黄金热降温后的末日生存者

    不过，看来金价下跌对那些最著名的黄金狂热者几乎甚至根本没有影响。国家地理频道（National Geographic）真人秀节目《末日生存者》（Doomsday Preppers）执行制片人艾伦•麦迪逊就说：“一点儿影响也没有，总之影响就是零。对他们来说，黄金的内在价值和市场波动无关。他们确实会查看（市场上的黄金价格），但大多都是在寻找买进机会。”这就是黄金狂热者和一般黄金多方的最终区别。

    和这些黄金狂热者关系良好的媒体和分析师都在宣扬这种无视市场的做法，两者一直在使用的说辞包括金价跌幅很小，是买入机会，是政府阴谋所致，或者这三条理由的任意组合。贝克非常依赖政府阴谋论心态，这也成了他自己的标志。金价暴跌后，贝克宣称“情况有些不对”，进而又说“这是有人串通一气。让金价处于下行状态，以便中央银行储备黄金。”有些人表示自己没有蒙受任何损失，他们坚持说“纸”黄金和“实物”黄金不同，这是信奉末日生存理论的黄金狂热者的一个重要特点。麦迪逊指出：“他们都在谈实物交收，而且不投资（黄金）衍生产品或基金。”最后一点非常荒谬，一些黄金狂热者表示，金价暴跌是通缩的预兆，挫败了美联储的政策，因而印证了他们的核心观点，即集权式政策无法控制经济，而且我们所有人都应该为狂风暴雨的到来做好准备——其思路转换之快就像变魔术一样。

    这一点特别神奇，不光是因为黄金的日常价格暴跌，还因为本打算用黄金来抵御的恶性通胀也一直没有出现，甚至是在量化宽松实施了五年之后。实际上，我们甚至都没有看到稍高于平均水平的通胀率。据一些分析师讲，这就是因为量化宽松对消费支出的影响微乎其微。

    展望未来，主流市场对黄金发出的信号依然阴晴不一。量化宽松的规模可能会下降，只是我们还不能确定它将在短期还是中期内出现。对整个市场来说，它就意味着黄金的抗通胀功能可能会变得更不重要。但如果这能让他们更多地持有黄金，坚信大灾难就要到来的黄金狂热者似乎真的不在乎那几个美元。麦迪逊指出：“对他们来说，复苏是暂时的，也是难以实现的。他们的观点是，复苏要以我们进行借贷为基础。”通胀仍是他们眼中的妖魔鬼怪。茶党成员希罗称：“我们发现，只要不是硬资产，美联储的数字化印钞行为就会削弱其价值。我们知道，房地产、贵金属和大宗商品的价值只会上升，而货币的价值将下降。”

    这些想法和实际市场之间的关系很难量化。受格伦•贝克、亚历克斯•琼斯和罗恩•保罗影响的人非常多，但他们都是个人，而不是机构投资者。而且显而易见的是，如果他们就是左右市场的因素，在这些人不分青红皂白地坚持黄金是唯一可靠的保值手段的情况下，美元汇率就会一直呈上升趋势，原因是经济本身具有自我应验性。与之相反，正如主流经济学家所指出的，当前局势表明，人们对整体经济的信心正在增强，而且资本有希望出现“从实物到股票”的转移，从而为人们的建设性活动提供支持。

    But it seems the decline of gold has had little or no impact on the beliefs of the most prominent extreme goldbugs. "None. Zero, zip, zilch," says Alan Madison, executive producer of National Geographic's Doomsday Preppers reality show. "Gold for them has an inherent value that is independent of market fluctuations. They do watch [the market price of gold], but mostly just for chances to purchase." Which ultimately is what separates the goldbugs from more run-of-the-mill gold bulls.

    This indifference to the market is being fed by goldbug-friendly media and analysis, which has insisted that the decline is irrelevant, a buying opportunity, the product of a government conspiracy, or some mix of the three. Relying heavily on the broader conspiracist mindset that defines him, Beck declared after the gold crash that "something doesn't smell right," further saying that "This is collusion. It is keeping the price of gold down for the sovereign central banks so they can store the gold." Some have totally dismissed the losses by insisting on the difference between "paper" gold and "real" gold, an important distinction for goldbugs of the prepper variety. "They all take physical delivery, they don't invest in [gold] derivatives or funds," says Madison. Finally and most paradoxically, some goldbugs have said that the gold crash is a harbinger of deflation, a defeat for Fed policies and therefore -- presto change-o -- a validation of their underlying thesis that centralized policy can't control the economy, and we should all prepare for Thunderdome.

    This is all particularly amazing since, not only has the daily price of gold plummeted, but the hyperinflation it is supposed to hedge against hasn't shown its face, even after five years of QE. In fact, we haven't even seen slightly above-average inflation. According to some analysts, this is simply because it has had minimal effect on consumer spending.

    Going forward, signs for gold in the mainstream market remain mixed. QE is likely headed for a taper, even if we're not yet sure whether that's in the near or middle term. This means gold's function as an inflation hedge for the broader market is likely to become less relevant. But apocalyptic goldbugs seem genuinely unconcerned with mere dollars if it makes it possible for them to hang onto more gold. According to Madison, "This recovery is temporal, elusive to them. It's based on us borrowing money, as far as they're concerned." Inflation is still the bugaboo: "The folks here recognize that the Fed's digital printing of money is reducing the value of any non-hard asset. We realize that property, precious metals, and commodities will only increase in value while currency will drop," says Tea Party member Cillo.

    It's difficult to quantify the relationship between these ideas and the real market. Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, and Ron Paul have huge combined audiences, but these are individual rather than institutional investors. And obviously, if they were market drivers in themselves, their unsubtle insistence on gold as the only decent store of value would have kept the dollar price trending upwards indefinitely as the economy itself shut down in the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy. By contrast, as mainstream economists have pointed out, the current scenario reflects increasing faith in the overall economy and a hopeful shift of capital "from rocks to stocks" -- toward support for constructive human endeavors.