东京奥运会难创日本经济奇迹

    如今，这场灾难已经过去了900天，住在临时住所里的人还是只有1.6%搬进了公共房屋。21.5万名幸存者只有448间房，大部分人只能暂栖于狭小、不保温不隔热的临时房屋里。

    去年10万亿日圆的灾后重建预算花在了哪里，对此日本中央政府似乎不知如何解释。与此形成对比的是，东京市政厅宣布，准备拿出大笔资金在首都新建、改建10个体育场馆，迎接奥运。

    为了筹措奥运经费，东京从税收收入中拨出了4000亿日圆，总额还不及日本中央政府两天的支出。至少，从最初来看，奥运会不会加剧这个国家早已沉重的债务负担。但奥运会预算历来总是不断膨胀，至少是最初估算结果的四倍。

    东京将对几处较陈旧的场所重新装修，甚至会将国家体育馆按知名建筑师扎哈.哈迪德的设计，改成自行车头盔的形状。但别指望会出现类似北京奥运会前大兴土木的盛况。

    日本并不打算新增地铁线路，只是准备将东京两大机场——羽田机场和成田机场连接起来。这项支出应该远低于1964年巨变时期的支出(相当于当时GDP的3.6%)，当时推出了包括新干线在内的很多雄心勃勃的计划。按东京政府官方估算，获益最大的将是服务业，增收额将达到约6500亿日圆，其次是建筑业，4700亿日圆。

    东京企业家兼评论家泰瑞•劳埃德说：旅游业通常被宣称为奥运会的大赢家，但历史上并不是这样。“一个常常被提到的数字是增加800万游客。但鉴于他们只停留28天，而东京只有95,000间酒店客房，很难想象这么多人都能睡下，除非突然增加大量酒店——当然，这也有可能。”

    不管是否大兴土木，很难想象当很多人预计日本经济增长停滞的时候，企业会成为救星。

    事实上，鉴于日本企业界近年来的表现，商界似乎不太可能为大多数人带来经济增益。据日本央行(Bank of Japan)称，日本最大的一些公司如今坐拥巨量现金，但却对首相安倍晋三近年来上调工资和增加投资的呼吁充耳不闻。看上去，这次比赛带来的“面包”可能比以往还要少。（财富中文网）

    Nine hundred days after the disaster, only 1.6% of people living in temporary homes have moved to public housing. That's a mere 448 homes for 215,000 survivors, now refugees in cramped, uninsulated, jury-rigged accommodation.

    While Japan's central government seems at a loss to explain why there is so little to show for last year's 10 trillion yen disaster rebuilding budget, Tokyo's city council says it is ready to splurge on the building and refurbishing of 10 sports venues in the capital to prepare for the Olympics.

    To pay for the games, Tokyo has already set aside 400 billion yen garnered from its tax revenues, a total that is less than two day's spending by Japan's central government. Initially, at least, it won't add to the country's vast debts. Historically, Olympic budgets do have a habit of ballooning by at least four times from their original estimates.

    Tokyo will rehabilitate several older venues -- even turning its National Stadium into the shape of a bike-helmet, as designed by starchitect Zaha Hadid. But don't expect the kind of frenzied construction boom that accompanies most Olympics, such as Beijing's.

    With no new subway lines, and a modest proposal to link Tokyo's two airports -- Haneda and Narita -- expenditures will not come close to the spectacular transformative days of 1964 when bold programs (equivalent to 3.6% of GDP at the time) such as the Shinkansen high-speed rail line, were launched. The services industry will get the biggest bump, of about 650 billion yen, according to official Tokyo government estimates, followed by construction, with 470 billion yen.

    The tourism industry is often touted as a major winner of the Olympic games, but history does not bear that out, says Tokyo-based entrepreneur and commentator Terrie Lloyd. "One number being bandied about is 8 million extra tourists. But given that they only last 28 days, and there are only 95,000 hotel rooms in Tokyo, it's hard to see where they'll all sleep, unless there is a sudden boom in hotel building -- which, of course, there could well be."

    Construction boom or no, it's hard to see corporations coming to the rescue when many see Japan's growth stalling.

    Indeed, Japan Inc. seems unlikely to translate into an economic boost for the population at large, given its recent track record. According to the Bank of Japan, the nation's top corporations are sitting on massive piles of cash, undermining Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's yearlong call to boost wages and investment. It looks like the circus this time around will be accompanied by less "bread" than usual.