美国债务上限难题：先还债，还是先发社保

    当然，出现上述情况的条件是财政部决定把老奶奶放在中国和其他债券持有人之前。这样的考验很快就会到来。10月17日之后，美国政府的账户里就将只剩下约300亿美元（1843.5亿元人民币）资金，再加上平均每天约70亿美元（430.15亿元人民币）的递延税收入，这就是美国政府所能动用的全部资金——而且这种情况也不会维持很久。到11月初，财政部就要为联邦医疗保险（Medicare）拨款约170亿美元（1044.65亿元人民币）；为社保拨款250亿美元（1536.25亿元人民币），而且此后每周还需要为社保提供120亿美元（737.4亿元人民币）资金；此外还要为现役和退伍军人，包括补充保障收入（Supplemental Security Income）领取人，拨款250亿美元。11月15日，政府还得向债券持有人支付约310亿美元（1904.95亿元人民币）利息——届时就可能出现资金缺口。

    在这种情况下，美国政府有可能推迟还债时间，直到获得资金或者债务上限问题得到解决——它会有什么样的反应将主要取决于市场做何反应。此外，接下来会发生什么完全没人说得准。为了老奶奶和中国着想，但愿我们永远也不用知道。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie   

    That is, of course, if the Treasury decides to put grandma first in line in front of China and other bondholders. The test will come sooner than later. After the 17th the U.S. will only have around $30 billion in its account. It receives on average around $7 billion a day in revenue from withholding taxes. That revenue, combined with the $30 billion, is all the money the U.S. can live on -- it won't last very long. At the beginning of November the Treasury will need to pay out some $17 billion to Medicare; $25 billion to social security (with another $12 billion weekly thereafter); and $25 billion for military and veteran pay, including those receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). On November 15th the government will have to pay around $31 billion in interest due to bondholders -- it probably won't have enough cash to cover it.

    The government could then delay payments on its debt until it has the money or until a deal is worked out -- how it responds will be dictated largely on how the market responds. Beyond that, it is really anyone's guess as to what could happen next. For grandma and China's sake, let's hope we never find out.