中国为什么不会插手美国债务上限之争

    同时，尽管中国持有的美国政府债券可能多得令人难以置信，但中方并没有多少手段可用。中国政府可以抛售美国国债，但这样做可能会让后者的价格一泻千里，从而导致中国未抛售的那些美国国债贬值。此外，华盛顿智囊机构彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）高级研究员尼古拉斯•拉迪认为，无论卖掉多少美国国债，中国政府都很难找到替代性的投资对象。由于欧债危机迟迟得不到化解，中国一直不愿购买欧洲债券。同时，在市场深度和流动性方面，能和美国国债市场匹敌的市场并不多。

    作为中国经济专家，拉迪还指出，在最坏情况下，也就是如果美国政府确实违约，中国则可能从长远角度出发而重新估算所购美国国债的价值。而且就在民主、共和两党争论政府债务问题之际，这种情况或许已经出现。近年来，中国一直在设法改变外汇储备投资中美国政府债券一家独大的局面，以提高回报率同时降低风险。《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）的分析数据显示，截至今年6月份，中国国家外汇管理局所持外汇资金中，美国政府债券约占35%，而2010年6月份这一数字为45%。

    如果中国减持美国国债的趋势继续下去，就算未来美国的政府债务争端依然存在，若干年后中国可能蒙受的损失也不会像今天这样巨大。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie  

    And while China may hold incredible amounts of U.S. government debt, it doesn't have much leverage. China could sell off Treasury debt, but then that risks sending bond prices into free fall, lowering the value of whatever Treasuries China may have left. And whatever Treasuries China sells, it will be hard for officials to replace its investments, says Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, the Peterson Institute for International Economics. China has been reluctant to buy European debt amid its own ongoing debt crisis, and there aren't many other markets to turn to that are as deep and liquid as the U.S. Treasury market.

    Lardy, an expert on the Chinese economy, adds that in the worst-case scenario if the U.S. does indeed default the country may re-evaluate its investments in U.S. Treasuries for the long-term. But that may already be happening separate from the Washington debt fight. In recent years, China has been trying to diversify away from U.S. government debt to seek higher returns and reduce risk. As of June, about 35% of the foreign-exchange funds held by China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange were in U.S. government debt, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis, compared with 45% in June 2010.

    If this continues, many years from now if the debt fights in Washington continues, China may have less at stake than today.