量化宽松拥趸请当心候选美联储主席大热门

    实际上，如果萨默斯在5年前当上了美联储主席，量化宽松或许就根本不会发生。他2008年9月发表在《华盛顿邮报》（Washington Post）上的一篇署名文章中称，伯南克或许也该收拾东西回家。由于利率已经处于很低的水平，萨默斯称，要提振经济，美联储能做的事情微乎其微。从那时至今，美联储已购回了2.3万亿美元的国债和抵押债券。以10年期政府债券为衡量标准的长期利率在去年夏季下降到了1.4%，低于2008年9月的3.6%，但最近已回升至接近2.6%的水平。

    但是，萨默斯并不是一直坚定地反对量化宽松。回溯到2011年10月，他还曾写到，Fed加速购买抵押债券可能是个好方法。但这是放在如何拯救美国住房市场的背景之下。而今，房地产价格正在复苏，尚不清楚萨默斯是否支持增加购买债券。

    下面这些内容是我们不知道的：萨默斯对于量化宽松的指责有多少真正关于量化宽松。萨默斯经常表示，美国联邦政府应当借贷更多的资金用于推进基础设施和其他项目。声称美联储及其政策对于促进美国经济的作用潜力有限，但却会带来真正的负面效果，这强化了萨默斯要求增加支出的论点。而且实际上，伯南克有时候也提倡增加支出。

    尽管华盛顿政府没有更多现金用来增加支出，伯南克毕竟成功推行了量化宽松政策。而且，虽然伯南克已经表示，我们或许已接近债券购买计划的终结。他承诺，只要失业率维持高水平，仍将继续执行量化宽松。如果萨默斯相信伯南克过去5年讲过的话，他为什么要这么说呢？（财富中文网）  

    Indeed, if Summers had been Fed chair five years ago, quantitative easing might never have occurred. In September 2008, in an editorial in the Washington Post, Summers suggested that Bernanke might as well pack up his bags and go home. With interest rates already so low, Summers said there was little else the Fed could do to boost the economy. Since then, the Fed has bought $2.3 trillion in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Long-term interest rates, as measured by 10-year government bonds, fell to 1.4% last summer, from 3.6% in September 2008, but have recently rebounded to nearly 2.6%.

    Summers, though, hasn't always been solidly against QE. Back in October 2011, he wrote it might be a good idea for the Fed to step up its purchases of mortgage bonds. But that was in the context of how to save the housing market. Now that real estate prices are recovering, it's unclear if Summers would support further purchases.

    Here's the thing we don't know: How much of Summers' criticism of QE has actually been about QE. Summers has regularly argued that the federal government should be borrowing more money to put toward infrastructure and other projects. Saying that the Fed and its policies have limited potential to boost the economy, and real downsides, strengthens Summers' argument for more spending. And, indeed, Bernanke too, at times, has advocated for more spending.

    But in the absence of more cash to spend from Washington, Bernanke has pushed forward with QE anyway. And while Bernanke has said we might be nearing the end of the bond buying program, he committed to continuing QE as long as unemployment remains high. If Summers believes anything he has said in the past five years, why would he.