大预测：美国债务上限危机的4个恐怖情形

    疯狂回购

    还记得《大而不倒》（Too Big to Fail）电影中的那一段吗？高盛（Goldman Sachs）CEO劳埃德•布莱克费恩（伊万•汉德勒饰)正在和汉克•保尔森（威廉•赫特）说话，保尔森说，“我回头打给你，通用电气（GE） CEO杰夫•伊梅尔特打电话进来了，”布莱克费恩说：“伊梅尔特到底为什么打电话给你?”

    原因是回购。美国国债支撑着所谓的回购市场，这是银行和企业经常用到的隔夜拆借市场的主要抵押品来源。有些人担心，违约的美国国债不会再被视为合格的抵押品，将限制短期借贷。我们至少会看到贷款利率飙升，使得贷款不那么有吸引力。2011年8月曾经短暂地出现过这种情况。

    作为短期美国国债的重要持有人，货币市场基金可能也会遇到麻烦。如果投资者担心短期美国国债，他们可能会撤出货币市场基金。这些基金是商业票据市场的主要供应者，而商业票据市场是大企业获得融资的另外一个重要来源。（财富中文网）   

    Repo madness

    Remember the part in the movie version of Too Big to Fail when the guy playing Goldman Sachs's CEO Lloyd Blankfein (Evan Handler) is talking to Hank Paulson (William Hurt) and Paulson says "I'll call you back because GE CEO Jeff Immelt is calling." And Blankfein says "Why the heck is Immelt calling?"

    The reason was repos. Treasury securities underpin the so-called repo market, the main source of collateral for the overnight lending market that is often tapped by banks and corporations. Some are worried that the defaulted government bonds would no longer be considered good collateral, restricting short-term lending. At the very least we could see a spike in lending rates, making it less attractive to borrow. That's what happened briefly in August 2011.

    Money market funds, which are one of the big holders of short-term Treasuries, could also have problems. If investors get nervous about short-term Treasuries they could pull out of money market funds as well. And the funds are the main contributors to the commercial paper market, another important source of funding for large corporations.