黄金即将迎来最黑暗的日子
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另外，即使叙利亚阳奉阴违，美国国会是否会投票支持军事行动仍是未知之数。 新一次债务上限可能不会引起市场波动 我们还要考虑另一场可能影响黄金走势的危机：债务上限。 美国人都记得，自2011年以来已经出现两次债务上限。第一次几乎令美国经济陷入灾难，所有主要评级机构都下调了美国3A级别的主权评级。这个问题通过削减1万亿美元可自由支配开支、同时结合预算封存得到解决。第二次发生在奥巴马连任之后不久，跟第一次一样，共和党和民主党达成协议，再次提高了债务上限。 今年10月中旬，美国又将迎来新一次债务上限。由于之前的债务上限问题最终都得到了解决，因此，在第三次债务上限的辩论过程中，市场很有可能不会出现波动。果真如此，黄金的下行压力还会延续。不过，当然还有一种可能性，新一次债务上限问题出现不同的局面：共和党人说，他们只有在预算让步的情况下才会同意提高债务上限，而奥巴马政府则表示不会做任何让步。 最终，两党很有可能会让步。但正如《华盛顿邮报》（ Washington Post）的以斯拉•克莱恩所指出的，现在让他恐慌的是：“没有人可以告诉我，在我们债务违约之前，两党中的一方或双方的立场将发生什么样的变化。” 这种不确定性可能会金价走高，但它还没有，至少目前来说是这样。（财富中文网） |
And even if the offer isn't serious, it's uncertain if Congress would vote for military action. Another debt ceiling debate could be a snooze There's another crisis to consider that could sway the direction of gold: The debt ceiling. As Americans will recall, there has been not one deadline -- but two -- since 2011. The first almost pushed the economy into catastrophe, with a major ratings agency taking the nation's stellar triple A rating away. The issue was resolved through $1 trillion in discretionary spending cuts combined with sequestration. The second one followed shortly after Obama's re-election, and like the first one, Republicans and Democrats came to an agreement; the debt ceiling was raised. Come mid-October, the nation will approach another deadline. It's likely that the market might snooze through the third debt ceiling debate, as the previous ones were ultimately resolved. That would keep downward pressure on gold, but there is of course a possibility that the latest debt ceiling drama may turn out differently: Republicans say they will raise the debt ceiling only in return for budget concessions, while the Obama administration says it won't offer any. Eventually, either side will likely budge, but as the Washington Post's Ezra Klein points out, what alarms him now is that "no one can tell me how one or both of those positions will change before we breach the ceiling." That uncertainty may send gold higher, but it hasn't, at least not so far. |
