冰岛再次成为欧洲的定时炸弹

    但值得注意的是，冰岛在解决自身的经济问题方面几乎没有取得任何实质性的进展。冰岛政府及其银行业只是采用了拖延疼痛的措施，治标不治本。政府在2008年实施的资本管制如今仍然生效，意味着本国公民以及冰岛庞大的退休保险基金只能主要投资于冰岛。与此同时，冰岛消费者仍然很难买到进口产品，只能购买不太理想的本地货，从而给国内经济带来一种人为刺激。同时，高利率使借贷成本高昂。不过，考虑到现在冰岛的“僵尸”银行并没有真正在放贷（它们正为资产负债表上价值数十亿克朗的不良贷款忙得焦头烂额），借贷成本高昂的问题反而显得无足轻重。

    总之，冰岛的实际GDP仍然比金融危机前峰值低10%。而尽管2011年冰岛GDP确实增长了2.9%左右，但增速到去年已经放缓至1.6%左右，今年预计会进一步下滑。这是资本管制丑陋的一面。简而言之，通过限制人们可以购买和投资的对象，即只有冰岛国内的产品和投资机会，人们最终会停止消费。

    事实上，冰岛的国内消费和投资均较危机前的水平下降了20%，而且跌势还在延续。冰岛人纷纷选择偿还债务，这虽然是好事，但它的代价是经济增长放缓。尽管债务有所减轻，但居民和企业的债务水平仍然很高，分别为GDP的109%和170%。

    因为经济增长放缓而备感沮丧的冰岛人在5月份投票选出了一个新的联合政府，它正是经济繁荣时期当权的政府。新政府在竞选期间承诺将解除资本管制，同时迫使银行削减居民的抵押贷款本金。可以理解的是，这个承诺动摇了评级机构对冰岛的观点。标准普尔（S&P）6月份将冰岛的信用评级前景下调为负面，理由是担心新政府会落实这项计划。IMF也表达了类似的保守观点。

    冰岛选择的余地有限。如果它保持资本管制，经济将继续萎缩；若解除资本管制，国内资产价值便会下跌，因为冰岛人会将资金转移至境外。新政府称，外国直接投资将抵消资本外流的影响，但他们要么是极度乐观，要么完全是被误导了。解除资本管制将导致房价和其他冰岛资产价格大幅下跌，从而导致新一轮的银行业恐慌。在这种混乱之后，冰岛政府依然认为外国投资者还会纷来沓至吗？

    由于冰岛经济体量小，有些人可能想当然地认为这个国家并不是欧洲机器的一个重要齿轮。但冰岛正面临着许多同样困扰着更大经济体的问题。例如，在欧洲主权债务危机的余波之中，几个欧洲国家都实施了资本管制措施。这些国家选择何时及如何解除这种管制将对欧元币值产生深远的影响，从而影响到整个欧洲大陆经济的完整性。

    此外，冰岛的银行和西班牙银行业也如出一辙，因为它们都曾为已经破裂的房地产泡沫添柴加火。资本管制解除后，冰岛的银行如何处理不良贷款问题可能会对投资者如何看待西班牙及其银行业问题产生重大影响。冰岛银行业预计将迫使资者和大额储户承担约75%至100%的亏损。这些投资者和大额储户中有许多是同时买卖主权债务和主权债务保险的对冲基金。这些对冲基金采取的报复方式可能会同样用在意大利或法国，而这两个国家的主权债务占GDP比例正不断上升。

    冰岛不容忽视。毕竟，它是第一个在全球金融危机期间崩盘的国家，也是第一个实现GDP反弹的国家之一。它的小体量和简单的经济结构意味着它无法将自身的问题掩盖在一堆混淆视听的货币行动中。这意味着，相对于陷入类似困境的大国，冰岛会早早地面临残酷的现实。因此，投资者将密切关注冰岛新政府的举动。如果它开始摇摇欲坠，欧洲的其他地方可能将是下一张倒下的多米诺骨牌。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默  

    But hang on: Iceland has made little, if any, real progress in tackling its economic issues. The government and its banks have simply employed measures designed to delay the pain, not cure the disease. Capital controls imposed by the government in 2008 are still in effect, forcing its citizens, and, more importantly, the nation's massive pension fund, to invest mainly in Iceland. At the same time, Icelandic consumers still find it hard to buy foreign goods, forcing them to buy less-desirable local equivalents, giving an artificial boost to the domestic economy. Meanwhile, high interest rates have made borrowing expensive. A moot point, considering Iceland's now-zombie banks aren't really lending; they are too busy dealing with fallout from the billions of krona worth of bad loans on their books.

    All in all, real output in Iceland remains 10% below the pre-crisis peak. And while GDP did grow at around 2.9% in 2011, it slowed to around 1.6% last year and is expected to fall even further this year. This is the ugly side of capital controls. In short, by restricting what people can buy and invest in, i.e. only Icelandic goods and opportunities, individuals eventually stop spending.

    Indeed, domestic consumption and investment in Iceland are both down 20% from their pre-crisis levels and continue to fall. Icelanders are instead choosing to pay down their debts, which, while positive, comes at the expense of economic growth. And despite the debt paydown, household and corporate debt remain high, coming in at 109% and 170% of GDP, respectively.

    Icelanders, frustrated with the slowdown in economic growth, voted in a new government coalition in May, the same that was in power during the boom years. The new government promised during the campaign to lift the capital controls and to force banks to cut people's mortgage principals. This has understandably shaken the rating agencies. S&P lowered its outlook on Iceland to negative in June on concern that the new government will go through with its plans. The IMF has expressed similar reservations.

    Iceland has few good options. If it keeps the capital controls in place its economy will continue to shrink; lift them and asset values will fall as Icelanders ship their cash out of the country. The new government says that foreign direct investment will make up for the capital outflows, but they are either extremely optimistic or completely misguided. The lifting of capital controls will cause housing prices and other Icelandic assets to fall dramatically leading to yet another bank panic. In the wake of this chaos the Icelandic government believes foreign investors will come strolling in?

    Iceland is small; it's easy to see why some might not think the country an important cog in the European machine. But Iceland is facing many of the same issues afflicting much larger economies. For example, capital controls have been instituted in several European nations amid the fallout from the sovereign debt crisis. How and when those nations choose to lift such controls will have a profound impact on the value of the euro and thus the economic integrity of the entire continent.

    Furthermore, Iceland's banks are not unlike those in Spain as they both financed housing booms gone bust. How Iceland's banks deal with the problem of its bad loans after capital controls are lifted could have a major impact on the way investors choose to look at Spain and its bank issues. Iceland's banks are expected to force losses of around to 75% to 100% on their investors and large depositors, many of which are hedge funds that also buy and sell sovereign debt and the insurance linked to it. How these hedge funds will retaliate could be replicated in Italy or in France where sovereign debt continues to mount relative to the size of their economies.

    Iceland shouldn't be ignored. After all, it was the first country to implode during the financial crisis and was one of the first ones to see its GDP rebound. Its small size and simple economy means that it is less able to bury its problems under a pile of confusing monetary actions. This forces Iceland to face the music much sooner than larger nations in similar predicaments. As such, investors will be watching what Iceland's new government does intently. If it begins to falter, the rest of Europe could be next.