唱衰专家：中国经济最低将放缓到5%

你的预期听起来也不是那么有利于美国经济。

    我觉得如果新兴市场跌至谷底，美国也难以独善其身。如果中国经济崩溃，世界上没有哪个经济体能幸免于难。但这不是我的基本观点。我的基本观点是情况将逐渐转变，在这个过程中，大型新兴市场的走势会放慢，与此同时，信心和资金会不断回到美国和日本等发达国家。

    那么现在你会把资金投向何处呢？

    我最看好那些正在进行经济改革、而且建立了新的领导层的国家，包括菲律宾、墨西哥和巴基斯坦。摩根士丹利投资管理最近一直在向东欧投资。我们认为这个市场有价值。波兰等国的基本面相当好，而且有迹象表明欧洲正在摆脱经济衰退。

那么你认为欧洲的问题已经得到解决？

    欧洲经济处于失衡状态，所以永远也不会出现V型反弹。欧洲国家的债务仍然过高，人口结构比美国还糟糕。但摆脱危机对波兰等国来说应该是件好事。

让吉姆•奥尼尔失业让你感到骄傲吗？

    没什么可说的，我听说他是退休。

拉古兰•拉贾（另一位印度经济学家，以向美联储发出金融危机警告而著称）最近成为印度央行行长。你嫉妒吗?

    （大笑）不。我很满意自己的现状。拉贾非常聪明，但这份工作难度很大。印度的基本面问题非常严重，就算一名出色的央行行长也难以解决。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

What you are predicting doesn't sound so positive for the U.S. economy either.

    If the emerging markets have a complete crash, then I don't think the U.S. can do well. No economy in the world will survive if China's economy implodes. But that's not my base case. What I am talking about is a gradual shift away where you see the large emerging markets slow down at the same time that confidence and capital is returning to the U.S., Japan, and other developed nations.

So where you would you be putting your money now?

    My best bets are countries where economic reform is happening and where there is new political leadership. That's happening in the Philippines and Mexico and Pakistan. Morgan Stanley Investment Management has recently been putting money into Eastern Europe. We see value there. The fundamentals of Poland and others are quite good, and there are signs that Europe is pulling out of its recession.

So you think Europe's problems are behind it?

    Europe will never have a V-shaped recovery because of its imbalances. There's still too much debt and the demographics are worse than in the U.S. But the fact that they are pulling out of a recession should be good for Poland and others.

Are you proud of driving Jim O'Neil out of a job?

    No comment. I heard he retired.

Raghuram Rajan [another Indian economist who is famous for warning the Fed about the financial crisis] was recently picked to be the head of India's central bank. Jealous?

    (Laughs) No. I am happy where I am. Rajan is a very smart guy, but he's got a tough job. Indian's fundamental problems are very deep, deeper than anything a good central banker can fix.