们未被怀疑的藏身之地就已经被发现。

    尽管如此，美国政府的所作所为与我们轻率地允许自己受到的对待相比还是不值一提，而我们接受这种待遇甚至不是为了利益，纯粹是为了小钱。还是说，你真的放心让Facebook掌握你的个人信息？它是一家全球性公司，拥有10多亿用户的个人信息，年营收额超过50亿美元（你收不到半分钱，即便它是通过销售你的个人信息而获得营收的），而且这家公司由一个不对任何人负责的人掌控着，他甚至不需要许可证。

    那么，为什么金价在下跌呢？鉴于媒体报道的所有这些不确定和不稳定问题，大家可能会预期黄金可能是被视为避险资产的惟一资产。

    《金融时报》（Financial Times）近日报道称，黄金需求很可能会进一步走软，“因为投资者意识到自己不太需要保护资产免受量化宽松政策的不利影响。”各大对冲基金正在纷纷抛售以前买入（因为当时是明智之举）的黄金。当时他们认为买入黄金是明智之举，因为他们听说，对冲基金大师约翰•保尔森正在买入黄金。而如果你还没有听说过的话，我在此简单介绍一下。保尔森的黄金基金已经下跌了54％，但至少这个错误是他自己犯下的，不像所有那些“跟风”基金，它们的主要研究要点就是发现保尔森现在在买入什么？

    Hedgeye的研究主管达里尔•琼斯最近刚走访加拿大回来，发现那里的基金经理正在纷纷对成功的大宗商品对冲交易进行平仓。琼斯说：“从短期来看，这意味着这些资金将会进一步分散投资到美国股市上，”期望搭上美元走强这个顺风车。加拿大的一位基金经理表示，目前加拿大的大型金矿公司股票在市场上估值过高，如果金价从最近暴跌趋势中迅速反弹回升的话，那么他们过度的风险对冲安排可能会令他们受到不利影响。

    琼斯写道：“全球市场看来似乎正在趋稳，”他指出，就连西班牙10年期国债收益率在5％上方见顶之后，现在也有所回落。琼斯指出，与此同时，尽管美联储频频发布种种预言，大声疾呼，但它还是未能守住美国10年期国债收益率2％的这个关口。 琼斯说：“如果市场真正开始把量化宽松政策的结束反映在价格上，债券市场的大屠杀很可能才刚刚开始。”

    国债情况的另一面，是美国经济的基本实力以及美元走强。加上我们最近已经注意到的其他趋势：新兴市场资金外流（这有利于在美国投资），就业形势持续改善，以及家庭形成步伐加快。

    看来美国利好的经济消息可能足以抵消市场对海外形势的担忧情绪，从而促使黄金的吸引力减弱。在日趋利好的环境中，其他国家的坏消息似乎恰恰再次确认了美国国内的好消息。（财富中文网）

    翻译：iDo98

    The recent protests were sparked by the government's plan to dig up a popular park in the heart of Istanbul, the site of an annual celebration of the legacy of Kemal Ataturk, founder of the modern secular Turkish state. Secular-minded Turks, among them many devout Muslims who support the separation of mosque and state, fear the encroachment of religion into politics as Erdogan takes steps to control his citizens' private lives.

    Snowden. The government is supposed to push the limits of what we find acceptable -- the press is supposed to uncover and challenge. This is what makes free debate. Edward Snowden may not have done much lasting damage to America's intelligence capability -- we suspect one knock-on effect may actually be to turn up unsuspected hiding places as bad actors try to burrow deeper.

    Still, what the government does is nothing compared to what we blithely allow to be done to us for fun -- and not even for profit. Or are you really comfortable with the thought that Facebook (FB) knows your personal information? It's a global company with personal information on over one billion people, taking in over five billion dollars in annual revenues (none of which you receive, even it is generated by selling your personal information), and controlled by one person answerable to no one -- and who doesn't even need a warrant.

    So why is gold going down? With all this uncertainty and instability in the air, you would expect that gold would be perhaps the single asset viewed as a safe haven.

    The Financial Times recently reported that demand for gold is likely to soften further "as investors see less need to insure against QE." Hedge funds are dumping the gold they bought because it was a smart move at the time. They knew it was smart, because they heard that hedge fund legend John Paulson bought gold. And in case you haven't heard, Paulson is down 54% on his gold fund, but at least he makes his own mistakes, unlike all the me-too funds whose main research thrust is finding out, What Is Paulson Buying Now?

    Hedgeye's director of research Daryl Jones recently returned from a tour of Canada, where he found money managers unwinding successful commodity hedges. "In the short run," says Jones, "that means diversifying more into U.S. equities" and looking to ride the updraft from strength in the U.S. dollar. One Canadian manager says Canada's major gold companies are overvalued in the market now and that their overextended hedges could hurt them if gold prices snap back from the latest plunge.

    "Global markets are seemingly stabilizing," writes Jones, noting that even Spanish 10-year bonds have backed off after peaking at over 5%. Meanwhile Jones notes that, despite prognostications and pleading, the Fed failed to hold the 2% yield line on the 10-year Treasury. "If the market truly begins to price in the end of QE," says Jones, "the bloodbath in the bond market is likely in early days."

    The other side of the Treasuries coin is fundamental strength in the U.S. economy and a strong dollar. Add to this other trends we have noted lately: emerging market outflows (good for investment in the U.S.), an improving jobs picture, and accelerated household formation.

    It seems the positive economic news in the U.S. may be enough to offset overseas concerns, making gold less compelling. In an increasingly positive environment, it seems other folks' bad news just reaffirms the good news at home.