投资者对叙利亚局势反应过度

    与此同时，担心叙利亚可能报复的情绪也已经过头。事实上，叙利亚领导人不太可能对邻国(以色列)或美国展开反攻，因为这样的举动只会弱化政府相对于反对派的地位。过去两年以色列在它的土地上展开有限打击时，叙利亚也是默默承受，因为它知道任何反击都将带来巨大的痛苦。而且，叙利亚政府一直忙着打击国内力量，没空搭理外部世界。

    因此，市场如果聪明的话，就应该忽视叙利亚的宣传机器，说什么如果西方胆敢在它的土地上发起攻击，就会立即激怒整个地区。现实是叙利亚在地区内没有盟军，当然，可能伊朗是个例外，但即便是这一层关系也是脆弱的。伊朗出头替叙利亚攻击美国军队的概率几乎是零，这么做根本不值。除此之外，不同于普通看法，伊朗可能会欢迎叙利亚Bathist政权的倒台，因为它几乎肯定会被一个(民主选举的)伊斯兰政府所取代。德黑兰的毛拉们能更容易控制，情况就跟现在的伊拉克差不多。

    与此同时，美国和欧洲早已对伊朗实施了严格的石油禁运，因此德黑兰没有经济力量来组织一场打击。当然，德黑兰可能会威胁停止向国际市场出售石油，推高全球范围的油价。但这同样不值得。自从去年西方加大了制裁力度，伊朗已无法再承受损失更多的石油收入。国内经济瘫痪，它需要这些钱发放伊朗人期盼的补贴。补贴如果进一步减少，就可能引发伊朗国内广泛的反抗，这是毛拉们非常害怕的情形。

    现在的叙利亚政府就像挂在一颗钉子上，而且是一颗松动生锈的钉子。美国攻击它的化学武器将会消除内战的不确定因素。当然，在未来几周内，叙利亚和美国都会竭力吓唬对方，动辄威胁要展开大规模的攻击和反攻，但市场不能被他们唬住了。（财富中文网）  

    Meanwhile, fears of Syrian reprisals are totally overblown. Indeed, Syrian leaders are unlikely to launch a counterattack against its neighbors (Israel) or the U.S. as such a response would only serve to weaken the government's position vis-a-vis the Syrian opposition. Syria has stood by and taken its lumps as Israel launched limited attacks on its soil over the last two years as it knows that any counterattack would unleash a world of pain. The Syrian government has its hands full fighting its own people, it can't take on the world as well.

    Therefore, the markets would be wise to ignore Syria's propaganda machine, which claims that a Western attack on its soil would instantly inflame the region. The reality is that Syria has no allies left in the region, save for probably Iran, but even that relationship is a tenuous one. There is pretty much zero chance that Iran would attack U.S. on behalf of Syria -- it simply isn't worth it. Besides, contrary to popular belief, Iran would probably welcome the fall of the Bathist regime in Syria as it would almost certainly be replaced with one with a (democratically elected) Islamist government that the Mullahs in Tehran could more easily control, as is currently the case with Iraq.

    At the same time, the U.S. and Europe already have a strict oil embargo against Iran, so Tehran has no economic leverage to prevent an attack. Sure, Tehran could threaten to stop selling oil into the international markets, driving up oil prices across the world, but, again, it just isn't worth it. Iran can't afford to lose one dime of oil revenue since the West tightened sanctions last year. It needs that money to support the economically crippling subsides that Iranians have come to expect. Any further pullback could ignite a popular revolt inside Iran, something that the Mullahs are deathly afraid of.

    The Syrian government is hanging on by a nail -- a loose and rusty one. A U.S. assault on its chemical weapons pile will take an unstable element out of what has become a nasty civil war. Sure, Syria and the U.S. will try to scare one another in the coming weeks with talk of big attacks and counterattacks but the markets should know better.