保尔森：中国“农转非”影响全球

    当前情况下债券投资者也拥有很牢固的既得利益。政府接管GSE时，房地美和房地美在全球发行的证券有5.4万亿美元（33.32万亿元人民币），其中1.7万亿美元（10.49万亿元人民币）的持有者是各家央行，另外3.4万亿美元（20.98万亿元人民币）在美国投资人手里。这些证券就像水流一样穿行在我们的金融体系中。社区银行、养老基金和货币市场基金都持有GSE证券。虽然政府没有明确提供担保，但人们基本上认为它们等同于美国国债。

    设想一下，如果（一家GSE）未能成功发行证券，那么价格下跌会让人们对GSE证券的信心受到怎样的冲击。这种情况不堪设想。幸运的是，雷曼兄弟倒闭前我们设法稳住了房利美和房地美，这一点非常关键。因为这两家GSE的规模是雷曼兄弟的9倍。

你会怎样对GSE进行改革？

    我们要努力的方向是一个市场环境不受政府补贴左右的机制。我们必须大幅压缩GSE的业务范围，不仅不让它们持有按揭，还要限制它们的按揭担保规模。可以采取的方法包括控制首套房购房者的按揭水平，限制房利美和房地美所能支持的按揭规模，对借款人收入做出限制，或者三者并行。

    要点在于我们必须确保房利美和房地美的公司债务不再含有政府担保意味。

如果房利美和房地美维持原状会怎么样？

    如果不受私营市场限制，就可能再次出现房地产投机泡沫，这些泡沫的破裂可能再次引发巨额损失，同时导致经济陷入困境。

你认为应该对银行进行拆分吗？

    （现在）金融体系的集中度越来越高。不过目前大型银行得到了更好的监管，它们的资本金更加充足，风险管理也更为完善。美联储建议对最大的几家银行提出更高的资本金要求，我非常赞成这一点。大量的资本金和流动性缓冲是防范公司倒闭的最佳手段。得益于《多德-弗兰克法案》（Dodd-Frank Act），现在监管部门已经有了决定权，这让它们得到了清算任何已经倒闭的大型金融机构的工具，这一点很重要。

    和房利美、房地美这样的银行机构以及影子银行相比，目前还有更大的问题等着我们去解决，具体来说就是为工业企业和银行提供短期批量资金的货币市场基金和回购市场。

财政部长的角色为什么这么重要？

    每天我们都可以做很多工作，从而让情况变得有所不同，刚上任时我低估了这一点。但总会有什么地方出现经济问题，而财政部长的任务就是充当国内外所有经济问题的首席顾问和发言人。

    今天，全球经济越发一体化，而且我们几乎可以确定世界上总会出现经济和政治波动。任何问题都包含着经济因素，环境、贸易、国土安全都是如此。

卸任后你在做什么？

    我回到了芝加哥。我在那里度过了大部分职业生涯。我们家在芝加哥还有一所房子，就在我妈妈的房子旁边，它一直是我们的固定住所。我想到高盛工作的原因之一就是它在芝加哥的办公室很棒。现在我在大自然保护协会（Nature Conservancy）工作，我在那儿成立了拉美自然保护理事会（the Latin American Conservation Council），担任理事会的主席。这个理事会的成员都是美国和拉美的企业和政府负责人，它的工作是解决中美和南美的重大自然保护问题。

    Bond investors also have a strong vested interest in the status quo. When we stepped in to put the GSEs into conservatorship, there was $5.4 trillion in Fannie and Freddie securities held globally—$1.7 trillion were held by central banks around the world; $3.4 trillion held in the US, where they flowed like water through our financial system. Community banks, pension funds, and money market funds all held GSE securities. Even though there was no explicit government guarantee, they were treated almost like the equivalent of Treasury bonds.

    Imagine if [a GSE] auction had failed and how a price drop would have impacted confidence in their securities. It was unthinkable. Fortunately, we were able to stabilize Fannie and Freddie before Lehman came unglued—that was essential. The GSEs were nine times bigger than Lehman.

How would you reform the GSEs?

    We need to work toward a system where government subsidies don't set the terms for the market. We have to dramatically rein in the missions of the GSEs by not only eliminating their ability to hold mortgages, but limiting the mortgages they can ensure. You can do that by limiting the mission to first time homebuyers, by the size of the mortgage Fannie and Freddie can back, borrower income, or all of the above.

    Importantly, we need to make sure there is no implied government backed guarantee on Fannie and Freddie corporate debt.

What happens if nothing changes at Fannie and Freddie?

    Without the discipline of a private market, we are in danger of creating another speculative housing bubble, which would again result in massive losses and economic hardship when it bursts.

Do you think the banks should be broken up?

    [There is now] increased concentration in the financial system. But today, the big banks are better regulated, better capitalized and have better risk management. I'm very supportive of the Fed's proposal for the largest banks to have higher capital requirements. Big capital and liquidity cushions are our best defense against failure. Importantly, thanks to Dodd-Frank, regulators now have resolution authority that gives them the tools to liquidate any large, failing financial institution.

    We have bigger problems to solve right now than the banks including Fannie and Freddie and the shadow banking system, meaning money market funds and the repo market, which provides short-term wholesale financing to industrial companies and banks.

What makes the Treasury Secretary role so important?

    When I came in, I underestimated was how much could be done to make a difference everyday. But there's always an economic issue somewhere; and the Treasury secretary's role should be to serve as the primary advisor and spokesman for all domestic and international economic issues.

    Today's world is one of increasing economic integration and one where we're almost certain to have economic and political volatility. Everything from the environment to trade to national security issues has an economic component.

What did you do after you left Washington?

    I came back to Chicago, where I spent most of my career and my family has kept a home and maintained our permanent residence next to my mom's house. One of the reasons I wanted to work at Goldman Sachs was because the firm had a strong Chicago office.

    I'm working with the Nature Conservancy where I've launched and chair the Latin American Conservation Council, which is comprised of business and government leaders from the U.S. and Latin America, working on major conservation challenges in Central and South America.